He bought a nice two-bedder, two-bathroom condo in DT Toronto two years ago at the going rate. Just over a grand a foot. Better than most resales ($1,200) and sure cheaper than the new-builds ($1,500), he figured. So the 900 sf, fourth-floor unit came in at just over a million.
Of course, there was the double land transfer tax. That added $36,110. The mortgage of $805,000 at 4.63% came with payments of $4,513. Condo fees were $1,210 a month (always a little higher for an older building) and did not include parking. So, after putting down $310,000 – basically his entire net worth at age 32 – Sam’s monthly nut was $5,723. Adding in insurance ($80 a month) and property tax ($290), the total ran to $6,100. The Millennial insurance underwriter was also aware that if his downpayment had been stuck in ETFs yielding 6% he’d have $1,550 a month more cash flow. So the condo was really costing $7,650.
And, to rub it all in, an identical unit to his on the floor above sits for rent at $3,800 a month.
“This sucks,” he told me in a moany email last week. “I’m getting out.”
So why would a young guy bury all his wealth and take on $800,000 in debt to get an apartment he could have leased in the same place for half the cost?
Because it’s real estate. Everybody wants it. Properties always go up. And every politician in the land says we have a housing crisis because there aren’t enough homes to go around. Immigrants and students are Hoovering them all. Pierre and Doug said so. How can you possibly lose, buying in the middle of the biggest city with a solid 20% down, a decent mortgage rate and a nice, upscale unit?
Well, the only reasons Sam would spend double the amount to own instead renting are (a) pressure from a house-horny society and (b) the certainty of a tax-free capital gain when he sells because… real estate always goes up.
Here’s what just happened.
Sam contacted three real estate agents/brokers active in the area, had them visit over a couple of days, and collected their suggested listing prices. The shocking news: all of them said that given the better Spring market and the likelihood of coming rate cuts with more buyer activity that he should be able to sell… for what he paid.
Less the $36,000 transfer tax, of course. And minus the $40,000 (or so) in commission.
So after two years, $310,000 in a downpayment and $146,000 in payments, Sam would take a loss of at least $70,000 to sell. Or, he can hold on, keep being gutted by his obligations, and hope another irratioal real estate boom sweeps across the city.
He decides this week.
So what’s going on? The Fed, the Bank of Canada, almost all major economists, Ryan and Garth have all told you to expect interest rate cuts in 2024. The best guess? Three of them. Probably starting in June (maybe sooner here) and bringing down the cost of fixed-rate and variable mortgages by the summer or autumn.
Won’t cheaper rates deliver a higher price for Sam’s unit? People seem to think lower loan costs and increasing sales are a slam-dunk for home equity. But in that formula they forget one key factor. Inventory. Supply and demand. And counter to what every politician is telling you, we have way more of the former.
Here’s the latest condo count in Sam’s city, courtesy of data freak Scott Ingram:
Source: Scott Ingram. Click to enlarge.
There are currently just shy of 5,000 resale condos for sale in 416 alone. Inventory is growing faster than sales – now at around 3.7 months, or twice the level this time last year. If Sam decides to list, he’ll be competing with a slew of available units, and the only way he can secure a buyer is by – you guessed it – offering the best possible deal.
It’s not just condos, of course. Not just the canyons of DT Toronto. It’s everywhere.
Currently (today) there are 251,518 resale listings on the MLS system nationally. The GTA accounts for about 21,000. The Lower Mainland area has 14,000. The Montreal region offers 17,000 choices. Ottawa has 2,700 listings. Calgary and its burbs about three thousand.
Last month active listings were 15% higher than at the same time in 2023. In Vancouver the number of available properties grew by over 16%. In Ottawa new listings jumped almost 30% and the total number was 16% higher than a year earlier. In Calgary new listings jumped 13% but robust sales dropped the year/year number by an equal amount.
In short, the supply of real estate is going up, not down. Despite anticipated rate cuts, more sales activity and governments telling you the opposite. This also blows up the twin myths that (a) small-time or corporate investors are mopping up all the properties, forcing first-time buyers out and (b) voracious immigration has kicked natives to the curb.
But wait. What about newly-built stuff? Sam has to compete with those units as well.
The year just ended was a disaster for builders, despite Ottawa throwing $4 billion at construction and cities opening their floodgates for development. In the GTA sales fell 41% from 2022 and 51% from 2021. It was the worst showing in 15 years – and resulted in a massive buildup in inventory. Would you believe more than 22,000 units empty or unsold in the GTA alone? Poor Sam. Here’s Urbanation’s report:
With sales slowing much faster than new supply entering the market, total unsold new condominium inventory increased 41% year-over-year to 22,477 units in Q4-2023, representing a record high. Inventory was equal to 21.2 months of supply — roughly double the 10-12 months considered to be a balanced level. The 15.5 months of inventory in the 905 Region was substantially lower than the 26.7 months of supply in the City of Toronto.
