What happened in the NCAA Men's Tournament second round

Arizona leads Dayton 11-8 after about five minutes, and both teams have started strong from the field. The Wildcats have made five of their first eight shots, while the Flyers are 3-of-5. Caleb Love has a quick five points for Arizona.

The second round is underway. Savor it.

Our staff picks for the first game of the day, No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 7 Dayton:

• John Hollinger: Arizona
• Brendan Marks: Arizona
• Austin Mock: Arizona
• Joe Rexrode: Arizona

SALT LAKE CITY — The natural assumption would be Arizona having a quasi-home court advantage in Utah for today's Mountain Time morning tilt with Dayton, but it's worth remembering that Dayton travels as well as any program in the country. The Flyers are here in force. Many faithful made it out for Thursday's first-round game, but following the win over Nevada, seats on available flights from Cincinnati to SLC have been at a premium and more Flyers have made their way here, along with the legendary Dayton band.

Team in 16 words: The most balanced team in Tommy Lloyd’s tenure. Can score, has a go-to guy, is improved defensively.

Record: 26-8 (15-5 Pac-12)

Coach: Tommy Lloyd (3-2 in NCAA Tournament)

Player to watch: Caleb Love (Pac-12 Player of the Year)

Strengths: The Wildcats have been a terrific offensive team in all three seasons under Tommy Lloyd. Caleb Love can be erratic, but he transferred in from North Carolina and filled a major need of a guard who can go get a bucket. Arizona has no shortage of experience, and added another transfer in Keshad Johnson who has Final Four experience from a year ago at San Diego State.

Weaknesses: When point guard Kylan Boswell doesn’t play well, it usually results in a loss for the ‘Cats. In their eight losses, Boswell shot 21 percent from the field and averaged 4.8 points per game. And Arizona doesn’t have another true point guard when Boswell is struggling. There’s also the concern of when Love struggles, he can really struggle.

Outlook: Lloyd has a team capable of getting to the Final Four, but it depends on the guard tandem of Love and Boswell. If they play well, Arizona can beat anyone in the country because Pelle Larsson is a terrific role player, Johnson is a terrific defender and Oumar Ballo is one of the better big men in the country. But it’s truly up to the consistency of Love and Boswell.

—Jeff Goodman, Field of 68

SALT LAKE CITY — Less than two weeks ago, Dayton defeated Virginia Commonweath by overcoming a 17-point deficit. The Flyers never panicked. They defended. They got stops. They stayed composed when things seemed bleak. They made shots when it mattered.

In November, Dayton kicked off the Charleston Classic by defeating LSU. The Flyers trailed by 15 points with nine minutes left. But they defended maniacally down the stretch, started making shots offensively and came back to get one of those nonconference wins the NCAA Tournament selection committee always demands.

The seventh-seeded Flyers seemingly shrugged their collective shoulders after Thursday’s 63-60 first-round win over 10th-seeded Nevada to advance to the round of 32 in the NCAA Tournament. The celebration at the final buzzer was wild. The jubilation of surviving and advancing in the Big Dance was palpable. But, while they stunned almost everyone with the ferocity and audacity of a huge rally, they didn’t surprise themselves.

“In those moments, that’s when we get the closest,” Dayton guard Koby Brea said. “I think we’ve been in those situations a couple of times this year, so when we do get in those situations we are comfortable. When we look at our captain, our coach, we see that he’s not worried. We see that he believes in us and that he believes in everyone from the last player on the bench. In those moments, we believe in each other and we trust each other.”

Continue reading.

SALT LAKE CITY — It flew well under the radar late Thursday night that the four teams playing out this pod were done no favors by the NCAA and broadcast partner CBS. Saturday's first second-round game here between Dayton and Arizona will start at 10:45 a.m. local time, a bizarrely early tip time. The second game, a potential haymaker between Kansas and Gonzaga, is slated for 1:15 p.m., which is a little more reasonable, except if you're Kansas. The Jayhawks played late into the evening on Thursday, running a 40-minute track meet against Samford in an exhausting affair that went down to the wire. They left the floor around 11 p.m. MT, only to be told they would be tipping off again in about 38 hours.

Kansas coach Bill Self was caught a bit off-guard by the timing.

"That seems like it's pretty quick turnaround," Self said. "But it is what it is. Certainly there will not be any reason why we won't come refreshed and rested and ready to go."

It appears CBS scheduled everything around landing Saturday's matchup between Michigan State and North Carolina in its primary TV window of 5:30 p.m. ET. That resulted in Texas-Tennessee, the other game in Charlotte, landing in the 8 p.m. ET window. With that, the CBS games out of Salt Lake City were slotted for the earlier Eastern Time windows, setting them up for brunch basketball in Utah.

As it goes, it's the teams who win and lose, but the TV partners who call the plays.

