It’s been a long, cold, weird winter without baseball. Thankfully, those days are over.
The 2024 season starts now and whether you’re still trying to figure out your fantasy team name or frantically searching for someone to explain this Shohei Ohtani gambling mess, we’ve got you covered.
Hope may spring eternal for every club this time of year, but it certainly doesn’t last. To put it bluntly, some fanbases are going to have a very bad time this season if their win totals are any indication. As we do every year, we’ll go team-by-team and determine which are destined to hit their over and which unders are already a lock.
We’ll throw in baseball’s notorious PECOTA projectionso, too, but be warned the algorithm went 15-15 on preseason win totals last year. Let’s see if we can do any better.
Arizona Diamondbacks: 84.5
Opening Line: 84.5 PECOTA Wins Projection: 83.8 BetMGM Public Betting : Over 84% (Tickets), Over 75% (Handle) Best Bet: Under The D-Backs made a charmed run to the World Series last year, but given the talent amassed by their National League West rivals in the Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres, the road this year will be tougher even if Corbin Carroll can avoid the sophomore slump. Take the under
Atlanta Braves: 101.5
Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
Opening Line: 101.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 101.3
BetMGM Public Betting: Under 57% (Ticket), Over 58% (Handle)
Best Bet: Over
Atlanta has reached at least 101 wins in back-to-back seasons since winning the World Series in 2021. There’s no reason the Braves shouldn’t get back to that number again in 2024 — especially with Chris Sale now in the rotation.
Baltimore Orioles: 90.5
(Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images)
Opening Line: 87.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 87.2
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 84% (Ticket), Over 54% (Handle)
Best Bet: Under
The opening line at 87.5 was probably the right call for anyone who wants the over here, but 90.5 is just a touch too rich for a team more likely to take a step back after overachieving last year. The AL East is just too competitive.
Boston Red Sox: 77.5
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Opening Line: 79.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 78.4
BetMGM Public Betting: Under 71% (Ticket), 79% (Handle)
Best Bet: Under
Yes, the AL East is stacked. Except for Boston. Which will almost certainly finish dead last in this division by design.
Chicago Cubs: 84.5
Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
Opening Line: 83.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 81.2
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 80% (Ticket), Over 89% (Handle)
Best Bet: Over
This team probably tops out around 86-88 wins, but a few deadline adds and some breakout performances from the likes of Pete Crow-Armstrong could move things along earlier in the season. Either way, the over looks good with the Brewers poised to take a step back in the division.
Chicago White Sox: 60.5
Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY
Opening Line: 62.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 66.7
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 68% (Total), Over 86% (Handle)
Best Bet: Over
As bad as the White Sox will be in 2024, the franchise hasn’t finished with fewer than 61 wins in a full season since 1970. The team wants to rebuild on the fly and, in an abysmal AL Central, it’s certainly possible. Just because the games won’t be pretty doesn’t mean someone won’t win them.
Cincinnati Reds: 82.5
Sam Greene-USA TODAY
Opening Line: 82.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 78.6
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 74% (Ticket), Over 63% (Handle)
Best Bet: Over
A full season of Elly De La Cruz might just help the Reds mess around and win the NL Central. This will be one of the most watchable teams in baseball.
Cleveland Guardians: 79.5
Opening Line: 76.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 82.6
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 90% (Ticket), Over 97% (Handle)
Best Bet: Over
Again, it’s the American League Central, but this Guardians team should be in the hunt for the playoffs all season long. Health might be the biggest factor for this one to hit.
Colorado Rockies: 60.5
Mark J. Rebilas-USA
Opening Line: 60.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 57.3
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 67% (Ticket), Under 58% (Handle)
Best Bet: Under
The Rockies won 59 games last year and didn’t do anything to improve this winter. Colorado spent the lowest amount of money of any MLB team over the offseason. The team will reflect it.
Detroit Tigers: 81.5
Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Opening Line: 79.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 75.3
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 62% (Ticket), Over 58% (Handle)
Best Bet: Over
Definitely one of the more popular over plays on the market, the young Tigers core is probably a better value play as the AL Central champs considering they’ll have to top 80 wins to claim the division.
Houston Astros: 92.5
Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Opening Line: 92.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 95.0
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 80% (Total), Over 74% (Handle)
Best Bet: Over
The Astros finished with 90 wins last year, but this feels like a lock if the core continues to perform the way it has and Jose Abreu is even a tiny bit better at the plate during his second season in Houston.
Kansas City Royals: 73.5
Jay Biggerstaff
Opening Line: 72.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 70.7
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 82% (Ticket), Over 93% (Handle)
Best Bet: Under
The Royals have a lot of talent, but they’re probably still a year away from being a year away. It’s hard to disagree with PECOTA here.
Los Angeles Angels: 72.5
Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
Opening Line: 71.5
PECOTA Wins Projection:
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 65% (Ticket), Over 73% (Handle)
Best Bet: Over
Don’t be mistaken, this is still not a good team. But in the pre-Ohtani years, Mike Trout was still enough to keep them from losing more than 90 games in any season. Doubt the Greatest Player in Baseball at your own peril.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 103.5
Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Opening Line: 103.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 100.1
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 57% (Ticket), Under 71% (Handle)
Best Bet: Under
Regardless of what Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts would like us to believe, the vibes in the clubhouse have to be a bit weird amid Ohtani’s betting scandal. Let’s assume there’s some early struggles that cost the Dodgers to miss out on this total.
