By Brendan Marks, Brendan Quinn, Brian Hamilton, CJ Moore, Dana O’Neil, Kyle Tucker, Nicole Auerbach, Joe Rexrode and Justin Williams
Sometimes, surviving and advancing is mostly about problem-solving. Like when Houston found itself down four fouled-out starters in overtime against Texas A&M, or NC State needed oxygen to get through an overtime against Oakland in its seventh game in 12 days.
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Every one of the Sweet 16 games is going to present its own unique problems. Here are the big questions facing every team in the regional semifinals as they look to get to Glendale, Ariz., for the Final Four.
In alphabetical order
Alabama
Are the Crimson Tide … defending?
On March 24, in a second-round NCAA Tournament game, Alabama put forth its second-best defensive effort of the entire year. Grand Canyon got swept up in chaos and pace and almost lawless physicality and wound up not scoring for the final four minutes, posting 61 points total. The best Crimson Tide effort of the season? Way back in November when it held South Alabama to 46 points. In between? Well, suffice it to say the performances added up to the No. 101 defense in the land as of Monday morning, per KenPom.com. In other words: Not great.
So which is it, when Alabama meets North Carolina (No. 16 offense nationally, as of Monday) in a Sweet 16 game on Thursday? Nate Oats believes his group is trending in the right direction at the right time, understandably, but one game is not proof. It’s not even necessarily a sign. It’s just an auspicious data point. If the Crimson Tide can complement its high-octane attack (No. 4 nationally) with regular stops on the other end, yes, that is the makeup of a Final Four-level team. But they’ve only done so a handful of times all season. Which version of the Alabama defense shows up in Los Angeles is one of the most consequential variables of the entire Sweet 16. — Brian Hamilton
Arizona
Can Kylan Boswell hit the high note?
Facing the second-highest remaining seed, it might be tough for Arizona not to look past sixth-seeded Clemson and onward to an Elite Eight matchup with either North Carolina or Alabama. But Arizona needs to stay the course and remain locked in gear. That starts with Boswell. Can the 18-year-old deliver consistent play and guide these loaded Wildcats from the point guard spot? When Boswell is at his best, Arizona is arguably the best team in the country not named Connecticut. When he’s not, Tommy Lloyd’s team can look awfully vulnerable. Few players in the country have as dramatic win-loss splits as Boswell. The sophomore, who reclassified as a high school recruit to enroll early at Arizona a year ago, averages 11.3 points (44.1 percent on 3s, 46.7 percent on 2s) with 4.0 assists in the teams’ 27 wins. He averages 4.7 points (15.2 percent on 3s, 26.6 percent on 2s) in eight losses. — Brendan Quinn
Clemson
Can Chase Hunter keep this up? And can P.J. Hall stay out of foul trouble?
Clemson lost its first and only game in the ACC tournament by 21 points to Boston College. Hunter, the team’s senior point guard and third-leading scorer played 31 minutes and had just two points, shooting 0 of 10 from the field.
“I felt like I let my team down. I let the whole university down, to be honest,” Hunter said of that performance last weekend. “But coming into this tournament, I was fired up.”
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It shows. Hunter had one 20-point game during the regular season, back on Feb. 14. Then he put up 21 in the opening-round win over New Mexico and another 20 in the second-round upset of Baylor.
“Toward the end of the season, Chase was arguably the best two-way guard in the ACC,” said fellow senior P.J. Hall after Sunday’s win to send the Tigers to the Sweet 16. “Coming here, he’s playing like arguably the best two-way guard in the country. It’s incredible.”
Hunter’s ascendence was critical to Clemson’s Sweet 16 berth, largely because of Hall’s struggles. The team’s leading scorer and a first-team all-ACC big man was saddled with foul trouble last weekend, playing just 19 minutes in each of the team’s two tournament wins, with just 25 points and six rebounds combined. Clemson’s offense, top-25 according to KenPom’s adjusted efficiency, can keep pace with most teams when it’s clicking, and the defense was solid against Baylor, limiting the Bears to 39 percent from the floor and 25 percent from beyond the arc. But Hall’s production through the past two games won’t be enough against a balanced Arizona side. No matter how good Hunter plays. —Justin Williams
Connecticut
Do the Huskies have any weaknesses?
