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Republicans look to grow legislative majorities in 2024 elections as Democrats work to build back
Democratic leader: ‘Everybody’s running to win, there’s no doubt about that’
Caleb McCullough, Gazette-Lee Des Moines Bureau
Mar. 23, 2024 5:00 am
DES MOINES — With a little over half a year to the November election, Iowa's Republicans and Democrats have begun campaigning for seats in the state Legislature, and both parties see opportunities to increase their numbers.
The filing deadline to qualify for the June primary ballot passed last week, and the candidate list for both parties is largely set. Parties can, and likely will, also nominate candidates at conventions in races where they do not have candidates on the ballot.
The November elections come after two consecutive cycles of Republicans increasing their majorities in the state Legislature as Iowa’s voters have backed the party and shifted to the right.
The legislative candidates also will be down-ballot from the presidential race this year, where Republican Donald Trump holds a clear advantage in the state that he won in 2016 and 2020. A Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll found that Trump holds a 15-point lead over incumbent Democrat Joe Biden among likely Iowa voters.
The factors combine to create optimism for Republican leaders, who are seeing potential to expand their dominance in the state and further entrench their majorities. But Democrats, saying they have seen widespread public dissatisfaction with Republicans’ agenda, also see an opportunity to win back some critical seats this year.
In the House, Republicans are defending a 64-seat majority, but House Speaker Pat Grassley of New Hartford says he still sees opportunities to grow that number.
House Republicans have strong incumbents with few retirements this year, he said, which will help them defend their existing seats.
“If you look at the election results from last election, there are seats that actually, probably with just a little bit more time and more resources, would have had an even larger majority,” he said. “… Where I sit today, I feel pretty good that we’ve filled the seats that we need to make sure are filled.”
Iowa House Minority Leader Jennifer Konfrst, a Democrat from Windsor Heights, said she thinks the party has strong candidates and sees potential to win seats around Des Moines, as well as in Clinton, Bettendorf and other mid-sized cities.
Konfrst said Democratic voter engagement fell significantly in 2022, leading to Republicans gaining four House seats and two Senate seats. This year, Democrats are working harder to engage voters, she said.
“I feel like our slate of candidates is very strong,” she said. “They’re great community leaders, they’re very aware and engaged on the issues … They’ll be great representatives for their community and they’ll be able to hold Republicans accountable.”
Senate Majority Leader Jack Whitver, a Republican from Grimes, said he thinks the party has a shot to flip seats in Cedar Falls, Polk County and Dubuque.
Whitver said Republicans have been rewarded with successive wins in recent years because of tax cuts and maintaining a strong state economy, and candidates would bring that message to voters on the campaign trail.
“Iowa’s in a terrific spot fiscally, policy-wise, and that's been the work of over the last seven, eight years,” he said. “So we're going to promote what we've been doing and what kind of leadership you can expect from us going forward.”
Senate Minority Leader Pam Jochum of Dubuque said Democratic leaders see three or four seats they hope to flip in November.
Jochum pointed to Senate districts in Polk County, Lee County and Iowa and Washington counties as potential pickups for Democrats.
“We really believe we need to get back down to the grassroots kind of politicking again, and campaigning, and meet people face to face, and that’s what we’re doing,” she said.
Des Moines suburbs a battleground
The suburbs of Des Moines — Johnston, West Des Moines and Ankeny — will be a battleground this year as candidates from both parties try to defend seats that were won with narrow margins in 2022.
Republican Party of Iowa Chair Jeff Kaufmann said those areas will be the party’s top targets to pick up seats.
“I think clearly it's going to be the suburbs where we're going to make our move,” Kaufmann said. “And it's important not only to grow those majorities, but as the party chair, that’s important to us too. Because a party not busy growing is a party that’s busy dying.”
In messaging to voters in those areas, Kaufmann said he believes the Republicans’ focus on “parents’ rights” and giving parents a bigger voice in education in recent years attracts people outside the normal GOP voter base.
He also said Iowa Republicans’ position on immigration and border security, a central focus of the national presidential campaign, will help their candidates win elections.
Iowa lawmakers passed a bill last week that would allow state officials to arrest and order the removal of immigrants who are not in the country legally, creating state enforcement of what is generally under federal authority.
Increasing immigration enforcement is a popular position nationally: In a February Pew poll, 77 percent of Americans said the situation at the southern border was either a “crisis” or a “major problem.”
“We're very quickly approaching a time, even though we're not close to a border, we're approaching a time when now immigration and an open border is not only affecting our state, but it's showing in terms of what people are saying are priorities, and it's showing in terms of what people are saying is a wedge issue for them,” he said.
Democrats have their own suburban seats they hope to flip, including a Senate seat in Johnston and Urbandale represented by Sen. Brad Zaun, and a House seat in Johnston represented by Rep. Eddie Andrews.
Jochum said voters in those areas are upset with the majority Republicans’ agenda that she said has gone “way too far.” She noted recent education changes led by Republicans, including the passage of a large school choice program last year and the efforts this year to reorganize the state’s area education agencies.
“We are also hearing a lot of people talk about how the government has really interfered in their personal lives, whether it has been reproductive rights or whether it's been book banning, doesn't matter,” she said. “They believe that Republicans are injecting the government too much into their personal private lives, and they want the government out of it.”
Other battleground cities
Outside the Des Moines metro, some of Iowa’s mid-sized cities also are gearing up for competitive elections.
In Council Bluffs, incumbents in both parties face tough re-election fights. Republican Sen. Dan Dawson is seeking re-election in District 20, where Democrats see potential to flip, though Republicans hold a 2,200 registered voter advantage.
Democratic Rep. Josh Turek in Council Bluffs won his election in 2022 by only six votes. Two Republicans are running in the primary for the nomination to challenge him.
In Mason City, Rep. Sharon Sue Steckman, a Democrat, is retiring after 16 years in the Legislature, and two new candidates are running to represent the seat that she won by less than 4 percent in 2022.
Democrats are also eyeing House seats in places like Clinton, Bettendorf and Burlington as they look to shrink the Republican majority. Konfrst said the interests of voters in those communities are similar to those in rural and urban communities around the state.
“Everybody needs costs to go down. Everybody wants good education for their kids,” she said. “So when we can focus on these issues that unite us, we can stop having some of these urban, suburban, rural battles that people like to put us in.”
Democrats want to build the bench
With only about a third of the seats in each legislative chamber, Democratic leaders are not expecting to gain control of the House or Senate during the election this year.
Konfrst said running candidates in heavily Republican districts helps build the party framework and keep local voters and county Democratic Parties engaged. Beyond growing their numbers, she said she hopes to be able to use this cycle to lay the groundwork to win more seats in future years.
“I’m looking at 15 to 17 seats over the next two to three cycles that can get us to the majority,” she said. “Everybody’s running to win, there’s no doubt about that, but I want to get folks out there to boost their name ID, who can meet their neighbors, who can meet folks, and are ready to go when they run the second time.”