Guardians 2024 MLB season preview: The top 5 things that need to go right to make playoffs
It's quiet around here — too quiet.
And if you're a fan of an American League Central team hoping they'd make some aggressive moves to go grab hold of the division in 2024, it's way, way, way too quiet (aside from the complaining about the bad Nike uniforms, of course).
The AL Central has basically decided, 'Hey, first one to 85 wins can go be the No. 4 seed in the postseason.'
Nobody really did anything to many any serious noise. The Guardians have some work to do as a fringe postseason contender in 2024, but thanks to a division that doesn't seem worried about winning 100 games, they're still in the fight, though they have an uphill battle.
And outside of their hopes for their internal options taking collective steps forward, they didn't go out and add much help, either (with all due respect to Austin Hedges, who could be a tremendous help to the clubhouse and to Bo Naylor, but he doesn't pack much punch for a lineup needing to take its little-kids gloves off).
The Minnesota Twins won the division and then immediately announced they'd be cutting payroll, and did so by around $30 million this winter. That wasn't the most inspiring announcement for fans in the Twin Cities.
The Detroit Tigers and Kansas City Royals might both be on their way up from the rebuilding bottom, and each made some tactful free-agent additions to bolster young cores, but like the Guardians, they're more so relying on their own internal options and hoping for a sooner-rather-than-later boost.
The Chicago White Sox are just a mess. They were the princes of disorder in 2023 (and 2022, really). They have a bottom-third-ranked farm system and not much help at the major league level. It's not even like they're stuck in first gear, it's more like they're somehow stuck in reverse. At least they now have a clear direction, though.
Perhaps there was a hope that Jose Ramirez decking Tim Anderson might have knocked some sense into the White Sox, but, that doesn't appear to be the case. They're still stumbling around the ring without much of a future to speak of.
Then there's the Guardians. They have a win total over/under, according to most sports books, of around 81 wins. They have a reasonable chance of hanging around as a .500 team, though depth behind certain injuries would doom them (looking at you, Jose Ramirez, Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie).
But unless the Twins catch fire, and Byron Buxton and Co. manage to evade the injury bug, hanging around as a .500 team might mean Cleveland (or Detroit, or K.C.) plays meaningful baseball well into September. And with a little luck, the youngest roster in baseball with one of the youngest managers in recent memory does have a shot at pulling a March madness-like upset.
Now, this isn't to say the Guardians are a great pick to win the AL Central in 2024. This roster as constructed has maybe an equal chance of falling into a pseudo rebuilding year (that might lead to a Bieber trade in July) as it does to make the postseason, if injury trends don't go their way.
It's just that it's kind of amazing how much the door was left open for a young team with a new manager to have the runway to take off if some things can come together in a few spots.
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Here is what needs to go right for the Guardians to win the division in 2024 under new manager Stephen Vogt.
A Jose Ramirez injury cannot happen if the Guardians hope to make the playoffs in 2024
Jose Ramirez cannot, under any circumstances, miss significant time.
There is a valid argument that Ramirez is perhaps the single most valuable player to his own team in the majors (and it's likely been that way for at least the last 2-3 seasons) when taking into account those around him in the lineup and behind him on the depth chart. He's one of baseball's best, and he might be the most irreplaceable.
Take Ramirez out of this lineup and it suddenly looks like a good option for Columbus, but not Cleveland. He has four top-four MVP finishes under his belt (plus a sixth-place and 10th-place finish on top of that), including one year in which he played half the season with a thumb injury that needed surgery.
A recent 2024 MLB player survey had him in a tie for the most underrated in baseball.
Ramirez has played in at least 93 percent of Cleveland's games in every season except for one since 2016. If they hope to unseat the Twins in 2024, that trend needs to continue.
Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie injuries would derail a Guardians playoff bid in 2024
Notice a trend, here?
The Guardians have missed the playoffs three times since the 2016 season (2019, 2021, 2023). There was one common thread to all three: the starting rotation ran into significant injuries and couldn't recover enough to avoid missing the postseason.
Now, last season was more so due to an offense that was statistically the league's worst for several weeks. But the depth issues with the pitching staff only compounded that problem.
Bieber (who is working on his curveball) has missed extended time in two of the last three years. McKenzie only tossed 16 innings last year and is still a pretty significant injury risk considering it was his UCL. If he avoids any further damage moving forward, it'll be a huge win for the Guardians in and of itself.