It doesn’t seem like it! It’s pretty crazy that UConn just won its second-round game by 17 points … in a game that didn’t ever feel close … and shot just 3-of-22 from beyond the arc (13.6 percent). That didn’t matter! That’s a horrendous shooting performance that would doom pretty much any other elite team, and it was a non-issue for the Huskies because they got whatever they wanted inside, and their big three controlled the game. Defensively, they’re great, and it seems difficult to imagine that San Diego State, Illinois or Iowa State will have an answer for Donovan Clingan, who swatted away eight blocks against Northwestern. Dan Hurley spent a lot of time last weekend talking about how the Huskies need to be bulletproof — meaning, that they are so good in so many areas that they can survive an off night in one. Or that they can survive a near-perfect performance from an opponent. Hurley felt that UConn was bulletproof against Northwestern, and considering the 3-point shooting woes, it’s actually a pretty great case for it. It also seems quite unlikely that the Huskies will shoot as poorly in a highly anticipated rematch of last year’s national championship game with San Diego State. Especially essentially playing at home and especially with a coach like Hurley who is hyper-focused on every little mistake UConn makes so it won’t make it a second time. Short of injuries or massive foul trouble, I’d be shocked if the Huskies don’t advance out of Boston. — Nicole Auerbach
Creighton
Can Creighton win the Breakthrough Bracket?
Are we sure the selection committee doesn’t consider storylines when they assemble the tournament field? Because you gotta be kidding with these Midwest Regional semifinal matchups: Purdue vs. Gonzaga and Creighton vs. Tennessee. Four teams that, for all their success, just haven’t quite busted through in the tournament. Mark Few’s team is making its ninth straight Sweet 16 appearance but has never won it all. The storyline of the tournament is the Boilermakers’ redemption tour after losing to three straight double-digit seeds. And Rick Barnes has a well-established reputation for always making, but rarely going deep in, the tournament. Then there are these Bluejays, who lost in arguably the most agonizing way possible last season. On a controversial foul call with 1.2 seconds left in the Elite Eight against San Diego State. To be that close to the program’s first Final Four and watch it slip away was devastating. But when stars Baylor Scheierman, Trey Alexander and Ryan Kalkbrenner decided to run it back this season, they did so on a mission for redemption. Not even a four-point deficit in the final 30 seconds of regulation last week against Oregon in the second round could stop them. Scheierman sent the game to overtime, the Ducks forced a second OT and Creighton ran away from there. The Big Three combined for 60 points and 30 rebounds and played 149 of a possible 150 minutes among them. Now, to complete their mission, they’ll have to get by a Tennessee team also still searching for that program’s first Final Four. Motivation level: extremely high. – Kyle Tucker
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Duke
Will the same competitiveness hold up against better competition?
After Duke’s 38-point blowout over James Madison in the second round, Jon Scheyer said what all Duke fans were hoping to hear: “Our guys came out with such a great competitiveness, and they were obviously ready to play.” The Blue Devils jumped all over the Dukes from the opening tip, and the game was effectively over only a few minutes in. Vermont hung around a little longer in Duke’s first-round matchup, but it was largely the same script: a vastly superior team exerting its will in dominant fashion. Those are the kinds of encouraging results Duke needed, especially after lackluster effort in its previous two games: a home loss to rival UNC, which cost Scheyer’s team a share of the ACC regular-season title; and an ACC tournament loss to NC State (which potentially awaits in the Elite Eight.) Following both of those games, Scheyer openly questioned his team’s competitive fire — and Duke’s players said the same in frustrated postgame locker rooms. That led Scheyer to have individual and team meetings last week, to assess where his team was mentally. Clearly they worked — but it’ll be tested more than ever before in the Sweet 16. Houston — which survived an incredible buzzer-beater, overtime, and four starters fouling out to advance to the Sweet 16 — is arguably the most mentally tough team in America, and its top-ranked defense reflects that. Duke has the talent to win, especially given the Cougars’ injuries, but will it have that same unflinching mindset against drastically better competition? — Brendan Marks
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'I don’t know if we expected this': Duke looks the part in blowout of James Madison
Gonzaga
What’s the plan against Zach Edey?