PITTSBURGH — Greg Kampe’s eyebrows furrowed as the strange question was being posed to him Friday afternoon: Had Oakland’s 68-year-old coach considered that, in guiding the 14th-seeded Golden Grizzlies to a massive upset over No. 3 seed Kentucky in the first round of the NCAA Tournament the night before, he’d effectively just added a line to his future obituary?

“Well, that is morbid,” he said with a laugh, “but it’s true. ‘He beat Kentucky.’ Wow, I didn’t think about that, but you’re right. You’re 100 percent right. Wow. And that might be the first thing they say when I’m gone. ‘Here lies Greg Kampe, who beat Kentucky.’ Huh. I wouldn’t mind that at all.”

The day before Oakland’s big victory, Kampe made an impassioned plea for mid-major programs to never be squeezed out of the NCAA Tournament, as some fear might soon happen. Because Cinderella is really the star of this show — and because if his team could somehow knock off Kentucky, he said, it would change their lives forever. He was right.

“Jack Gohlke is a folk hero now,” Kampe said after the 24-year-old Division II transfer buried the Wildcats with a barrage of 10 made 3-pointers. By late afternoon the next day, Kampe said, “I have not been to sleep yet. I’ve not stopped talking. I talk a lot, but it’s getting ridiculous. Every 15 minutes, I’ve got a Zoom or something. This is unbelievable for our university, the amount of publicity. The university website crashed last night.”

Perhaps because an untold number of people in Louisville, home of Kentucky’s rival, bought $8,000 worth of T-shirts overnight.

“Think about that,” Kampe said. “Next year at the Kentucky game, all these Louisville fans will be wearing Oakland shirts.”

Less than 24 hours after his team’s historic victory, Gohlke had already appeared on “SportsCenter” with Scott Van Pelt and done the “Pat McAfee Show” and “Rich Eisen Show.” Kampe had done “Good Morning America.” Senior forward Trey Townsend, who had 17 and 12 against Kentucky, was scheduled for an interview with TMZ Sports. And name, image and likeness opportunities began popping up as Gohlke’s Instagram following ballooned from less than 1,000 to almost 20,000 overnight.

Continue reading.

A little this day in history: Enjoy these highlights of Stephen Curry scoring 30 points to send Davidson to the Sweet 16 over Georgetown.

Iowa State may not have earned the No. 1 seed it was hoping for in the NCAA Tournament, but it is certainly playing like one over the past few weeks. It enters its second-round game against Washington State on Saturday as a big favorite.

The Cyclones bring one of the nation’s top defenses into the matchup, allowing just 61.4 points per game on the season. That is the fourth-lowest total in the nation. They have held opponents to under 50 points seven times this season, including an emphatic Big 12 championship game win over Houston (one of the No. 1 seeds in this tournament), where it held the Cougars to just 41 points. The Cyclones easily dispatched No. 15 seed South Dakota State, 82-65, in their first NCAA Tournament game.

Along with a suffocating and smothering defense, the Cyclones are also led by guard Keshon Gilbert who averages 13.9 points per game. He had 15 points in only 25 minutes against South Dakota State.

The Washington State Cougars are led by Isaac Jones with 15.5 points per game and Myles Rice at 14.9 points per game. Jones had 20 points in the Cougars’ come-from-behind win against Drake in their opening-round game. While the Cougars are not quite as dominant as Iowa State defensively, they still limited opponents to just 66.7 points per game this season, 44th in the nation.

It could be a defensive slugfest of a game.

One thing that Washington State has to be aware of is how good Iowa State is at creating turnovers, a potentially game-changing area where the Cougars have been vulnerable at times this season. Iowa State might be able to feast on that weakness if Washington State gets sloppy with the ball. The Cyclones’ turnover margin of 6.8 is the second-best in the country (behind only Houston) this season, while the Cougars’ margin of -0.3 was 221st. Iowa State is lethal in that area and can make life miserable for a team that doesn’t protect the ball.

Spread: Iowa State -6.5

Total: 128.5

Given how much parity there was in college basketball this season, the first round of the NCAA Tournament figured to provide its share of close games and upsets. And while there were some notable upsets for the little guys (hello Oakland, Yale, James Madison, Grand Canyon and Duquesne), all the No. 1 and No. 2 seeds made it through unscathed, as did 14 of the overall top 16 teams.

As the second round commences, here are the top 16 national title contenders in our latest NCAA Tournament Power Rankings. We will update this ranking after every round and until the Final Four begins. Already, there has been movement with a couple of new teams breaking into the mix. And with the potential for more upsets, this list will continue to change.

The No. 1 seeds of UConn, Houston, Purdue and North Carolina all played like it in dominant wins to show why they’re among the favorites. Those four teams beat their opponents by a combined 135 points, and none won by fewer than 28 points. Will there be more chalk? Here’s a look at where things stand entering the second round on Saturday.

Top 10

1. UConn
2. Houston
3. Purdue
4. North Carolina
5. Tennessee
6. Arizona
7. Marquette
8. Illinois
9. Iowa State
10. Baylor

Continue reading.

