Detroit Lions need help on defense. But history says big-name free agents aren't the only way.

The NFL’s salary cap just went up by about $30 million, the largest single-year increase in league history. Which means Detroit Lions general manager Brad Holmes will go after Chris Jones, right?

Well, not necessarily, though if you’re looking for reasons the Kansas City Chiefs won the Super Bowl earlier this month — beyond Patrick Mahomes, of course — Jones is the best place to start.

Jones would likely cost $30-plus million a year, and probably want a four-year deal. He's 30, and to expect him to perform at an All-Pro level beyond the next couple of years is an unrealistic expectation.

But then the Lions shouldn’t be worried about three or four seasons from now, eh? They came within three points of the Super Bowl or, to put it another way, a stop. The kind of stops Jones almost single-handedly got when he pressured 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy on a couple of third downs in the Super Bowl.

So, sure, the Lions could use Jones — who couldn’t? Yet they don’t have to have Jones to get to the Super Bowl. They just have to get better defensively, and that can happen in a few ways.

The most obvious way is time and experience. The Lions’ defense is still relatively young. It’s reasonable to assume that Aidan Hutchinson will get better. (Jones, for example, made his All-Pro leap in his third season; Hutchinson will enter his third season this fall.)

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It’s also reasonable to assume Alim McNeil will get better, as he did during his second and third seasons. He isn’t at his ceiling.

Jack Campbell is nowhere near his. Nor is Brian Branch, nor Kerby Joseph, nor Ifeatu Melifonwu. Maybe Brodric Martin takes a step in the middle of the line. It's not ridiculous to think so, though, not after the way so many players have gotten better under this coaching staff.

So, let’s figure that at least half of these young players improve. That will make the defense better. Time and experience.

Heck, we saw it last season, when the Lions jumped six spots in total defense according to Pro Football Reference, from 29th to 23rd. That improvement helped them get to the NFC title game, along with a bruising run defense.

Now, to win that game, the defense will need to move at least another six spots, and maybe a few more. The goal, obviously, is to get into the top 10, but the Chiefs won the Super Bowl two seasons ago with the 16th-ranked defense, so it can be done.

Wait, don’t they have Mahomes? And didn’t Kansas City have the second-best regular season defense this past season? And arguably the best defense in the postseason?

Yes, yes and yes.

But the Chiefs Super Bowl run this winter marked the first time in seven years that the winner had a better defense than offense — Kansas City ranked ninth on that side of the ball.

Before this season, five of the previous six Super Bowl champs had a top-five offense. Not coincidentally, the Lions ranked in the top five this past season.

For further context, consider the 2021 Los Angeles Rams, who won the title with the No. 7-ranked offense and the 15th–ranked defense. (Theirs was the only offense to win without that top-five offense before Kansas City this year).

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The NFL remains in an era of offense, at least based on recent history. Obviously, rule changes and strategy evolutions can change how teams win. The league has gone through several defensive-heavy eras. And maybe the Chiefs’ most recent run is the beginning of the next switch.

Yet three of the final four teams this past season had top-six offenses. Two of them, San Francisco and the Lions, were ranked second and third. Baltimore was No. 6.

Yes, the Ravens and 49ers also had top-shelf defenses, but everyone saw what the Lions did to San Francisco’s defense, at least in the first half. And if not for a fumble and a few other ill-timed mistakes of execution, maybe they get another second-half touchdown, and that touchdown negates a 49ers drive.

We’ll never know.

We do know that teams don’t win it all with a defense ranked in the 20s, not even in this pass-happy epoch. We also know, based on what we’ve seen from Dan Campbell’s ability to develop players, along with the help of a top-notch coaching staff, that it’s a safe bet several young defensive players will improve.

Enough to push the defense into Super Bowl territory?

Perhaps not, though it’s not ridiculous to think more internal growth could bump the unit into the teens, where several recent Super Bowl winners have resided.

Holmes has said he’d like to keep building through the draft, re-sign their own players, and use free agency to add depth, though not just backup depth, but quality starting depth. He worries that an expensive signing — an edge rusher, say, or a cornerback — might cost the team some depth and that when November and December and January roll around, the time of the year for injuries, the lack of depth could hurt.

He also points out that a “splashy” free-agent signing is no guarantee of anything, that the player could get hurt, take a step down in production, as so many free agents over the years have done. His point is a good one and based on reality: Just because a player has a track record in another market doesn’t mean that track record will translate to this one.

It’s all a gamble, in other words. Kansas City, for what it’s worth, found Jones in the second round, and L’Jarius Sneed in the fourth. The top-end cornerback is also a free agent, and maybe Holmes makes a move toward him.

He did say that the increase in salary cap gives him more to consider, and more room to operate beyond the internal plan. Then again, Campbell told reporters Tuesday in Indianapolis that he and Holmes shared the belief that team building starts with the draft and retaining the best players on the roster.

It’s possible that the Lions go after a “big-name” free agent to help the defense. It’s also possible they don’t, and that they try to find a couple starters or three and hope the young fellas keep getting better. Either way, it’s hard to blame them.

They’ve rebuilt this franchise in three seasons and got to within a field goal of the Super Bowl. Getting those final three points will be the hardest phase yet.

Whatever happens this offseason, though, history tells us there is more than one way to get those points.

Contact Shawn Windsor: 313-222-6487 or swindsor@freepress.com. Follow him @shawnwindsor.

This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Brad Holmes Dan Campbell NFL Combine Free agency Detroit Lions