Draw your own conclusions. But I’d say we’re being gaslit.
About the picture: “A pet of a different sort for your perusal,” writes David, in Calgary. “This is bearded dragon, Zoom. He is three and is about a foot long. He likes his lettuce and raspberries but really loves his crickets coated in calcium powder.”
To be in touch or send a picture of your beast, email to ‘[email protected]’.
85 comments ↓
So after two years, $310,000 in a downpayment and $146,000 in payments, Sam would take a loss of at least $70,000 to sell. Or, he can hold on, keep being gutted by his obligations, and hope another irratioal real estate boom sweeps across the city.
———
Does that include the $1,210/month condo fees for that period? Or is that on top of the $70,000 loss?
Included in the total of payments. – Garth
Keep repeating…
A house/condo is where you live…it is not a bank!
Appears some people will do everything possible for bragging rights…I bought this and I bought that etc.
A 4 year old child can spend money..it takes some intelligence to make money.
I am in the No Cuts Camp. Sure the data support one forthcoming. But I have a feeling our Rulers will come up with some excuse. Likely…ramping up the war in Ukraine. I also have War Draft on my 2024 bingo card.
— —
We were to be so healthy?! Science is going backward in the Former First World Countries.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68639144
The number of people leaving the workforce due to long term sickness is at its highest since the 1990s, a report suggests.
Adults economically inactive due to ill-health rose from 2.1m in July 2019 to a peak of 2.8m in October 2023, said the Resolution Foundation.
It is the “longest sustained rise” since 1994-1998, when records began.
— —
I owe I owe it’s off to work I go.
https://nypost.com/2024/03/23/us-news/migrant-tiktok-influencer-probed-by-child-services/
Migrant TikTok influencer probed by child services and admits he tried Canada first —but it didn’t give handouts
Reviewed the math…looks like the condo fee is included.
You can get a nice 2 bed, 2 bath condo in Yorkville for $3800/month rent + utilities (estimate $150/month) which includes parking spot and locker. Walking distance to Yonge and Bay subway stations.
Just crazy.
The second paragraph of this post made me sick to my stomach…
Curious to see the numbers around other types of housing units. Not condos. I would imagine the supply/demand dynamics are much different?
Sam would take a loss of at least $70,000 to sell.
_______________________________________
Divided by 36 months is $1944 plus the $1550 of potential lost investment income, equals $3994 rent paid.
He is lucky to be getting out breaking even enough.
Heaven help him if a special assessment pops up on the strata.
When I was starting out, I ball parked my life’s future income, and opted not to live in GTA house and every thing else poor.
A million for a condo plus strata? Sam; get on a highway ramp, smoke the tires and don’t stop driving until you’ve burned several tanks of gas, and don’t go back.
A millennial insurance underwriter can get a senior position in a hick town agency, happily ever after.
The attitude towards residential real estate out here in retirement central continues to baffle me.
As an example, we have friends that are in their early 80s. They paid cash for their 575K SFH house back in 2016, now appraised at around 950K. Zero plans to sell and capture the gain, in fact, they want to leave the place to the adult kids (in their late 40s), so that they’ll “have a place to live or retire”. I’m unsure if that triggers a BC transfer tax from the estate to the heirs?
They also have another house that was in the family for years in New Brunswick that was left to them in the family will, that they plan on keeping, just so the adult kids have a place where they can go and hang out under one roof if they choose.
Like I said, baffling, but more and more common in Parky as the population ages, is hanging onto the family house, and passing it on through the estate to grown kids that live in other parts of the province or country.
You have to be some kind of stupid to pay 1M for a place with $1200 in monthly fees.
Everybody knows that buying a $1M mortgage gets you unlimited social status in Canada. You can’t lose! Not even when the math shows that you just did….*facepalm*
You hit the RE nail on the head: we are being gaslit of course. Into believing that current prices should not dump as per the most basic economic ‘law’ of supply & demand. Whoever thinks that prices should not revert to pre-covid is holding hopes that Big Govt will continue to prop up values rather than witness true, free market dynamics.
The time is nigh for all good men to step back and watch the market dump. As Tiff holds higher for as long as possible.
So, after putting down $310,000 – basically his entire net worth at age 32 – Sam’s monthly nut was $5,723. Adding in insurance ($80 a month) and property tax ($290), the total ran to $6,100.
