We’re hours away from the start of free agency. Sure, no one can sign any contracts or consummate deals until Wednesday, but everyone knows that negotiations have been simmering for weeks. Events are going to begin in earnest on Monday when teams and players’ agents can comfortably speak in the open.
So in the spirit of those imminent moves, we’ve updated our projections for the first round of the 2024 NFL draft. Here’s how we see all 32 teams, including the New Orleans Saints, making their draft-day decisions at the end of April — before all the big changes in free agency spike our script.
Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams, QB, USC
No changes are expected at the top, but for one thing: Will the Bears be able to trade Justin Fields? What was once anticipated to be a hot market for the former first-round quarterback cooled at the combine, and Mac Jones being traded for a sixth-rounder doesn’t suggest anything good about Fields’ appeal to other teams.
Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
UNC quarterback Drake Maye has pulled ahead of Jayden Daniels in the QB2 race, to hear some analysts tell it, but it’s lying season and Daniels is too exciting to pass up. Daniels is clearly a talented passer who can make plays with his legs when he needs to. The challenge for Washington is giving him a strong enough supporting cast of receivers to where he doesn’t have to put his body in harm’s way by scrambling so often.
Las Vegas Raiders, via New England Patriots: Drake Maye, QB North Carolina
The Raiders need a quarterback for now and the future, and Maye slipping down to the third spot is a great opportunity for them to sell big and go get him. Maye’s combination of passing acumen and mobility, plus his innate leadership skills, make him worth selling the farm for. What the Patriots’ plans under center are after trading Mac Jones to the Jacksonville Jaguars remain unclear.
Arizona Cardinals: Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
There aren’t many offenses in more dire need of an alpha-dog wideout than the Cardinals, and that’s exactly what Harrison offers. He has all of the skills and talent needed to succeed from his first day on the practice field. Kyler Murray won’t hesitate to throw his way after airing it out with great receivers like Larry Fitzgerald and DeAndre Hopkins early in his career.
Denver Broncos, via Los Angeles Chargers: J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
A rare trade between division rivals gets Sean Payton his quarterback; he hasn’t been stockpiling draft picks for nothing. McCarthy carries a lot of projection into the NFL, but the things he does best line up well with what Payton asks of his quarterback: navigate a dirty pocket, step up under pressure, and throw with accuracy and timing, across the middle of the field.
New York Giants: Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
Rome Odunze was the talk of the combine but the Giants go with Nabers this time; he doesn’t have much left to prove after a dynamic senior season at LSU. New York’s offense is in rough shape and Nabers can really liven things up once Daniel Jones heals up and returns to start.
Tennessee Titans: Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
Don’t overthink this. Alt can immediately help out the Titans at one of the sport’s most important positions, which also happens to be one of their worst vulnerabilities. They’ll give Will Levis all the help they can to prove he’s the right quarterback for leading them into a new era after making some questionable personnel decisions this offseason.
Atlanta Falcons: Dallas Turner, DE, Alabama
Turner locked in a top-10 selection with his stellar combine workout, and the Falcons offense is going to get humming with Kirk Cousins under center, so they can afford a luxury pick here after spending big on their defense in free agency a year ago. Turner is a scheme-versatile pass rusher who checks every box coming out of college.
Chicago Bears: Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
The Bears should be looking to surround Caleb Williams with more weapons, and they have two appealing options here in Nabers and Georgia tight end Brock Bowers. and they have two appealing options here in Nabers and Georgia tight end Brock Bowers. But Cole Kmet is already well-established as a pass-catching tight end, so they’ll go with Odunze to take point. He and D.J. Moore are going to be a great duo.
New York Jets: Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State
Left or right tackle, the Jets need to do a better job protecting their quarterbacks and winning the edge. Fuaga can handle that assignment from his first day in the facility. He’s a pro-ready pass protector with great movement skills out in space. Maybe he’ll be asked to move to the left side, but the Jets should be willing to spend in free agency to resolve that problem. Longtime Dallas Cowboys left tackle Tyron Smith would make sense for them given Aaron Rodgers’ rapidly-closing window.
Minnesota Vikings: Byron Murphy II, DL, Texas
The Vikings could go looking for an expensive pickup in free agency to strengthen their defensive line, but Murphy is a very impressive prospect and they’d be lucky to have him. Whether or not they lose Danielle Hunter to a rival team, Murphy can anchor the middle of the line while making stops on both running and passing downs.
Los Angeles Chargers (trade): Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
With plenty of offensive linemen graded highly in the second and third rounds (where they’re now flush with picks after trading down), the Chargers land a big upgrade at tight end with one of the most exciting playmakers in this draft class. Their passing attack is going to lose some established weapons to salary cap cuts so it’s important to stock up on weapons for Justin Herbert.
New England Patriots, via Denver Broncos: Olu Fashanu, OT, Penn State
Jerod Mayo is a smart coach, and he knows the game is won in the trenches. Trading down, getting more picks, adding a rare talent at left tackle and remaining patient to find the right quarterback isn’t a bad strategy at all. Fashanu is rock-solid in pass protection and should make life easier for whoever the Patriots put under center.
New Orleans Saints: Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU
There are just three wideouts under contract for the Saints, out of the 11 who played for them last year on the active roster or practice squad. Thomas gives them a great opportunity to get bigger and faster (and younger), opening more avenues for offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak to set up Derek Carr for success.
Green Bay Packers, via Indianapolis Colts: Cooper DeJean, DB, Iowa
Green Bay’s secondary is a mess, and while they could sign a couple of free agent safeties it makes sense to draft a blue-chip defensive back, too. And DeJean can play anywhere in their secondary. They should try him outside and see if he can hang against NFL receivers before moving him inside to safety, but his best position might be the nickel.
