Salt Lake City was good to Arizona in more ways than one.
The double-digit wins over Long Beach State and Dayton would have been plenty sufficient, for survival is paramount. But the Wildcats also caught a break with Clemson’s victory over Baylor, which created a more favorable matchup in the Sweet 16, and with the nature of their own performances.
Six different players scored in double figures for Arizona, establishing a broad base of confidence for later rounds.
Whether the cause is foul trouble or injuries or matchups or an unusual bounce, circumstances could put the Wildcats’ fate in the hands of any player on the court at a given time.
One shot to spark a rally.
One shot to beat the clock.
One shot to advance.
The likelihood of success increases if confidence is high, which brings us back to Salt Lake City.
All five starters scored in double figures against Long Beach State, with Kylan Boswell’s career-high 20 points leading the way.
Two days later, Caleb Love took the lead with 19 points against Dayton and was joined in the double-digit realm by three other players, including reserve Jaden Bradley.
(If you’re curious: Four Clemson players have hit double digits thus far.)
All in all, Arizona shot 46.4 percent from the field and 39.6 percent from 3-point range in the two victories, with 36 assists and 24 turnovers — impressive numbers given the tournament pressure, neutral crowds and unfamiliar shooting backgrounds.
Offensive efficiency and balanced scoring are central to the Wildcats’ lofty position in our Sweet 16 power ratings.
(All times Pacific)
1. Connecticut
Results: beat Stetson 91-52 and Northwestern 75-58Next up: vs. San Diego State in BostonTipoff: Thursday at 4:39 p.m./TBS or truTVComment: No offense to the other teams in Boston, but UConn fans can book their flights to Glendale for the Final Four. The defending champs are the team to beat until proven otherwise. (Psst: Nobody will prove otherwise.)
2. Purdue
Results: beat Grambling State 78-50 and Utah State 106-67Next up: vs. Gonzaga in DetroitTipoff: Friday at 4:39 p.m./TBS or truTVComment: The Boilermakers have the most dominant force in the sport, Zach Edey, and history on their side: The only other No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 turned around and won the national title the following year (Virginia in 2019). Can Purdue make it two-for-two?
3. North Carolina
Results: beat Wagner 90-62 and Michigan State 85-69Next up: vs. Alabama in Los AngelesTipoff: Thursday at 6:39 p.m. (approx.)/CBSComment: Scoring is never a problem for the Tar Heels. The difference this year — and what should worry Alabama, Arizona and others — is the enhanced level of defense played by Armando Bacot, RJ Davis and Co.
4. Arizona
Results: beat Long Beach State 85-65 and Dayton 78-68Next up: vs. Clemson in Los AngelesTipoff: Thursday at 4:09 p.m./CBSComment: The first three words that come to mind when we consider the matchup against Clemson: Give the points. (The Wildcats are favored by 7.5, if you’re wondering.)
5. Duke
Results: beat Vermont 64-47 and James Madison 93-55Next up: vs. Houston in DallasTipoff: Friday at 6:39 p.m. (approx.)/CBSComment: The dismantling of James Madison was on the short list of most impressive performances by any team in the 52 games played thus far. The Blue Devils were so good, in fact, that we now view them as the team to beat in the South.
6. Houston
Results: beat Longwood 86-46 and Texas A&M 100-95 (OT)Next up: vs. Duke in DallasTipoff: Friday at 6:39 p.m. (approx.)/CBSComment: Speaking of teams to beat in the South, the Cougars were extremely fortunate to survive their second-round affair with Texas A&M. Point guard Jamal Shead is our favorite player in the tournament, but he cannot carry the top seed by himself.