————
Good grief, sounds like a great life. Unless Sam is making 350K/yr, which I doubt. I know a young couple in the GTA making 280K, and their lifestyle is essentially the same as a factory worker circa 2005.
Total waste of potential. That kind of capital deployment invested builds 7 figures every decade. Sam will dump over 73K into this skybox in his first year of ownership, but his mortgage principal would only drop about… 18K.
If that ain’t depressing, I don’t know what is.
A continuation of what I’ve been saying for a couple years now.
Bankrupt Governments, at all levels, and both fiscally and morally, have residential real estate as their last cash cow to milk. You can’t take it offshore.
There is no where near a large enough industrial base to milk, and there won’t be until a u-turn in attitudes and policies, so RE is it.
I also don’t rule out a “one-time” RRSP tax fleecing if things get bad enough and they want to limit how bad they crater the currency.
For all those comfortable and smug RE owners without much of a mortgage left, and big drop in net worth will take the smugness down a touch. You won’t get sympathy from the peasants who can’t afford rent, and they now outnumber you.
Prediction….by the end of the 2020’s, less people will feel like Canada is a “rich” country that can afford to virtue signal to the rest of the world.
Just 1 example of the reality that it does not always work out to buy.
“A dose of reality.”
Reality is that dogawful mutts and their narcissistic, stupid, lawbreaking owners have become a useless blight upon human civilization and the planet.
Yet another Toronto child is facing a murderous end of life or ruination thereof today because of this despicable species.
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/child-has-life-altering-injuries-after-attack-by-dog-in-toronto-waterfront-park-saturday/article_4314144c-e96e-11ee-af26-4781271910bf.html
Yes, a picture today on this blog of a bearded dragon is far better than a disgusting pooch.
But, Garth, if you truly care about children and our future together, why post yet another dog photo tomorrow, or any other day?
You have a heart and a brain. Please use them both.
That is utter lunacy, over a million bucks for 900sq ft!
There is just too much money in Canadian real estate. Where there is money, scam artists thrive. Be careful.
DELETED
#94 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.24.24 at 9:49 am
Thing with externalities is that someone already pays but the payment is made by those who benefit least and it may be made in the form of early death or disability.
In Canada, you and I and fellow tax payers fork out for higher insurance costs, higher healthcare costs and higher costs to repair damaged infrastructure wasted by amplified weather extremes and costs of wars that have social unrest at the root. A high price on CO2 means less will be produced and lower external costs.
Again, globally we all already pay. Fixing the cost to those who use carbon and benefit from the energy is the correct action.
Is there a price at which real estate is deemed unaffordable? Apparently not at prevailing mortgage rates.
I bought a 2bed/2bath condo in the lower mainland in 2006. About a year and 45 weeks left on the mortgage locked in at 2%. My monthly payment including property tax is just over this guys strata fees LOL. This will likely be the only real estate I ever own. Like Garth, my wife and I have no kids so no reason to ever want anything bigger. Just need to figure out how to get some cash flow out of this place without selling and having to rent at a much higher amount.
It hard to know what to believe among all the Different Real Estate write ups, but the one thing for sure is, sales are not as Rosy as they make them out to be.
The one great piece of advice that I have treasured from this greater fool site is, when you don’t know what to do, is to do nothing.
One local realtor in my area keeps on flogging over and over on a weekly basis, about those great investment rental opportunities that are available, I have went through those weekly listings in curiosity only, in my own humble opinion, they are train wrecks waiting to happen. With Landlords walking around with government and client targets on their backs, WHO in their own sane mind would buy property rentals right now.
Always invested to stay, ETF’s will always find their way.
Quote of the day: are you smarter than a grade fiver, squatters are more educated and smarter than landlords and becoming more and more plentiful
@#3
Nothing to see here. America sanctioned Venezuela which exacerbated an already dire refugee crisis.
About 2 million Venezuelans in Colombia, 1 million in Ecuador, 150,000 in Trinidad, 100,000 in Guyana.
All because Exxon wanted to drill for more oil offshore neighbouring Guyana.
The taxpayers pay for the chaos in the end.
The other week Sir Ponzie was throwing shade on the “menial” jobs in Airports. Try going a week without your office washroom being cleaned, stocked; or the lunchroom garbages going un-emptied. Chaos would ensue.
These are important front-line jobs.
Until…yep this is why a UBI is forthcoming.
https://twitter.com/anandmahindra/status/1748236062798029039
A robot Janitor by Somatic; cleaning bathrooms all by itself?Amazing! As automakers, we are accustomed to using a variety of Robots in our factories.
