Celtics vs Hawks Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Boston Continues to Roll Over Its Competition

The Boston Celtics and Atlanta Hawks played a memorable six-game playoff series last April, and it seemed that both team's fortunes were on an upward trajectory. But while the Celtics have emerged from that postseason bigger and better than ever, the Hawks are verging on a team-building existential crisis. 

Atlanta has disappointed for a few straight years now, and neither the star trade for Dejounte Murray nor a new coach in Quin Snyder has set them to rights. Now Trae Young is out indefinitely, and the future of this core is in doubt.

While the Celtics' position at the top of the postseason heap is all but guaranteed, I don’t expect them to take pity on their former playoff foil on Monday, March 25.

My NBA picks and predictions for Celtics vs. Hawks believe that the NBA odds are once again underestimating Boston’s historic level of dominance.

Celtics vs Hawks odds

Celtics vs Hawks predictions

Even by their lofty standards, the Boston Celtics have been crushing teams lately. Not only are they 9-1 straight up in their last 10, but they’re an impressive 8-2 against the spread. They have not hit a mid-season malaise nor let their foot off the gas one iota even though they have the No. 1 overall seed all but wrapped up with a little over 10 games left in the regular season.

The Atlanta Hawks find themselves on the opposite end of the ledger with a 31-39 record and without the services of Trae Young for the foreseeable future.

The Hawks’ point differential over the past two weeks is just -0.6, which is admirable given their injury report. It’s also why the Hawks aren’t more like 14.5-point dogs against the Celtics tonight.

But that point differential is deceptive. It’s inflated by one giant blowout victory over the slightly more inept Charlotte Hornets, but Atlanta also has losses to the Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz in that span.

Boston is 13-2 straight up, with a point differential of +18.4 in its last 15 games. Over that same time, the Celtics are outperforming the spread by an average of 8.4 points per game, making them easily the most profitable ATS team in that time.

Despite being the NBA’s best team, with the best record, and thus the most unfavorable odds, the Celtics have outperformed expectations by more than anyone. They have consistently demonstrated their quality but oddsmakers continue to underestimate them.

While neither of the two games these teams played already this season finished with a final disparity larger than 10 points, Trae and Jalen Johnson were key reasons the final scores remained even halfway respectable. 

The Hawks will miss Johnson on the wing badly in this matchup against the Celtics' star duo of Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum. Trae, for his part, had a successful postseason run against Boston last April and a Dejounte Murray offense is not going to be enough to keep this in striking distance.

The Celtics have won 36 games by 10 points or more this season. They’re also 26-1 straight up against sub-.500 teams. This is a team that takes care of business more consistently than any other, and that will be the case again today.

My best bet: Celtics -11.5 (-110 at Betway)

Celtics vs Hawks same-game parlay

Celtics -12

Celtics team total Over 118.5

Jaylen Brown Over 22.5 points

+340 at DraftKings

Brown missed Saturday’s game against the Chicago Bulls due to an ankle injury, which is no doubt why his points prop is exceedingly low tonight. 

But the Celtics are also likely playing it conservatively with injuries given their place in the standings. The last several times a Celtics player has returned following an injury absence, they have not seemed limited in any real fashion. If Brown does indeed play, I expect him to be close to his usual form.

And that form of late has been outstanding. Brown has averaged 29.6 points over his last 10 games on some of the most efficient shooting of his career. 

The other concern is that this becomes a blowout before Brown can hit this number, but Jaylen does most of his damage early before even the most aggressive coach would consider pulling his starters. That insulates Brown somewhat from low-scoring games even when they become non-competitive early.

I also expect a strong offensive outing from Boston as a whole.

The Hawks defense has ranked 25th in the NBA over the past two weeks, and many of those games came against some of the Association’s worst offenses. The Celtics have posted a 131.8 offensive rating that span, far and away the best mark in the NBA, and eight points better per 100 than their already season-long mark.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Celtics vs Hawks spread and Over/Under analysis

While at least one sportsbook opened with the Celtics at -10.5, most had them at -11.5 and many books have moved to as high as -12.5 at the time of writing.

The Hawks were having a down season even before they became ravaged by injuries, but now they’re barely a shadow of even that limited team. They’ve been abysmal in their attempts to defend home court as well, going just 12-22 ATS at home this season — only the 13-win Washington Wizards are worse. 

Monday’s total opened between 226.5 and 227.5, and that’s dropped at most sportsbooks to 225.5. That seems a touch low to me given the Celtics' offensive threats, but there is real reason to be skeptical of Atlanta’s offense.

The Hawks have cobbled together a Top-10 offense over the past two weeks, but they failed to score 100 points against the Memphis Grizzlies and had barely more against the Trail Blazers. Their true level could be exposed against the Celtics.

Boston is the league’s third-best defense, though it could be a bit worse than usual given that Jrue Holiday is out and Derrick White is questionable.

Celtics vs Hawks betting trend to know

The Celtics are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Hawks.

Celtics vs Hawks game info

Celtics vs Hawks latest injuries

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