Perhaps no team in the tournament looked as offensively dominant as Gonzaga coming out of the first and second rounds. The Zags scored 86 and 89 points in wins over McNeese State and Kansas, shooting 59.0 percent from the field and making 18-of-36 3s in Salt Lake City. It’s tempting to ask if they can keep it up in Detroit. But in reality, Gonzaga’s chances boil down the question nearly every title contender, including UConn, has to ask itself. Can the Zags stop Edey and Purdue? Because if they can’t, the road ends here. Gonzaga’s defense has been suspect all season and now faces the No. 3-ranked offense in the country. A roster with no one over 6-foot-10 has to figure out how to dig and double and drop on Edey without allowing a barrage of 3s from the nation’s leading 3-point offense. It’s no small task, no pun intended. — Quinn
Houston
Do the Cougars have enough depth?
Houston is going back to the Sweet 16 thanks in no small part to a clutch overtime free throw by …walk-on Ryan Elvin?!? All credit to Elvin, who is a great story and a senior leader on this Cougars team, someone who has earned the respect of his coaches and teammates. But he’s also not a player you want on the floor in crunch time of an NCAA Tournament game.
It underscores the most glaring issue for Houston: its lack of depth. Granted, having four of your five starters foul out — as was the case in the second-round OT win over Texas A&M — would create problems for any team, but this roster doesn’t have enough healthy scholarship players to go five-on-five in practice. Terrance Arceneaux and Joseph Tugler are done for the season. Ramon Walker Jr. just returned from a month-long knee injury in time for the first round. Starting forward J’Wan Roberts is a walking, rebounding copay, with a wrapped hand and bruised shin. Considering physicality with which this team plays, it is always one unfortunate bump to Roberts or one persnickety officials crew away from playing shorthanded.
The combination of defense and Jamal Shead will keep Houston in most games, but we saw in the Big 12 championship loss to Iowa State what happens when this crew runs out of steam and able bodies against a formidable opponent: it lost by 28. That’s the razor edge the Coogs have to navigate the rest of the way, starting with a matchup against a talented Duke squad. — Williams
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Down to its last man, Houston finds way to survive. 'Our kids are built for that'
Illinois
Can the Illini keep guarding?
Illinois has been so good offensively this season that defense has been optional. The Illini’s defensive numbers are much worse than you would think they’d be considering the personnel. Brad Underwood built a switchable unit with great positional size, a stopper (Terrence Shannon Jr.) and one of the most switchable centers in the country in Coleman Hawkins. It’s felt like the Illini had the talent to eventually flip the switch, and it was flipped over the first weekend. Illinois kept both opponents in the 60s and got a lift from Dain Dainja, who blocked two shots in the first round. Now, the competition wasn’t what Illinois will see in Boston. Iowa State’s offense has been operating at its best the last two weeks, and a potential matchup against UConn could await in the Elite Eight. The Huskies, with all their off-ball screening and cutting, are one of the most difficult teams to guard in the country. It takes focus, physicality and communication. The Illini are going to score, but they’re going to have to guard to get to the Final Four. — CJ Moore
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After philosophical shift and assist from Jay Wright, Illinois is finally back in Sweet 16
Iowa State
Will good Milan Momcilovic show up?