Miami Marlins: 77.5
Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Opening Line: 78.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 79.5
BetMGM Public Betting: Under 90% (Ticket), Under 84% (Handle)
Best Bet: Over
This might be the toughest win total to pick, so no one will fault whichever way you lean. The amount of talent is just too much for me to look away from and I think 80 wins is right on the money.
Milwaukee Brewers: 76.5
Benny Sieu-USA TODAY
Opening Line: 78.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 79.3
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 87% (Ticket), Over 86% (Handle)
Best Bet: Over
The Brewers won’t win the division this year, but they are better than 76 wins for sure — even if their pitching is a bit suspect to start the year.
Minnesota Twins: 86.5
Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Opening Line: 85.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 89.1
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 88% (Ticket), Over 98% (Handle)
Best Bet: Under
This team is probably going to win the American League Central pretty easily as long as the Tigers and Guardians don’t seriously outperform expectations. But the Twins hardly need more than 85 wins to get it done.
New York Mets: 81.5
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Opening Line: 82.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 83.5
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 59% (Ticket), Over 65% (Handle)
Best Bet: Over
The Mets’ have a playoff-caliber lineup, but are probably and arm or two away from becoming a true threat in the NL East. As long as they don’t fall apart early, this team should be able to add the pieces it needs to hit the over here.
New York Yankees: 91.5
Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
Opening Line: 93.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 92.3
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 76% (Ticket), Under 59% (Handle)
Best Bet: Over
Yep. The Death Star is fully operational… Again.
Oakland Athletics: 57.5
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Opening Line: 56.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 64.8
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 82% (Ticket), Over 92% (Handle)
Best Bet: Under
This team lost 112 games last year and the only thing notably new about it is another Las Vegas ballpark design that won’t come to fruition.
Philadelphia Phillies: 89.5
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
Opening Line: 89.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 84.5
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 77% (Ticket), Over 64% (Handle)
Best Bet: Over
Anything under 90 wins likely keeps the Phillies out of the playoffs and this is still very much a playoff team.
Pittsburgh Pirates: 75.5
Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports
Opening Line: 72.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 71.3
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 89% (Ticket), Over 95% (Handle)
Best Bet: Under
The Pirates began the 2023 season going 20-9 across March/April. They didn’t play better than .500 in any month after until going 15-13 in September. I’m not betting on another blazing fast start again.
San Diego Padres: 83.5
Rick Scuteri-USA TODAY Sports
Opening Line: 81.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 81.6
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 80% (Ticket), Over 95% (Handle)
Best Bet: Over
The arrival of Dylan Cease makes this starting rotation legitimately scary. That the Padres lineup is even scarier is what makes the over and easy bet.
San Francisco Giants: 83.5
Neville E. Guard-USA TODAY Sports
Opening Line: 81.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 85.6
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 89% (Ticket), Over 82% (Handle)
Best Bet: Under
Logan Webb has pitched 21.1 innings this spring. He has allowed 26 earned runs. Sure, these are practice games, but oof.
Seattle Mariners: 86.5
Joe Nicholson
Opening Line: 86.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 83.9
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 86% (Ticket), Over 97% (Handle)
Best Bet: Under
It just doesn’t seem like the Mariners are going to be able to keep pace with the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros. That makes me worry about Seattle selling at the deadline and killing this over before it even has a chance.
St. Louis Cardinals: 84.5
Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Opening Line: 85.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 84.2
BetMGM Public Betting: Under 84% (Ticket), Under 83% (Handle)
Best Bet: Under
How soon will the Cardinals start selling if they get off to another slow start? Paul Goldschmidt should be a nice upgrade for a contender.
Tampa Bay Rays: 85.5
Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Opening Line: 83.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 87.0
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 59% (Ticket), Over 56% (Handle)
Best Bet: Over
Why would you bet on the Rays to do anything but exceed expectations? They do it every single year.
Texas Rangers: 88.5
Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports
Opening Line: 89.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 85.9
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 53% (Ticket), Under 86% (Handle)
Best Bet: Under
It doesn’t matter if the reigning World Series champs are dominant all season, just as long as they get everyone healthy for another postseason run. In the meantime, we get to watch Wyatt Langford learn how to destroy Major League pitching.
Toronto Blue Jays: 85.5
John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY
Opening Line: 86.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 88.1
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 51% (Ticket), Under 64%
Best Bet: Over
The pitching concerns me, but this offense is too talented to bet against. At least in the regular season.
Washington Nationals: 66.5
Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Opening Line: 65.5
PECOTA Wins Projection: 58.1
BetMGM Public Betting: Over 64% (Ticket), Over 61% (Handle)
Best Bet: Under
Maybe Joey Menses will start mashing home runs again and Josiah Gray starts to reach his potential.