But this application, I admit, is far more important.
https://twitter.com/nbellotoronto/status/1771541731592327524?t=32KfGBTHVJkw8ixw-5R4IQ&s=19
@OLG_CA lottery ticket vending machines now in #Toronto. Instant/scratch and draw tickets available. Spotted at 777 Bay St. ID scan required. #gambling
— —
Self-serve automated stores are popping up and entry is via App. You may not buy or sell without the Mark. If you lose your Smart Phone you would starve in this kind of set-up. Or, if you were de-banked, de-platformed when your social credit score fell. But here I am getting ahead of things :-)
https://aisle24.ca/shop/
Groceries made easy
Everyone needs a hassle-free way to pick up everyday items. Aisle 24 is a fully automated, cashier-less grocery market for Canadian residential communities, condos, apartments, and campuses.
‘Zoom’ the bearded dragon has the best ‘seriously?’ look:)
I haven’t read over the comments thus far but expect at least some will claim that yes indeed, students (foreign ones) plus immigrants are snaffling all the available affordable RE. Which is extremely hard to believe, since your average student apparently ends graduating with a steamy pile of student debt. Maybe the foreign ones don’t, but I do recall reading how food banks were shutting their doors to the foreign student or possibly any student horde because apparently the students were using said food banks to keep their cupboards full & using the funds that otherwise would have been spent feeding themselves on other things. Meanwhile, I’m sure immigrants all of them arrive with bags of cash in hand, ready to buy. This supposes they had the financial assets to liquidate prior to coming to Canada in the first place. Since most immigrants state ‘wanting a better life’ as a reason to immigrate, seems possible that their chances of having built up a pile of assets where they currently live weren’t optimal. Better life implies better chances to improve one’s standard of living.
Today’s blog example puzzles me. Seems to me that an insurance underwriter would be very aware of the hazards implicit in owning, especially owning a condo where special assessments can occur. The gamble taken was that the price appreciation would not only offset but far exceed any other ‘investment’. Risky, like buying those ‘junk’ bonds because they offer very high rates of return. One might make out like a bandit but most end up more like the one being robbed.
“Of course, there was the double land transfer tax. That added $36,110. The mortgage of $805,000 at 4.63% came with payments of $4,51.”
What’s the point of a “double land transfer tax”? It looks like it is meant to be an “anti-flipping tax.”
It seems we have an example of why an actual “anti-flipping” tax is or will be, useless to curb rising real estate prices
If he kept his investments and rented the place in the same building for 3800. It would only cost him 2250, if he is getting 1550 a month from his investments.
Fareed Zakaria
In this morning’s broadcast as the question:
Why in a “booming” economy is Biden’s approval rating so low?
And, of course, he’s got the answer in his latest book.
He argues that the adage “It’s the Economy, stupid” is no longer valid.
Culture and Class clashes are what concerns voters the most these days.
Immigration, legal or not, is in the news every day.
And of course, the disappearance of the middle class.
And also, the ever increasing wealth gap.
Food for thought.
Since all real estate is local, Sam is indeed high-centered by the squalid Toronto condo market.
But wait.
There are 251,518 MLS listings across Canada? That compares with over 330,000 pre-Covid, so there’s a long way to go before we have excess inventory.
Mortgages were 1.5% then and 5% now. Inventory levels are actually quite good given the pool of available buyers. – Garth
32 years old, can afford a $310,000 down payment and $6100 per month in direct ownership costs. That’s a high income job.
Besides Supply swelling I have to ask why so many people bailing when they know few buyers?
Maybe, this is that long predicted moment when Cdns tapped out cash wise and have to sell?
See how this story develops. Very good leave it to the imagination, put 2 and 2 together, ending. I liked that.
Too bad Sam can’t rent the unit out and take slow, gradual losses until rates come down rather than eating a large sum of money in one go.
———————–
Off Topic
First bbq today I ate outside. 30 deg C in Reggio Calabria today on my terrazzo per my trusty Weber thermometer. Blue sky. Bright sun. Oh, and the non “selective breeding” meat that was marinated in Rosemary and Sage naturally flavoured Olive Oils, Mamma Mia…
James Brown (I Feel Good).
———————–
PS Anyone IN THE KNOW from Steerage:
Idiot me after near 8 years in Italy learned their dividend tax rate, regardless of where the dividends come from, is taxed at 26%.
My US divs get taxed at 30% by CRA (evil foreign devil America).
After paying those taxes, off the top when divs received, no further obligations to report in Italy or Canada (no declaration necessary in Italy unlike Canada).
Now, that 4% difference adds up to a TIDY SUM per year for me.
Thus, I want to transfer my shares from TD Webbroker to Fineco here in Italy.
——————————————————————–
Has anyone out there, Garth’s Richey Riches, transferred their shares from Canada to an EU country? Help a poor boy out.
