While we’re all still fully engrossed in what’s happening with the first week of 2024 NFL Free Agency, it’s really not too early to think about how this will impact next month’s 2024 NFL Draft.
While nothing has really swayed us from thinking that the Chicago Bears will take quarterback Caleb Williams, a few big dominoes have fallen that do shape how we think the first 10 picks will play out in April. Nothing is ever concrete, but you can connect the dots and begin to suspect what might happen.
From one team solidifying its plans to likely take a quarterback and another team taking themselves out of the quarterback conversation, here are our five biggest takeaways for how these first few days of free agency have influenced what NFL teams might be thinking on draft night.
The Patriots are probably taking a quarterback
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The Patriots haven’t necessarily been locked in to taking a quarterback with the third-overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, but signing Jacoby Brissett to a one-year deal is a huge tell. Barring a shock, it sure looks like New England will be finding its quarterback of the future next month.
Who that player will be is to be determined, as the Washington Commanders pick at No. 2 and will assuredly take a quarterback as well. It’ll most likely be either Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels, with J.J. McCarthy the dark horse in the race. Just pencil in quarterback for New England either way.
The Falcons probably aren't taking a quarterback
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The team that did basically shut down the possibility of drafting a quarterback in the first round is the Atlanta Falcons, who agreed to sign free agent Kirk Cousins to a monster deal this week.
The Falcons were the favorites to land one of the second wave quarterbacks, led by McCarthy and supported by Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. With Atlanta automatically in win-now mode, the idea of taking a quarterback with the eighth-overall pick has basically evaporated. It’s much more likely they’ll either add a defensive starter or another wide receiver for Cousins to throw to on Sundays.
They’ll also be a spot for teams who may want to trade up for X position, including quarterback if someone like McCarthy makes it to eight.
The Titans look likely to land an offensive tackle
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The Titans signing wide receiver Calvin Ridley to a blockbuster contract this week most likely takes them out of the running to land one of the draft’s top receivers. Instead, watch for Tennessee to go after its left tackle of the future. Joe Alt (above), Taliese Fuaga and Olumuyiwa Fashanu represent the best options in this class, and we won’t be shocked to see one of those guys get taken at No. 7 where the Titans currently reside.
However, if your team needs a wide receiver, it may have to move up to get one of the top guys because of what the Los Angeles Chargers did on Wednesday.
The Chargers are in play for a wide receiver (like Malik Nabers)
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The Chargers cutting veteran wide receiver Mike Williams on Wednesday for cap relief firmly puts Los Angeles in the conversation to draft a new receiver with the fifth-overall pick.
Nabers is the most likely fit, as he could be a true top option for quarterback Justin Herbert for the years to come. Sure, Los Angeles took wide receiver Quentin Johnston in the first round of the draft last year, but Keenan Allen may not be long for the Chargers after this season and Johnston might be more of a really good second option to Nabers as the long-term top starter.
Los Angeles could also consider a new right tackle for Herbert or a defensive player, but it feels like parting ways with Williams could open the door for someone like Nabers in the top five.
David Bakhtiari could determine what the Jets do at No. 10
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After the Green Bay Packers cut Bakhtiari this week, everyone automatically assumed that Aaron Rodgers would want him to sign with the New York Jets.
Signing Bakhtiari would probably take New York out of the running of drafting one of the top tackles in this class, positioning them to perhaps take a pass catcher like tight end Brock Bowers or one of the draft’s top receivers. It could also move them to drafting another defensive player.
Either way, what Bakhtiari chooses to do this offseason could play a big role in how the final pick of the top 10 goes on draft night. Him joining the Jets would shift things around a bit.