It became a priority for T.J. Otzelberger late in the season to get Momcilovic his confidence back and get him back on track. The freshman is arguably Iowa State’s biggest matchup issue for opposing defenses. He usually plays small forward, and at 6-8, he usually has a height advantage and can back his man down and shoot Dirk Nowitzki one-foot fadeaways, an unstoppable shot when he’s on. He’s scored in double figures in four straight games and is averaging 14.5 points over that stretch. In the previous 10 games, he averaged 6.1 points and went scoreless the last time Iowa State lost at Kansas State. Illinois is the best offensive team in the country. The Cyclones need another great week from Momcilovic to have a shot to get to the Final Four. — Moore
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Marquette
Who stops Mr. Burns?
Apparently you cannot stop D.J. Burns Jr. — you can only hope to contain him. Who knew? But really it is that simple. Maybe the only thing more improbable than NC State’s March ride — born in the ACC tournament semifinals on a banked-in, circle-the-rim 3-pointer by a Stanford transfer — is the emergence of Burns, a Tennessee-to-Winthrop-to-NC State transfer. He’s more fleet of foot than he appears, and is an equally deft passer as he is scorer. But Oso Ighodaro is a versatile big man who, at 6-11, ought to have the strength to battle Burns. That matchup isn’t the only worry for the Golden Eagles — keeping NC State off the 3-point line is an issue, too — but Burns is the tail that wags the wolf (pack). — O’Neil
NC State
Is there any gas left in the tank?
One of these Sweet 16 teams is not like the others. All the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds survived into the second weekend, as did two No. 3s and two No. 4s. It’s super chalky. And then there’s the Wolfpack, a No. 11 seed, highest left in the field by five spots. On March 11, NC State was toast, having lost four straight to end the regular season with a 17-14 record. Hello, NIT. Then the Pack won five games in as many days to take the ACC tournament title and automatic bid. Then took out No. 6 seed Texas Tech and the Kentucky-killing Cinderella, 14-seed Oakland, surviving another hail of Jack Gohlke 3s to make the program’s first Sweet 16 in almost a decade. It is a truly remarkable run, seven straight postseason wins in just a dozen days, but you do wonder when the magic wears off — or the team wears out. State star DJ Burns Jr., a 300-pound ballerina, logged 42 minutes in the OT escape of Oakland. Once the adrenaline subsided, he could barely lift his feet enough to shuffle across the locker room afterward. Now here comes No. 2 seed Marquette, with its top-10 offensive pace, to test those weary legs. Survive that, and it could be Houston’s hounding defense, pure misery, to push them even closer to the brink. But … what if both Duke and NC State pull Sweet 16 upsets and meet in an All-ACC regional final? That would be delicious for a maligned league that is flipping the narrative about its demise during this tournament. And by the way, the Wolfpack beat the Blue Devils just two weeks ago, back when this whole incredible ride was just getting started. — Tucker
North Carolina
Are these slow starts survivable?
North Carolina won its first two NCAA Tournament games by 28 and 16 points … but those final scores don’t accurately reflect the Tar Heels’ slow starts. Wagner — a No. 16 seed with only seven active players, participating in its first tournament — kept the margin within five for the first 11 minutes of UNC’s opener. And Michigan State led the Tar Heels by as many as 12 midway through the first half, before a 23-3 UNC run flipped the game on its head. That Hubert Davis’ team was able to pull away in both instances is obviously the most important thing, but these slow starts have become a troublesome trend. UNC also trailed early in its final two ACC tournament games: by nine vs. Pittsburgh, and 10 vs. NC State. The Tar Heels led at the half of all those games … but will they be able to do the same against Alabama in the Sweet 16? The Crimson Tide are fourth nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom, and lead the country in points per game with 90.7. A slow start against an offense that explosive could spell trouble. And if Davis’ team does survive the Crimson Tide, it’ll face either Arizona — which is No. 9 in adjusted offensive efficiency, and third in scoring with 87.6 points per game — or Clemson, which scored 80 points and beat the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill in early February. (And in that game? UNC trailed 14-2, so … not exacting a great sign!) North Carolina earned a No. 1 seed for a reason, and its ability to respond mid-game makes it one of the toughest outs in the tournament. But falling behind like that, against increasingly good opponents, can only be a recipe for disaster. — Marks
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The timeout and the set play that powered North Carolina to the Sweet 16
Purdue
Will the guards deliver?