——————————————————————–
Let me know if you have done it and how it went, good or bad or in between. I will check the Comments here tonight every so often.
Of course, I will be contacting TD Webbroker (they have no Help Line, you have to message via Easyweb) and Fineco where I can talk to a live person here in Reggio next week.
I trust the banks but I trust others that have done it before more.
Lulumon stock dropped quite a bit the other day.
I guess people are realizing that vanity is not a virtue.
With builders sitting on so much inventory is not one of them tempted to break ranks and cut prices to get cash flowing? It seems that prices in Canada are way sticker than in the U.S. and it would be interesting to analyze the reasons
Why would they sell at a net loss. Not what corporations do. – Garth
Sam needs a course in simple math.
Bitcoin, SPY, Gold, house prices all at or near ATH. Where is a cash burdened person supposed to invest for growth in 2024? Is it Big Short time on all of it?
That question has been answered here many times. – Garth
#83 Faron on 03.23.24 at 11:11 pm
#76 Don Guillermo on 03.23.24 at 9:25 pm
52 No way on 03.23.24 at 4:46 pm
Oh right, no useless crippling carbon tax.
—
Oh, really?
Maybe you intended to say the tax is beneficial, in which case I agree but would prefer a much larger carbon tax equivalent to covering the external cost of the fuel.
****
I’m sorry what?
Why do Liberals always want more taxes? Have you noticed as our taxes go up, so does the size of the government, and yet the quality of government services continues to go down?
Liberalism is a disease…
#16 tkid
“That is utter lunacy, over a million bucks for 900sq ft!”
And then there’s this 1 bathroom only…
https://housesigma.com/on/toronto-real-estate/707-388-richmond-st-w/home/owJKR7PrEE9YXeLP?id_listing=Xawjy4NVpXw3rR18&event_source=
@LuluLEMON stock
The Simpsons was predicting since the 1990s that anyone wearing yoga pants and athleisure in public will become liabilities and a mockery, like the Richard Simmons parody:
https://youtu.be/fKPzz_TZeXs
JUST WHEN YOU THOUGHT IT COULDN’T GET ANY WORSE. IT DOES.
You might think the condo market is in for a world of pain, this will prove to be a minor hic cup compared to all the pandemic vacation home buyers. Memory lane, Tiff had their backs, interest rates, Mmm tasty. The pandemic/ low interest rates front loaded the demand for vacation property. Price was no problem. Real estate agents advice, they are not making any more waterfront, sign, press hard, the second copy is yours. Viola, like magic you are now the proud owner of a black fly money pit. Time to pop the Baby Duck bottle of wine the real estate/hairdresser dropped off on closing. As for today’s mortgage rates, taxes, insurance, maintenance etc. Well that’s a horror story we only tell around the fire pit after the kids go to bed. Mmm, the winds coming up, I hope a spark doesn’t land on the cottage roof.
Thanks Garth, and Sam!, for the cautionary tale.
As they say, it’s not about how much you make… but how much you keep. It’s nice when both measures are high!
Beautiful spring day here with great surplus of Vitamin D. Life is excellent!
:-)
Yes!
Tap into your lizard brains.
A developer bought the large lot next to my parents place in Esquimalt BC. They split it into 3 separate lots and have built 2.5 houses on it over the last 3+ years. They sold the first one ($900K?) before building the 2nd which is still for sale. It’s been on the market for over 9 months despite a $100K price drop to $1.5M. They’ve stopped construction on the 3rd house and it’s been sitting unfinished with Tyvek waving in the breeze for the last 3 months.
So what gives, Garthie? Your blog helps so many in steerage invest and make loads of cash. So where’s my cut?
I’ve got until tomorrow to make up the $464 million bond that Hillary’s deep state wokesters say I have to pay.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/24/politics/what-happens-trump-civil-fraud-bond/index.html
I’m only asking my Canadian supporters on your blog for 10% of that. So get your crowdfunding going, Turner, NOW!
If you don’t pay your share, my pal Vlad and I will have some fun plans for you in 2025…….
Condos are not an investment.
You need to buy dirt.
Our 1.4 million dollar four bed semi, bought at the peak of the pandemic boom and located in a popular Toronto neighbourhood, just sold for 2.3 million yesterday.
We’ve put 200k in renovations into it. So 700k upside?
Buy houses not condos
I just bought a six bed fixer upper with a park for a back yard for 2.4 mil.
Paid cash.
Life is good.
On the internet everyone’s a genius. – Garth
re: Immigrants and students are Hoovering them all.
they are not necessarily buying them but renting them which makes real estate great for landlord/investors
that is the biggest reason why almost 25% of homes are owned by investors – 100’s of thousands of new Canadians, students and foreign workers a year provide a ready market for rentals
re: #15
hopefully can sue the owner for everythign they have
dog owners should be required to carry liabiltiy insurance
The best thing I can say to Sam is that he is young and can, with a fair wind, recover from this mess.