Seattle Seahawks: Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon
The Seahawks haven’t hit as well on some recent draft picks along the offensive line as they’d like, but Powers-Johnson can get them back on track by anchoring the middle. He’s an experienced athlete who will be a popular pick in the Pacific Northwest.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo
The Jaguars could use a cornerback, and they got the best one in the draft. Mitchell dominated his level of competition at Toledo and shut down the best receivers the Senior Bowl could throw at him — and then he tore up the combine. He’s the real deal.
Cincinnati Bengals: Johnny Newton, DL, Illinois
It’s possible the Bengals could be big spenders in free agency while reloading their defensive line, but Newton is a good value here. He’s disruptive, stops the run more consistently (and more actively) than you’d expect of a slighter lineman, and he should cause havoc next to Trey Hendrickson on passing downs.
Los Angeles Rams: Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson
The Rams got by with a defense full of mid-round rookies a year ago, so Wiggins would be a welcome talent injection. He plays with a high motor and makes a ton of plays with sharp situational awareness. He’s going to be a problem for teams testing him over the top.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Amarius Mims, OT, Georgia
The Steelers can’t seem to get their offensive line right, but they haven’t had many rookies like Mims walk through the door. He’s a unique athlete and could slide over to left tackle while his old Georgia teammate Broderick Jones holds it down on the right side. Wherever he lines up, Mims is goingo to need plenty of reps after being limited to so few starts in college.
Detroit Lions, via Miami Dolphins: Jared Verse, DE, Florida State
Another trade! The Lions couldn’t get a stop when they needed it most in the playoffs, so they make a move to get a productive pass rusher in freefall. Verse will fit right in on Aaron Glenn’s aggressive defense, where he can rush the passer and occasionally use his lateral agility to catch teams by surprise while dropping into coverage.
Philadelphia Eagles: Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
The Eagles stay put and end up with maybe the top corner in the draft, depending on who you ask. Arnold didn’t time as well as his peers but his larger body of work speaks for itself, and he has all the athletic ability he needs to compete in the NFL. He’s a great value at this spot, which almost stamps him as another smart Howie Roseman draft pick.
Houston Texans: Laiatu Latu, DE, UCLA
DeMeco Ryans is building something special in Houston, and Latu can add a lot to his already-overachieving defense by bringing a ton of speed off the edge. Teams weren’t concerned by his medical history at the combine but the number of viable pass rushers in this class may push him down the board.
Dallas Cowboys: Payton Wilson, LB, N.C. State
The future is murky in the middle of the Cowboys defense, so it makes sense to target the draft’s best linebacker. Wilson brings a ton of experience, production, athleticism, and professional attitude to Dallas. It won’t take long before he’s the next Cowboys fan-favorite linebacker patrolling the middle of the field.
Indianapolis Colts, via Green Bay Packers: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas
The Colts traded down, added more picks, and got Anthony Richardson a speedy new receiver to work with. What’s not to love? Mitchell already had plenty of fans for his exciting college game tape, but he validated that interest by earning top marks at the combine.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Troy Fautanu, OT Washington
Tristan Wirfs found some success while moving from right tackle to the left side, but Fautanu still makes sense for Tampa Bay. They could try moving him inside to guard where they’ve experienced a lot of turmoil and turnover, or keep him at his college position and let Wirfs move back to the right flank. Either way this is a tremendous value pick, and it’ll make their newly-extended quarterback Baker Mayfield very happy.
Arizona Cardinals: Tyler Guyton, OT, Oklahoma
Where will Guyton play in the NFL? Will he stay on the right side or move to the more-lucrative left tackle spot? That’s a question the Cardinals can answer after getting him in the building. They already got Kyler Murray a new No. 1 receiver, now they’ve added a highly athletic blocker to keep him clean. The only thing Guyton needs is more experience.
Buffalo Bills: Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
The Bills already released Deonte Harty as a cap cut and they might lose Gabe Davis in free agency, so they’ll be looking for more speed in the receiving corps. And you can’t get faster than Worthy, who set a new combine record in the 40-yard dash. That Worthy was a real playmaker at Texas only makes him more appealing for teams interested in adding another gear to their offense.
Miami Dolphins, via Detroit Lions: JC Latham, OT, Alabama
Latham is a steal this late in Round 1, arguably the best value pick of the day. Whether he’s staying at right tackle or kicking inside to guard, he can help the Dolphins get meaner and more physical up front, which is a big weakness for them as a team. They lack that grit to push through adversity in the playoffs against a stout defense in front of a hostile crowd with cold weather getting to them.
Baltimore Ravens: Keon Coleman, WR, Florida State
Could the Ravens be the team to sign Michael Thomas? Maybe, maybe not. Either way, they should continue drafting young playmaking receivers until they have enough of them to give Lamar Jackson confidence in the playoffs. He can’t continue having just one reliable wideout in the postseason (this year: Zay Flowers).
San Francisco 49ers: Graham Barton, OT, Duke
Barton is a favorite of anonymous scouts, and to their credit he is an interesting prospect with experience at all five spots along the offensive line. And the 49ers need to improve at most of those positions, so he makes a ton of sense. He’s a good athlete who can fit into Kyle Shanahan’s fast-moving offense either at guard, tackle, or center and be an asset.
Kansas City Chiefs: Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia
McConkey is a remarkably gifted athlete, having matched the numbers Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson put up when they worked out on the same field at Lucas Oil Stadium in years past. The combine star didn’t put up tremendous numbers in college but it’s easy to see him developing a quick chemistry with Patrick Mahomes.