Aside from the general question — can Purdue? — the question goes right back to where we were a year ago: Can the Boilermaker guards carry them through? Graham Ike and Anton Watson, in theory, could make it more difficult for Edey to Edey, but then again in the Maui Invitational in November Edey had 15 of his 25 points in the second half to feed a Boilermaker rally. He’s also the first player with 50 points, 35 rebounds and 65 percent shooting through two games since a guy known as Lew Alcindor in 1968, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to his friends. So let’s remove Edey from the equation and assume he will tick off yet another fan base by living at the free-throw line or muscling his way to the hoop. How Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer (with an assist from Lance Jones) perform remains the Purdue X factor. Smith’s emergence as an offensive threat has been one of the most pivotal switches for the Boilers this year and against a team like Gonzaga, that isn’t terribly interested in defense, the guards hitting open shots to give Edey even more room to operate will be critical. — O’Neil
San Diego State
Was that the real life, or is it fantasy?
In San Diego State’s run to the national championship game in 2023, Darrion Trammell went on a couple heaters. Most notably, the guard who shot 32.8 percent from 3-point range hit 6-of-11 from long distance combined in a second-round win over Furman and a Sweet 16 upset of then-No. 1 overall seed Alabama. Which brings us to this week, and Trammell hitting four 3s in a second-round win over Yale, and what that may or may not mean moving ahead to No. 1 overall seed UConn on Thursday. “I love the competition,” Trammell said late Sunday, trying to explain why this keeps happening in big moments. “I love a chance to show who I am, where I come from. I think that’s what makes me play better in this time, with so much confidence.”
In fairness, Trammell is just the avatar; San Diego State’s offense rarely is as potent as it was against Yale, averaging 1.288 points per possession on the strength of 13 total made 3s. That was the merely third time all year the Aztecs hit 1.2 PPP in a game. It was a single-game season-high for made 3s. We know they’ll guard. We know they will make it difficult to score, for anyone — or at least more difficult than usual. But UConn isn’t Yale. UConn isn’t a moon; it’s a battle station. To exact vengeance for the national title game loss to the Huskies a year ago, the offense on display in Spokane has to reemerge in Boston. If it doesn’t, the result probably won’t be different this time around. — Hamilton
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Tennessee
Can the Vols be elite again on both ends of the floor?
The efficiency numbers are drifting closer to what the Vols have been in the past few years under Rick Barnes — overwhelming on defense, good-not-great on offense. Tennessee is up to KenPom’s No. 3 defense after two ferocious NCAA Tournament efforts on that end of the floor, but down to No. 30 on offense after spending much of the SEC season in the teens. That’s still the best UT has been since the Grant Williams-led team of 2018-19 — which lost to Purdue in the Sweet 16 — finished No. 3. But to beat Creighton and, potentially, Purdue, the Vols have to put it all together. And that really comes down to making open shots. Most of the 25 3-pointers they took against Texas were quality looks, yet 22 missed. It’s important for the role players to chip in, but this comes down to the Vols’ top two shooters returning to form. Dalton Knecht is 7-of-25 from 3-point range in the postseason to drop below 40 percent (39.1), and Zakai Zeigler was 5-of-20 combined in the win over Texas and SEC tournament loss to Mississippi State. Both are playing winning basketball in a variety of ways. Still, an uptick in long-range efficiency is a must. — Joe Rexrode
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(Top photo of Kylan Boswell, Milan Momcilovic and Oso Ighodaro: Gabriel Mayberry, Steven Branscome and Robert Deutsch / USA Today)