Red Sox

What oddsmakers are projecting for the Red Sox and some of their top players for the 2024 season

Oddsmakers have a similar view of the team that many fans have entering the season.

By Conor Roche

March 24, 2024

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Red Sox fans might not seem to know it, but Opening Day for the 2024 MLB season is just days away.

They begin their season Thursday against the Mariners in Seattle, starting the year off on a 10-game road trip. The Red Sox eventually make their way back to Boston on April 9, holding their home opener against the reigning American League East champion Orioles.

As the Red Sox have been predicted to finish in last place in the American League East by many experts entering the season, oddsmakers seem to agree with them. Here’s what oddsmakers are projecting what the Red Sox and some of their top players will do in the 2024 MLB season.

(All odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Win total: 77.5
Fewest wins in MLB: +6000 (eighth-best odds)
Best record in MLB: +12000 (tied for 22nd-best odds)
To make playoffs: Yes +275/No -360
To win American League East: +1700 (fifth-best odds)
To win American League: +3000 (11th-best odds)
To win World Series: +6500 (21st-best odds)

Sportsbooks feel the same way about the Red Sox that many of their fans do entering the 2024 season, giving them the longest odds to win the AL East. The Red Sox are also among the teams with the longest odds to win the American League pennant and the World Series.

However, the Red Sox’ odds to win those titles are just slightly worse than what they were last year. Still, their +6500 odds to win the World Series is their worst entering a season since at least 1985, according to SportsOddHistory. Their odds to win the American League are also their worst since they’ve had entering a season since 1967, when they had +10,000 odds before surprisingly winning the pennant that year, per SportsOddHistory.

The projected win total is right in line with what the Red Sox’ record has been over the last two seasons. They finished with 78 wins in both years, showing some postseason promise early in each season before petering off in the final months of the regular season. But it’s the lowest projected win total that the Red Sox have had entering a season since at least 1997, per SportsOddHistory.

There might be some who view that the Red Sox are destined to be among the worst teams in baseball, or even the worst team in baseball, this season after a disappointing offseason. But they would have to have a major falloff from the last two seasons to finish with a record that’s typically the worst in baseball. In the last five 162-game seasons, the team with the worst record has won roughly 50 games on average.

Additionally, oddsmakers project seven teams to finish with a worse record than the Red Sox’, including the Athletics, whose win total is set at 57.5.

For those who might be a bit more optimistic about the team, the Rangers had slightly better odds to win the World Series last year entering the year than the Red Sox do entering this season. Texas held +5000 odds to win the World Series at the start of the 2023 season, which was the longest preseason odds for the eventual World Series winner in 20 years.

Still, some of the top World Series favorites are within the AL East. The Yankees and Orioles are tied for the fourth-best odds to win it all (+1100) while the Blue Jays have the 10th-best odds (+2000) to win the title.

Rafael Devers

To win American League MVP: +2800 (13th-best odds)
Home run total: 33.5
To be MLB home run leader: +2500 (tied for 13th-best odds)
RBI total: 101.5
To be MLB RBI leader: +2000 (tied for 11th-best odds)
To be MLB hits leader: +3000 (tied for 15th-best odds)
To be MLB runs leader: +4000

Oddsmakers are projecting another big year for the Red Sox’ star slugger.

In terms of homers and RBIs, they’re actually projecting Devers to hit nearly the same number he did in both categories last year. He finished with 33 homers and 100 RBIs in 2023, which were both the best marks on the team.

Devers has only also cleared his projected home run total once in his career, although he has two other 30-plus homer seasons. He’s also cleared his projected RBI total twice.

Analytical models have similar projections for Devers entering 2024. Baseball-Reference projects that Devers will hit 29 homers and 90 RBIs, falling just short of the oddsmakers’ home run and RBI totals. But FanGraphs’ Steamer, which is the analytic website’s primary projection system, is a bit more optimistic for Devers, predicting that he’ll finish the season with 36 homers and 103 RBIs.

Devers would need to take a pretty big leap though in homers if he wants to lead all of baseball this season. He’s never finished in the top 10 in homers before. However, he’s had three top-10 finishes for the most RBIs in a season. He also has one top-five finish for both hits and runs scored in a season.

Devers has also never finished in the top 10 in American League MVP voting. His best finish came in 2021, when he was voted 11th.

Brayan Bello

To win American League Cy Young: +5500
Win total: 10.5
To be MLB wins leader: +5000

The Red Sox’ Opening Day starter has the best odds on the team to win the American League Cy Young, but they’re still pretty long odds at +5500.

Entering his second full MLB season, Bello showed some promise in 2023, going 12-11 with a 4.24 ERA in 28 starts. Baseball-Reference projects another similar season for Bello, predicting that he’ll go 9-10 with a 4.28 ERA. Steamer has almost the same ERA projection for Bello (4.29) as it predicts he’ll go 11-11. The big difference between the two is that Steamer believes Bello will pitch 182 innings this season while Baseball-Reference projects the right to only throw 143 innings.

Other notable odds

Nick Pivetta odds to win American League Cy Young: +10000
Ceddanne Rafaela odds to win American League Rookie of the Year: +1500 (seventh-best odds)
Kenley Jansen odds to win American League Reliever of the Year: +2500
Alex Cora odds to win American League Manager of the Year: +1400
Nick Pivetta win total: 9.5
Triston Casas to be MLB RBI leader: +6500

Rafaela has the best odds among any Red Sox player to win an award entering the 2024 season. As one of the top prospects in the team’s system, Rafaela showed some flashes of exciting play in his 19-game stint in the major late last season. He slashed .241/.281/.386 with two homers and three stolen bases.

The 23-year-old has been even more impressive though during spring training. He’s hit .275/.327/.569 with three homers, eight RBIs, and two stolen bases in 19 games. His play was good enough to earn a spot on the Opening Day roster, with Cora praising Rafaela’s defensive versatility as a reason why he made the big league roster.

Pivetta is second-in-line to Bello in the Red Sox’ rotation entering the season. He had an emergence later in the 2023 season after moving to the bullpen in a long relief role, going 10-9 with a 4.04 ERA on the year. He went 5-4 with a 3.30 ERA over 16 appearances (eight starts) in the second half of the season.

Casas, surprisingly, isn’t listed among the dozens of favorites for many odds. The 24-year-old was arguably one of the best first basemen in baseball toward the end of last year, hitting .317/.417/.617 with 15 homers in 54 games over the second half of the season.