Longtime NFL draft analyst Matt Miller of ESPN is the latest to come out with a full seven-round mock draft for the 2024 NFL draft. It’s a lengthy effort to project all 257 selections, and Miller makes it even more complex by mixing in a couple of trades near the top.
As with all mock drafts, it’s interesting to see what perspectives and options are out there for the teams and where players might land. There are some unexpected twists and turns, with some team/player matches that should provoke some thought exercises with fan bases about what could potentially happen.
Without giving too much away, here are some of what stood out in Miller’s epic undertaking.
Trades up for QBs
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The first two picks from Miller are pretty much the established status quo, with the Bears tabbing USC QB Caleb Williams at No. 1 and LSU’s Jayden Daniels to Washington at No. 2. Projecting trades for the next two spots is where the swerve begins.
The Patriots opt to trade out of No. 3, taking a presumed haul from the Vikings to drop back. Minnesota rockets up to take North Carolina QB Drake Maye. Sensing scarcity, Miller then projects the Broncos to move up to No. 4 and snatch Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy.
The parlor game of figuring out the third and fourth quarterbacks is in full effect. The projections here definitely make some sense.
10 offensive linemen in the first round
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It’s a great year to need offensive line help in the draft, and that is a fundamental tenet of Miller’s mock. He projects 10 of them, including eight who could conceivably play tackle, in the first 31 picks.
If you extend out to pick No. 44, three more offensive tackles come off the board. That’s almost a third of the picks through the middle of the second round devoted to offensive linemen.
No RBs in the top 50
Texas running back Jonathon Brooks (24)
With the crushing volume of offensive linemen early, other positions have to fall. In this set of picks, it’s the running backs who bear the brunt.
There aren’t any running backs selected in the first 50 picks. Only three are projected in the top 100 picks, which comprises the first three rounds.
Players that are surprisingly high
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There are a few players who appear much higher in this projection than they do in other contemporary mock drafts. That’s not to say they’re wrong or reaches, but rather deviations from the standard expectations for the player in the draft.
Most notable is Bo Nix. The Oregon QB is projected at No. 13 overall to the Las Vegas Raiders. Miller isn’t alone in thinking NIx goes in the first round or even to the Raiders at 13, but it will still stun many folks who still project Nix as a later Day 2 candidate.
The next name on the list is one that I know will shock folks, based on reactions I got from projecting him as a first-rounder earlier in the draft cycle: Houston OT Patrick Paul. Miller slots him in the top 40, and right around the range where I expect the talented but raw Cougar to come off the board. Paul is missing entirely from some recent three-round projections around the draft world.
Others who appear higher than in most projections:
Washington OT Roger Rosengarten
LSU DT Maason Smith
Texas LB Jaylan Ford, included here by Miller’s own admission.
TCU TE Jared Wiley
Alabama K Will Reichard, though only noted here because drafting kickers is a taboo amongst many draft aficionados. I do buy the relative range and landing spot Miller projects for the talented kicker.
Players projected lower than expected
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For every player projected above the standard slotting area, one winds up coming off the board later than expected—in some cases, much later.
Two of those come to mind here:
Utah S Cole Bishop. He’s a player I consistently see projected in the 50-70 range in the middle of Day 2. Bishop sits outside the first 100 picks here.
Miami DT Leonard Taylor was a fixture in the top 50 in mock drafts as the college season ended. Here, he’s fallen to the Eagles in the fifth round. That could very well be his reality, though I don’t think most fans have mentally processed that Taylor isn’t so highly regarded by the NFL.
Florida State WR Johnny Wilson is a staple in Day 2 projections in most mocks, but here the supersized wideout falls out of the top 200 picks.
Favorite haul for a team
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Already in the midst of an impressive offseason, the picks slotted here for the Houston Texans look outstanding. Despite not having a first-round pick, the Texans land three immediately useful players who are good schematic fits on Day 2:
DT Braden Fiske
S Tyler Nubin
C Beaux Limmer
These projections add one of my favorite values in the draft, Virginia WR Malik Washington, in the fourth round. Undervalued Washington State CB Chau Smith-Wade and intriguing Texas A&M wideout Ainias Smith each add playmaking potential later in the draft at positions where the Texans can take those shots. Not everyone will value the players like I do, but this is a home run draft outcome for Houston in my view.