The Guardians have arguably been the game's best organization over the last several years when it comes to developing pitchers. Lucas Giolito called it the "Cleveland Pitching Factory." But Cleveland needs their top-line starters to stay on the mound long enough to support a lineup that needs all the help it can get.
That also goes for three sophomore pitchers (Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen) all entering their first full seasons in the majors. And Williams is already sidelined to start the year, which opened the door for Carlos Carrasco (who had an emotional discussion when he made the team out of camp) to make the roster.
Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis injuries could derail Twins bid to repeat in 2024
I promise I'll stop talking about injuries in a second, but the Guardians and Twins have some similarities in that there is talent, but injury history and depth are serious concerns.
Byron Buxton is a legit MVP candidate-talent if he could ever play more than 100 games, something he hasn't done since 2017. Royce Lewis is a former league-wide top prospect and All-Star caliber shortstop if he can ever play more than 100 games in a season.
The Twins rotation isn't quite as top-tier after the loss of Sonny Gray, meaning Pablo Lopez is as important as he's ever been to that group.
The Guardians have long been a team with some potential, but little depth. There was a win-loss cliff they've been perched a little too close to, and that became evident in 2023. The Twins, while being the clear favorites in the Central for a reason, are in a somewhat similar position if their injury history again catches up with them in 2024.
Unless a lot goes right for the Guardians, the Twins dealing with some hiccups in their lineup might be a needed ingredient.
Kyle Manzardo's debut (and possibly Chase DeLauter's) could be a key aspect for Guardians lineup
The Guardians lineup needs a boost. They were 22nd in wRC+, 27th in runs scored and dead last by a mile in home runs last season.
Myles Straw opening the year in Triple-A instead of being in the everyday lineup in center field should help. Bo Naylor taking over primary catching duties should help there, too.
But Cleveland will need an assist from Columbus.
The first is that the Guardians need Kyle Manzardo to make his debut and hit the ground running. Manzardo was the return for Aaron Civale at last year's trade deadline, as the Guardians needed to jump at the chance to add a top-100 hitting prospect. Once he does make the jump to the majors, he should split first base and the designated hitter spot with Josh Naylor.
Hitting coach Chris Vailaika said that Manzardo "looked like Wade Boggs" in the hitting cage early this spring.
Chase DeLauter had one of the most eye-popping springs across the league, hitting .520 with a 1.640 OPS and four highlight-reel home runs. He wasn't actually in big league camp, only logging at-bats during Cactus League games, but he made plenty of noise in Goodyear, Ariz.
DeLauter could very well make his major league debut and provide a boost to an outfield group that still has a lot of question marks at some point this summer.
Both young hitters might hold the keys to the Guardians lineup making the kind of jump they need to catch the Twins.
Emmanuel Clase, Scott Barlow need to lead Guardians bullpen to a rebound in 2024
The Guardians bullpen didn't just have an off year statistically, they always seemed to blow up at the worst possible times. One would think they'd be headed for some positive regression there — or at least they hope.
Last season, the Guardians bullpen finished ninth in ERA but 17th in fWAR. They were 4th in fWAR in 2022 (and fifth in ERA).
It was far from a disastrous unit, but it was also far from the top-5 option it was in 2022.
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It starts with Emmanuel Clase, who was good in 2023 (3.22 ERA, 44 saves, 64 strikeouts) but absolutely world-destroying elite in 2022 (1.36 ERA, 42 saves, 77 strikeouts). They need him to be as close to the 2022 version that was arguably the best reliever in baseball for a year.
Scott Barlow, in a way the Guardians' key offseason addition, figures to be the leading high-leverage setup man to bridge the gap to Clase.
After those two, there are a lot of uncertainties with who takes what roles, and who is even available. Trevor Stephan, James Karinchak and Sam Hentges are all going to start the season on the injured list. The Guardians bullpen has already been hit hard with injuries, and it'll create one of the first key tests for Vogt as a manager.
The Twins' inactivity left the door open. The Guardians will need their bullpen to slam it shut.
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Ryan Lewis can be reached at rlewis1@gannett.com. Read more about the Guardians at www.beaconjournal.com/sports/cleveland-guardians. Follow him on Threads at @ByRyanLewis.
This article originally appeared on Akron Beacon Journal: Cleveland Guardians 2024 season preview: Will they make the playoffs?