I was 38 before I saw the error of such ways, ran off to sea, and have since made amends.
A nice encounter on the South Dundas waterfront today. A lovely lady, recently arrived from Holland. Farmers, she and her husband and a handful of kids have bought a dairy farm. They were obliged to sell in the “old country” because of environmental rules – dairy farming is polluting, apparently. They’ll be great citizens, imo.
Of course, our dairy industry is presently somewhat shielded from competition. Just south of here there are few, if any, 150 head dairy farms – they own thousands just to be profitable (average was 130 thirty years ago).
#33 Owl Eyes on 03.24.24 at 3:05 pm
With builders sitting on so much inventory is not one of them tempted to break ranks and cut prices to get cash flowing? It seems that prices in Canada are way sticker than in the U.S. and it would be interesting to analyze the reasons
Why would they sell at a net loss. Not what corporations do. – Garth
———————————————————-
Precisely the reason why builder owned, new, unsold and unoccupied units for over 183 days should be taxed as government is taxing units that are used for less than 183 days and that are in the ownership of the regular people. Builder should have 183 days to sell or potentially rent the unit in order to avoid the empty home tax. It is after all an empty home that is unused…
In my neighborhood there is a decent number of new and unsold condos that are empty in excess of 18 months….
Taxes make real estate more expensive. How does that help anything? Weird logic. – Garth
If the truth gets out we will certainly run out of greater fools. Perhaps we need to pre qualify immigrants for million plus mortgages before we let them in and give them a limited time to purchase. That will keep the game going for a little longer. My consulting fees for success are available to the political party with the highest bid.
#36
Why do Liberals always want more taxes? Have you noticed as our taxes go up, so does the size of the government, and yet the quality of government services continues to go down?
Liberalism is a disease
————————-
I don’t keep track of stuff like this.
Too busy having a life.
But if you’ve done the research and found a correlation between taxes and size of Government, then please provide us some graphs to prove your point.
We have watched a few episodes of Cash Cab-Music Edition, and I see what’s going on with Toronto now.
Everyone is hip, cool, unusual looking in a special edition way (to themselves), hopping in a cab to go be seen and party in clubs.
I wonder what a Long Island Iced Tea cocktail costs. A five shot wonder! The price must be pretty sobering.
I was thinking of moving to Toronto , Vancouver or Victoria. I need a furnished studio to rent . All these cities are crime ridden and so expensive .With my EU passport I decided I wanted a more cheaper and safer place with an ocean view looking over Monaco for 1100 cad a month !
https://www.properstar.ca/listing/96031416
Bought my 2000 sq ft home in 2016 for $175K after fixups, paid cash. Costs <$700 a month to float it.
Todays price compare… $8.3671 per kg (cad) for boneless chicken not on sale, southern states. Sale price on flip today at food basics, 10.27. Hmmm, carbon factor or a bird cartel here?
@#50 Ponzius Pilatus on 03.24.24 at 6:23 pm
#36
Why do Liberals always want more taxes? Have you noticed as our taxes go up, so does the size of the government, and yet the quality of government services continues to go down?
Liberalism is a disease
————————-
I don’t keep track of stuff like this.
Too busy having a life.
But if you’ve done the research and found a correlation between taxes and size of Government, then please provide us some graphs to prove your point.
–
bizarre how those diseased libs have been in power over 70% of the time.
@ #52 Outrage
I was thinking of moving to Toronto , Vancouver or Victoria. I need a furnished studio to rent . All these cities are crime ridden and so expensive .With my EU passport I decided I wanted a more cheaper and safer place with an ocean view looking over Monaco for 1100 cad a month !
https://www.properstar.ca/listing/96031416
—————————————————————
I hope you’re not claustrophobic. 15 square meters is about 160 square feet.
https://www.ctvnews.ca/lifestyle/this-italian-town-is-struggling-to-sell-off-its-empty-homes-for-one-euro-here-s-why-1.6820093
Still trying to sell for one euro!
#52 Outrage on 03.24.24 at 6:30 pm
I was thinking of moving to Toronto , Vancouver or Victoria. I need a furnished studio to rent . All these cities are crime ridden and so expensive .With my EU passport I decided I wanted a more cheaper and safer place with an ocean view looking over Monaco for 1100 cad a month !
https://www.properstar.ca/listing/96031416
——————————————-
Yes for sure you did, that makes complete sense to go from looking at those cities to landing on Monaco.
