Editors BAFTA Film Awards predictions slugfest: Lots of ‘Oppenheimer’ and ‘Poor Things,’ a little bit of everything else [WATCH]

What will the list of winners at this Sunday’s British British Academy of Film and Television Arts (better known by its acronym BAFTA) Film Awards look like? A lot like the forthcoming Academy Awards, predict Gold Derby senior editors Marcus James Dixon, Denton Davidson and Daniel Montgomery, news and features editor Ray Richmond and encyclopedic awards expert extraordinaire Tariq Khan.

During their lively debate this week, they both individually and collectively foresaw a coronation for “Oppenheimer” in the Best Picture and Best Director (Christopher Nolan) categories as well as in several acting and crafts lineups and numerous honors for “Poor Things” (including Best British Film, costume design and production design). Not that they were all in agreement/alignment. The discussion almost grew a little heated a few times. But it seems this is not a year when radical dissent dominates the predictions. Watch their colorful slugfest above.

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There was complete consensus in a handful of BAFTA categories: Best Picture and Best Director (“Oppenheimer” and Nolan, respwectively, across the board), British Film (all pick “Poor Things”), Best Supporting Actor (“Oppenheimer’s” Robert Downey Jr.), Best Documentary Feature (“20 Days in Mariupol”) and Best Foreign Film (“Anatomy of a Fall”). “The reason that ‘Oppenheimer’s’ so safe (for Best Picture) is that there’s no clear alternative,” Khan believes. “It’s not even clear what would be second here in the voting. There’s no point in even debating it.” The same sentiment certainly carried over to director, where DGA Award victor Nolan is widely expected to not only take the BAFTA but the Oscar as well – and, in general, to sweep through awards season. “If Nolan were an American, he’d still be safe,” Khan adds. “The fact that he’s British makes him that much safer.”

SEECould Paul Giamatti (‘Holdovers’) upset Cillian Murphy (‘Oppenheimer’) at the BAFTAs like at Critics Choice?

Things get more interesting, however, in Best Actress, which – missing Oscar co-favorite Lily Gladstone of “Killers of the Flower Moon” – is seen as a two-way race between Emma Stone for “Poor Things” and Sandra Hüller for “Anatomy of a Fall.” “I think this will be Emma,” Montgomery predicts, “but if you’re Gladstone, I think you’re rooting for Sandra here, because it would be harder for Sandra to win the Oscar than it would be for Emma.” Davidson is going with Stone as well “but Hüller is a very strong second for me. Richmond is also looking at Stone continuing her winning streak after taking the category at the Golden Globes and Critics Choices.

Both Dixon and Khan, however, are going with Hüller to win for actress. “She’s a German actress, and she’s done so many British films,” Dixon notes, “and I just think that with all of the love at BAFTA for ‘Anatomy of a Fall,’ it’s going to fuel Sandra.” In picking Hüller, Khan emphasizes, “She’s the more prestigious pick. She’s European. She’s art house. And her film is so widely acclaimed. And for Emma Stone to win her second BAFTA, she’d be put in the same league as Frances McDormand and Meryl Streep and Jane Fonda and Shirley MacLaine. I don’t know that she’s quite there just yet.”

SEEWatch out for Emily Blunt (‘Oppenheimer’) at the BAFTAs

Moving on to Best Actor, four of the five debaters are going with Cillian Murphy for “Oppenheimer.” “I think Cillian’s got this one,” Richmond offers. “I think his being Irish gives him the home continent advantage in a close race with Paul Giamatti for ‘The Holdovers’.” But Dixon points out, “I disagree with Ray yet again. I do think Paul Giamatti is winning here, and part of the reason is I already have ‘Oppenheimer’ winning eight BAFTAs already even without Cillian. That’s a lot. And I see Cillian Murphy as king of a weaker frontrunner, whereas Giamatti is universally beloved and in a movie that people really love.”

Indeed, Montgomery cautions that being British or Irish doesn’t guarantee an actor or actress a BAFTA win against an American, citing the example of Colin Farrell’s somewhat shocking loss a year ago to Austin Butler. “I don’t think Giamatti loses the Oscar if he can win BAFTA,” he adds.

SEECillian Murphy (‘Oppenheimer’) will win at BAFTAs on his way to the Oscars

A third hotly contested race is Best Supporting Actress, which will again test the American-vs.-European theory. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, like Stone, won in her category at both the Globes and Critics Choices for “The Holdovers,” but is facing off at the BAFTAs against the British-born Emily Blunt for “Oppenheimer,” not to mention the British-born Rosamund Pike for “Saltburn.” The general feeling was that Randolph is poised to repeat, but it’s a far from a certainty. “I have Da’Vine right now, but this is a very interesting category,” admits Davidson. “I’m going with the Oscar frontrunner now, but you never know what could happen.” Dixon too is picking Randolph but acknowledges, “I could see her losing this.” So could Khan, he is in fact picking Blunt and could even see Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”) pulling off an upset.

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