Erdogan Seeks to Regain Istanbul and Vanquish His Nemesis

Beril Akman and Ugur Yilmaz
·4 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- When Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s party lost power in Istanbul, it was a landmark victory for an opposition whose ultimate goal was to oust the Turkish president. Five years later, an emboldened Erdogan is seeking to avenge that defeat and regain control of the country’s economic dynamo.

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Municipal voting across the country on Sunday comes after Erdogan extended his 20-year rule in a presidential election last May. In a tight race in Turkey’s biggest city, incumbent Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, 53, from the Republican People’s Party is aiming to hold off a challenge from Erdogan’s handpicked candidate and former environment minister, Murat Kurum, 47.

The vote is seen as a broader battle between Turkey’s two most prominent political adversaries. At stake is control of a city of almost 16 million people with a $6.6 billion annual budget and whose social aid payments are critical to voters during Turkey’s cost-of-living crisis.

If he retains power, Imamoglu will cement his status as Erdogan’s chief opponent, having defeated the AK Party’s candidate in 2019. That loss was deeply personal for Erdogan, whose own political career was turbocharged during his time as Istanbul mayor in the 1990s.

Winning back Istanbul “is critical for Erdogan’s plan to extend his grip on power and, simultaneously, to sideline his main political nemesis,” said Wolfango Piccoli, the co-president of consulting firm Teneo. Victory would also allow the president and his party to regain control of the financial resources that are key to sustaining their network of support, he said.

The biggest hurdle might be resentment over soaring inflation, and voter apathy. In one of his biggest election rallies over the weekend, Erdogan drew attention to a dwindling crowd in Istanbul. “We are used to 1.5 million people here, but today there are 650,000 people,” he said.

A conservative Islamist group called the New Welfare Party, which until now had been allied to AKP, is also vying to gain momentum by luring jaded Erdogan supporters bearing the brunt of an economy scarred by a 67% inflation rate, among the highest in the world.

Last May, Erdogan won a third term in Turkey’s presidential election. But he lost votes in Istanbul and the capital, Ankara, where the economic damage is most apparent. Living costs in Istanbul rose 81% annually in February with a four-member family’s average expenses three times the minimum wage, according to the Istanbul municipality’s planning agency, IPA.

Take 25-year-old Alparslan, who comes from a long line of Erdogan supporters. He’s turned against the president since the May vote because price increases are eating into his livelihood and dream of getting married like his brother.

Instead, Alparslan will vote for the New Welfare Party. “I’m protesting Erdogan,” he said, declining to be identified by his full name when discussing politics. “Only foreigners can enjoy living in this city.”

The “ease” felt before the May vote is no longer present, and voters are turning to alternatives, said Can Selcuki, an economist and public opinion researcher.

In the runup to the presidential election, Erdogan prioritized economic growth over inflation with the loyal central bank cutting interest rates while much of the rest of the world was raising them. The era of cheap money then abruptly ended.

The central bank has lifted the benchmark interest rate by over 40 percentage points to 50% since Erdogan’s reelection. Budget giveaways have also been less generous as Finance Minister Mehmet Simsek, a Wall Street veteran, tries to fix the country’s finances and lure back foreign investors.

“People are hungry, hungry,” said Ismail Sari, 58, complaining about the cost of meals. “We are facing price hikes every day. Markets are continuously changing price tags.” Though Sari has voted for Erdogan, he isn’t sure now. “The AK Party hasn’t yet convinced me,” he said.

Even if Imamoglu wins, he has another battle to fight. The mayor is accused of insulting members of the Supreme Election Council, which didn’t recognize his initial victory in 2019. The council at the time ordered a repeat vote that Imamoglu again won, ending the AK Party’s quarter-century rule over the city. Imamoglu denies the allegations.

And for some staunch Erdogan supporters, the economy was worse before he came to power in 2002. Fatma Inci, who is in her early 60s, said she remembers having to line up to buy bread.

Fatma and her four female friends all chanted “Reis!” when asked about their political preferences, a nickname meaning “captain” adopted by some Erdogan’s supporters. “In Istanbul, we say Kurum,” Fatma said.

--With assistance from Selcan Hacaoglu and Tugce Ozsoy.

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