Bernie Moreno, the Donald Trump-backed Ohio Senate candidate, faces a tough battle against incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in the highly contested Buckeye State, recent polls suggest.
Moreno clinched the Ohio Republican nomination on Tuesday, beating out the GOP-endorsed state Sen. Matt Dolan by over 17 percentage points, meaning he will face Brown in November. The Associated Press called the race after Moreno slid ahead by four percentage points.
Several surveys conducted before the Republican primary put Brown ahead in a then-hypothetical matchup between the pair.
Newsweek reached out to the campaigns of Sen. Sherrod Brown and Bernie Moreno for comment.
A poll of 1,298 Ohio voters from East Carolina University's Center for Survey Research, conducted between March 8 and 11, positioned the Democrat as beating out Moreno by four percentage points, 45 to 41 percent. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.2 percentage points.
This same poll indicated Dolan would pull ahead of Brown by two percentage points. "Our polling results suggest that Matt Dolan may give Republicans the best chance to unseat Sherrod Brown in the November general election," Jay Morris, Senior Polling Scientist for the East Carolina University Center for Survey Research, said at the time.
Several other polls shared the same findings. Robert Gutsche, associate professor in the School of Communication and Multimedia Studies at Florida Atlantic University and strategic lead at PolCom Lab, who assisted with a March 13 poll, stated, "With these poll numbers, Dolan appears to be the strongest challenger for the incumbent senators."
The text message-based poll by Florida Atlantic University, involving 818 participants, showed Brown ahead of Moreno by 11 percentage points—47 to 36 percent—with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.
"Ohioans are unhappy with much of what is going on in politics today and rate many political figures negatively. Sherrod Brown is a notable exception to this frustration, and he will need to draw upon his personal brand if he is to win reelection this fall," said Dr. Robert Alexander, director of the Institute for Civics and Public Policy (ICAPP) at Ohio Northern University.
The ICAPP's web-based poll of 1,241 likely voters, conducted between March 6 and March 11, showed Brown edging out Moreno by 6 percentage points in a matchup. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percent.
And an Emerson College Polling Ohio survey of 1,300 registered votes, conducted between March 7 and 10, put Brown ahead of Moreno by 39 percent to 34 percent. The poll's margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points still positioned the Democrat as the victor.
While Brown is currently favored by several polls, campaigning in the contested state remains fraught. Ohio Democratic Party spokesperson Katie Smith said in a statement to Newsweek following the Republican primary: "Moreno is out for himself, not Ohioans."
Moreno wrote on X, formerly Twitter, "I look forward to uniting our party and working to send Sherrod Brown packing in November!"
Brown first won his seat in 2006 and has since secured two reelection campaigns in 2012 and 2018. In his most recent election against Rep. Jim Renacci, Brown garnered 53.4 percent of the vote.
Update 03/26/24, 12:21 p.m. ET: This article has been updated to reflect the final polling count difference between Moreno and Dolan.
Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
About the writer
To read how Newsweek uses AI as a newsroom tool, Click here.