I really felt like fish for lunch today but settled on Guinea Pig.
But wait. What about newly-built stuff? Sam has to compete with those units as well.
The year just ended was a disaster for builders, despite Ottawa throwing $4 billion at construction and cities opening their floodgates for development. In the GTA sales fell 41% from 2022 and 51% from 2021. It was the worst showing in 15 years – and resulted in a massive buildup in inventory. Would you believe more than 22,000 units empty or unsold in the GTA alone?
I would believe it. In Ottawa, builders are very slow to build. I see them spending maybe $200,000 on applications to Planning Committee but no building. On the very best properties in the very best locations they are actually building.
The realtors’ cartel loves to talk about pent-up demand. But they never told you about all the pent-up supply, which is finally finding its way on the market as it dawns on more and more sellers that at current elevated prices, buyers are few and far between, and selling now might be their last chance to break even on their “investment”.
Thanks Garth for today’s eye-opener!
hmmm.
Was Moscow just the beginning?
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/france-raises-terror-alert-warning-highest-level-2024-03-24/
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pope-skips-palm-sunday-homily-continues-service-2024-03-24/
Or are Western govts taking US Intelligence reports seriously……..
I have been looking at a home.
House is over $1m – but the seller is holding to his price.
So I walked.
Cash deal w/ no conditions.
Buyers market right now.
@#55 fomosapien
“bizarre how those diseased libs have been in power over 70% of the time.”
+++
So they can take 70% of the blame for the last 157 years of colonialism?
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/secret-rcmp-report-warns-canadians-may-revolt-once-they-realize-how-broke-they-are
Almost two THOUSAND comments to this article….
There’s a lot of very angry peeps out there.
I have an original Jiffy POP and a two/four of OV in the garage – time and patience people – the sh*t show that cometh for this country (hope I live long enough) will be like Chernobyl
#56 Vancouver Keith
Buddy I can hook you up with a basement crawl space in my brothers place in Welland – 1099 a month- right on the Welland River, crayfish, beaver, muskrat and all the wildlife at your feet – the smell meh you get use to it
Things are remarkably active out here in the lower mainland. An elderly couple I know decided it was time for assisted living, put their Apt. on the market Friday. First open house yesterday. Multiple offers today, a couple over what I thought was a pretty high asking price. White Rock so popular with the elderly. Nice enough Apt, but no view and really nothing special . I am not sure of the sq. ft. but about average for a 20 or so year old building, 1 bed. Sold for just shy of 1 Mill. within 48 hours of being listed. I was very surprised both at the price and how fast it was snapped up. I figured it would be a struggle to even hit $750,000.
The revolutionaries are stirring …
Steve-O
—-
ABC: Australia’s housing crisis has become a fierce political battle that could have major implications for the next federal election
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-25/australia-housing-crisis-political-battle-federal-election-issue/103625554
“The great Australian dream of owning your own home has been fading for a long time — there’s nothing new about this. But the crisis is now baked in — and it has arguably become the big generational disrupter, changing votes and threatening to hurt the government at the next poll.”
A mortgage of $805,000 & monthly carrying costs of $7,650.
For a 2 bedder condo in Toronto.
ahhhahahahahahaha…
What an IDIOT… what a loser!!!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTpiVA1fDFs
“Ma the meatloaf!!”
@#66 Doug T
Smell is one thing, but humidity is another. Not something we experience too often out here in Lotusland. Can’t hack it if you don’t grow up with it.
A nice video of a big cat, to go with the blog pictures of the bobcats, beautiful animals.
https://www.castanet.net/news/Penticton/478574/Pentictonite-captures-video-of-lynx-wandering-through-Skaha-Hills
When a Currency that is the 7th largest in the world, is Debased, mirroring, the USD debasement, then guess what happens, money is worth less, and prices rise. This is true for most assets. Just look at NVIDIA, it is now worth more than the GDP of Canada. Of course it is…. the market say so, or COST Price only 49 times earnings. The fallacy is now Viral. Allowing the Money supply to increase without any corresponding productivity, is akin to saying,.. “Heck we don’t need any Balance Sheets or GAAP principles, our investors are doing just fine”
#65 Doug t
“the sh*t show that cometh for this country (hope I live long enough) will be like Chernobyl”
…………………………………………………………………………………………………..
You only need to live another 4.5 to 5 more years to witness it.
Hedge/preserve your dollars at todays value before its gone.
Is the current state of the world bothering any other commentators? Maybe we need to look at the bigger picture rather than the current cost of TO condos.
We are giving some thought to downsizing our main home in England into our summer place as British south coast summers are mild and sunny. Then making our Italian summer home into our winter home and becoming Italian retired residents as Italia summers are now hellish high temperatures. This would reduce our joint home energy costs to the minimum.