7. Creighton
Results: beat Akron 77-60 and Oregon 86-73 (2OT)Next up: vs. Tennessee in DetroitTipoff: Friday at 7:09 p.m. (approx.)/TBS or truTVComment: The Bluejays were one point from the Final Four last year and have a better team this time around with a terrific trio of wing Baylor Scheierman, guard Trey Alexander and center Ryan Kalkbrenner. Also, the Hotline picked Creighton to reach the Final Four (along with Arizona, Houston and UConn), and we remain quite comfortable with that projection.
8. Iowa State
Results: beat South Dakota State 82-65 and Washington State 67-56Next up: vs. Illinois in BostonTipoff: Thursday at 7:09 p.m. (approx.)/TBS or truTVComment: The ISU team that beat Washington State by 11 is good enough to beat Illinois by three and lose to UConn by 17. But hey, the Elite Eight would be a terrific achievement.
9. Marquette
Results: beat Western Kentucky 87-69 and Colorado 81-77Next up: vs. N.C. State in DallasTipoff: Friday at 4:09 p.m./CBSComment: The tournament is all about perimeter play, and Marquette’s Tyler Kolek is better than any point guard in the Sweet 16 not named Jamal Shead, who happens to be in the same region. An Elite Eight matchup would be something to behold.
10. Gonzaga
Results: beat McNeese State 86-65 and Kansas 89-68Next up: vs. Purdue in DetroitTipoff: Friday at 4:39 p.m./TBS or truTVComment: A team that was on the NCAA bubble six weeks ago is playing with house money in the Sweet 16. That won’t solve Gonzaga’s Zach Edey problem, but it’s a nice complementary piece to the broader survival equation.
11. Tennessee
Results: beat Saint Peter’s 83-49 and Texas 62-58Next up: vs. Creighton in DetroitTipoff: Friday at 7:09 p.m. (approx)/TBS or truTVComment: Tennessee was sizzling in early March on its way to winning the SEC regular-season title but hasn’t been the same team since. Unless guard Dalton Knecht is unstoppable — that’s always a possibility — the Vols are headed home Friday night.
12. Illinois
Results: beat Morehead State 85-69 and Duquesne 89-63Next up: vs. Iowa State in BostonTipoff: Thursday at 7:09 p.m. (approx)/TBS or truTVComment: Good chance Illinois-Iowa State is the best of the Thursday games, largely because the other three have significant blowout potential.
13. San Diego State
Results: beat UAB 69-65 and Yale 85-57Next up: vs. Connecticut in BostonTipoff: Thursday at 4:39 p.m./TBS or truTVComment: The Aztecs won’t be intimidated by UConn after facing the top seed 51 weeks ago in the NCAA championship. Although the Huskies won by 17, it was a five-point game with five minutes remaining. Of course, that means SDSU will have UConn’s full attention, which isn’t a good thing.
14. Clemson
Results: beat New Mexico 77-56 and Baylor 72-64Next up: vs. Arizona in Los AngelesTipoff: Thursday at 4:09 p.m./CBSComment: We didn’t expect Clemson to outlast Baylor, so kudos to the Tigers for not blowing that big lead (although they came close). But nothing about the performance suggested they can match Arizona basket for basket for 40 minutes.
15. N.C. State
Results: beat Texas Tech 80-67 and Oakland 79-73Next up: vs. Marquette in DallasTipoff: Friday at 4:09 p.m./CBSComment: The only double-digit seed still standing has won seven consecutive elimination games — five in the ACC tournament and two in the NCAAs. We don’t expect the Wolfpack to make it eight-for-eight. The basketball gods aren’t that magnanimous.
16. Alabama
Results: beat Charleston 109-96 and Grand Canyon 72-61Next up: vs. North Carolina in Los AngelesTipoff: Thursday at 6:39 p.m. (approx.)/CBSComment: Four steps to victory over the Tar Heels: 1) close eyes, 2) cross fingers, 3) hope point guard Mark Spears has a lights-out performance and 4) pray that North Carolina plays like East Carolina. Otherwise, it’s adios.
*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716
*** Follow me on Twitter/X: @WilnerHotline
*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.