The analysis for this game is simple. Throw out most of our model for a minute. Just focus on overall team strength. There is not an eight-seed gap between these teams. Not even close.

Slingshot’s power ratings have UNC eighth in the country. Michigan State is 17th, separated by fewer than four points per 100 possessions. KenPom has the margin even closer: UNC is 9th, and Michigan State is 16th. That’s why UNC is favored by only four points.

So why does our model give the Spartans only a 24 percent chance of winning? The rest of the factors that we typically see in upsets don’t go their way. North Carolina does many of the things our model wants to see from safe overdogs. The Tar Heels are strong rebounders at both ends, play fast, don’t rely too heavily on three-point shooting and rarely turn the ball over.

Michigan State, meanwhile, isn’t especially risk-seeking. It plays slow, which our model likes, and forces turnovers at an above-average rate. But the Spartans are pedestrian rebounders and don’t shoot a ton of threes.

But there’s one catch.

Michigan State has Chameleon potential. Yes, they don’t shoot a lot of threes. But they make 36 percent of them. We’ve written a ton in the past week about how some teams have the ability to increase their variance in certain situations. In Michigan State’s first-round win over Mississippi State, the Spartans took 23 of their 54 shots from three-point range and made 10 of them (44 percent). So, if the Spartans are willing and able to increase their deep-shooting frequency against UNC, our model may be underrating their chances at an upset.

Upset chance: 24.1 percent

CHARLOTTE, N.C. — There is reality, and then perception.

Reality is a final score: No. 1 North Carolina 90, No. 16 Wagner 62. The top-seeded team in the West Region, a blue blood with the most wins in NCAA Tournament history, whooping an undersized squad making its first appearance in the Big Dance. It’s four double-digit scorers, a margin comfortable enough for walk-ons to run out the clock, and the best field-goal percentage UNC has had in a tournament game since 2016.

“I mean, with a 30-point win,” Harrison Ingram said, “it’s hard to say you played bad.”

Which is where perception comes in.

Perception that, moving locker to locker in a cramped concrete room in the bowels of Spectrum Center, was basically unanimous.

“As a team, definitely didn’t have our best performance, and individually, a lot of guys didn’t have their best performances,” sophomore guard Seth Trimble said. “We know we have to pick it up.”

Both things can simultaneously be true: that North Carolina should be glad it won Thursday, advancing to play Michigan State in the second round … and also that it cannot be satisfied with its performance against Wagner if it hopes to upend the ninth-seeded Spartans on Saturday.

Despite what the box score says, North Carolina did not play particularly well versus the worst team in the entire field. (That’s not an opinion, by the way; that’s strictly according to KenPom’s rankings, which slotted Wagner 291st out of 361 teams.) The Seahawks haven’t had enough players, due to injuries, to run a live practice since December.

And against that team, in front of a de facto home crowd, North Carolina … still had six first-half turnovers? Still allowed the Seahawks to make five of their nine second-half 3-point tries?

“That wasn’t,” freshman Elliot Cadeau said, “our best basketball.”

Continue reading.

Two of the most storied programs in college basketball square off in what should be one of the more exciting games in the round of 32. Both North Carolina and Michigan State cruised to opening-round wins, setting the stage for a clash of teams both ranked in the top 16 in KenPom. This West Regional game is not your typical 1-seed vs. 9-seed matchup, with the Tar Heels only slight favorites against a Spartans team that, despite its 20-14 record, is rounding into form in March in typical Tom Izzo fashion.

North Carolina’s point total will be the key number to watch for. If Michigan State is going to compete, it’ll need to use its sixth-ranked defense to muddy up the game against a Tar Heels team ranked 20th in the country in points per game. The Spartans are 3-10 this season when allowing 70 or more points (compared to 17-4 when holding opponents under that 70-point mark). The Tar Heels don’t live on offense alone (they’re seventh in KenPom in defensive efficiency), but it’s worth noting that five of their seven losses occurred when they scored fewer than 80 points.

There’s no substitute for experience, and both these squads have plenty of it. The Tar Heels have the sixth-most Division I experience on their roster, spearheaded by Armando Bacot and RJ Davis, both of whom got Final Four experience during North Carolina’s run to the national title game in 2022. Michigan State counters with a senior-led backcourt of Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard, giving the Spartans the 14th-highest minutes continuity in the country. In the one-and-done era, both teams have savvy veterans who have been on this stage before.

The Tar Heels are the better team on paper and have a defense that can make up for any lulls on offense. Michigan State doesn’t have that luxury, and we’ll find out soon if the Spartans’ 10-for-23 performance from deep in a win over Mississippi State was the start of a hot streak or an outlier for a team that averaged just 6.2 made triples per game in the regular season (266th in the country). Still, Izzo has 56 career NCAA Tournament wins and is one year removed from taking a seventh-seeded group to the Sweet 16. Bet against him at your own risk.