We would have to live in Italy 183 days a year and as long as we can prove that between us we have a retirement income of 38,000 euros per year we would pay 7% total tax regardless of source of income.
A negative is that Italy won’t exchange driving licenses you have to take your test again in Italian but my non-Italian friend did that and all she had to do was drive the tester down the road to his fav bar. Italy has great public transit so does it really matter.
Putin, Canada’s direct northern neighbour is starting to worry us too and nobody bothers with the dirt poor south of Italy. Here we live too close for comfort to the Royal Navy bases.
Food for thought. Maybe we are moving into a world where personal safety is more important than RE returns.
you can’t count MLS listings as “supply” unless the buildings/units are unoccupied
what will happen to the current occupants once their dwelling is sold, will they be deported or shot?
Of course it is supply. And it currently exceeds demand. – Garth
Interesting article talking to the proportion of renters versus homeowners (disposable) income allocated towards housing.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/home-ownership-essential-for-a-workable-retirement-plan-dale-jackson-1.2050523
“It finds nearly half of the Canadian wealth accumulation has been driven by home ownership over the past three decades. Since 2010, as home equity grew, the average homeowner saw their net worth grow from nine times household disposable income to 13 times.
Over the same period, the net worth for renters grew from three times household disposable income to only 3.5 times.
To further illustrate the growing wealth gap between homeowners and renters, the report shows the portion of income homeowners allocated to housing fell to 21 per cent in 2022 from 23 per cent in 1999.
In comparison, the portion of income renters allocated to housing rose to 29 per cent in 2022 from 25 per cent in 1999, even though incomes rose at the same pace.“
A balanced article per the following portion at the end:
“While risk in a portfolio of stocks can be diversified across sectors, geographic lines and asset classes, your home carries the concentrated risk of one sector (real estate), one sub-sector (residential) and one geographic area (your neighbourhood).
Data on home values are based on averages and not all homes appreciate at the same rate; or appreciate at all.
A balanced, diversified, investment portfolio that includes a home is key to a secure retirement.”
I guess that last sentence above runs true so long as you can afford said house and it doesn’t gut you.
For those who love to criticize gov’t waste, how about spending $8 million telling people ‘it’s happening here’ in Ontario.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/ontario-government-advertising-campaign-its-happening-here-1.7152383
Of course the ads didn’t show patients being treated in hallways, overcrowded classrooms and carjackings. Those things are happening here.
The longer the Liberals delay dissolving govt….the worse for them it will be on Election day…
You obviously do not have political experience. – Garth
People who buy have not been able to afford the units or homes for a long time. Everything has been predicated on tremendous rises in evaluations. People have now gotten completely used to it as being normal that they do not know any better. Once those returns stop coming, all you have left is costs and down sides, and no appreciation. Even if there is appreciation, you have to put so much money down to an asset that gives horrible returns. It is only possible with very cheap money, and it robbed Canada its productivity. We still think we can continue on this path, and that zero money is coming back – because it would have to for it to continue. Everyone wants the next buyer to pay for their debt – they themselves can’t.
Garth,
No mention of the G&M article about OSFI requiring new loans to be 4.5 times income starting early 2025? It’s been generally in teh 7.5 to 10 times range the past few years before the rate hikes. Is that bearish or bullish?
Tell me when will you be mine?
Tell me CONDO CONDO CONDOOOOOOOOOOO!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2etakoV-rg
Ahhhhhh….the good old days!!!
#78 crowdedelevatorfartz on 03.25.24 at 9:43 am
Why?
Because the Cons will promise to repaint over the rainbows on the cross walks and Canadians will rush to get Conservative memberships.
Great strategy.
Your extreme bias is blinding you, and underestimating the stupidity of the right.
The most shocking part of this post is the unit can rent for $3800 a month. Well tied for the $1200 a month in condo fees. For me $1200 is the rent I would pay for a one bedroom. I can easily find for $2400 a two bedroom to rent in a luxury building in a city I wont mention. Please stop coming here.
Leverage works both ways including with residential real estate investment. For the next decade it is all about deleveraging and moving back down the real estate ladder. Some folks are going to fall off the ladder if they fail to deleverage enough to satisfy their creditors.
Greedy Canadians let greed get in the way of basic common sense.
Thanks, Turner, for obeying my order.
The added financial support from your deplorables here has helped me avoid the deep state legal roadblocks that Hillary’s friends tried to throw at me for this week.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald-trump/ny-appeals-court-reduces-trumps-bond-civil-fraud-case-175-million-vict-rcna144659
Just another victory for my leadership.
MAGA