WASHINGTON (NEXSTAR) – Both presumptive candidates for the presidential election in 2024 will be at least 78 years old by Inauguration Day. One is also charged in four criminal cases and faces dozens of felony counts. Polls also show that many voters are dissatisfied with their choices, despite each man dominating his party’s primary process. But, can a candidate be replaced after winning the primaries? In short, yes, they can. However, it is a path that carries quite a bit of risk for the party.
Timing
The most difficult aspect of this hypothetical is considering when a candidate needs to be replaced. The two main focal points are the party convention and the general election.
Before the convention
Although millions vote for their preferred candidate in the party primary elections and caucuses, delegates are technically the ones to pick the nominee. When they gather at the convention, they parse up their votes based on the popular vote of their state’s primary or caucus, unless the state counts their delegates through a winner-take-all system.
However, many delegates aren’t legally bound to vote for the top vote-getter and use their discretion to pick a nominee. And, even the legally-bound delegates would have leeway if the candidate were no longer an option.
Prior to binding primaries, candidates were often selected through rounds of voting by delegates, which often led to lengthy, contentious contests to identify the party’s final candidate. A similar process could play out today as a so-called “brokered convention” if the primary winner were to step aside.
The natural replacement would most likely be the intended candidate for vice president, but each convention can operate like a caucus and try to select a new candidate if the VP pick doesn’t satisfy them.
After the convention
Let’s say everything proceeds in typical fashion and each convention picks their nominees as selected during primary voting. Then, perhaps in early September, a candidate needs to be replaced. Luckily, each party has similar rules for such a scenario.
The RNC or DNC would convene its members, as well as overall party leadership (think Mitch McConnell or Chuck Schumer), and put forward a new candidate. The vice-presidential candidate could also be a good fit in this scenario, although in today’s fractured political environment, it’s easy to speculate that members and leaders would still see an opportunity to pivot. The states would not have the time nor resources to hold new primary elections so the candidate would be put forward exclusively by party officials.
Some state ballots would need to be changed and a court would need to allow the change to happen. However, given the gravity of the situation, it would be reasonable to expect courts to oblige quickly.
Just before election
The last few weeks before the election get the fuzziest and a change at this time would present a host of difficulties. The parties could rush to pick the new candidate but if all of the ballots are already shipped, they would need to petition courts in many states to change them. The daunting logistics of replacing every single ballot would undoubtedly cause more issues than solutions.
Basically, the parties could try to replicate the previous option, but voters run the risk of being forced to vote for someone who either didn’t win party elections or can’t assume office. Do voters select that person anyway? Do they write someone in and hope that person wins? Party officials can influence popular sentiment but ultimately, it’s impossible to know if people would listen, let alone agree.
The lesson here is that confusion compounds the closer we get to Election Day so, if parties do intend to make a move, it’s vital that they do so early in the process. Fortunately, replacing a candidate after Election Day has slightly more clarity, albeit an entirely different can of worms.
