Mets’ top prospect with sneaky odds to make 2024 Opening Day roster

Scott ended the 2023 as the 12th-best prospect in New York’s system. A year later, the right-hander has  Scott has vaulted himself all the way up to the fifth-best prospect the Mets have, via MLB Pipeline.

It’s easy to see why as Scott has torn up the minor leagues since he’s gotten there. Scott has made 55 starts across three minor league seasons, appearing in 149.1 innings. He has posted a robust 3.31 ERA, a 1.085 WHIP, an 11.1 strikeout per nine innings ratio, and a 5.29 strikeout per walk ratio. Those are all elite numbers.

The Mets could really use pitching like that. Last year’s group, especially their starters, did not live up to the billing. A drop-off was to be expected when losing a player like Jacob deGrom in free agency, but the Mets did also bring in Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. They had hopes to be among the best pitching staffs in the majors in 2023.

That just didn’t happen. The Mets ended up finishing the season 19th in the MLB in ERA at 4.31 and 21st in WHIP at 1.36. New York was also below average in strikeouts on the year (16th with 1,388 of them) and walks allowed (the sixth-most allowed at 595).

The one saving grace was that the Mets did finish tied with the Atlanta Braves for the sixth-most quality starts on the season with 60 of them, but that doesn’t exactly mean that their group of starting pitchers excelled. Of the starting pitchers who ended the 2023 season on the Mets’ roster, only one of them pitched at least 50 innings and ended the season with an ERA below three.

That would be Kodai Senga, the rookie New York signed from Japan. There was only one other starting pitcher with those same qualifications who finished the 2023 season with an ERA below *four.* That would be Jose Quintana, who the Mets signed in the middle of the season.

It was the same story with WHIP. Adding the same qualifiers above, Senga was the only Mets’ starting pitcher to finish with a WHIP below 1.25. Senga was really the only saving grace the Mets’ starting rotation had. His 4.5 WAR was awesome which led the team. He also led the Mets in strikeouts (202), strikeouts per nine innings (10.9), and pitches per start (96.4).

Senga was pretty far ahead of everyone else in all of those categories too. Only David Peterson really came close in strikeouts per nine innings (10.4). However, his WHIP (1.57) and ERA (5.03) don’t exactly suggest he’s super close to Senga’s quality as a pitcher yet.

To be fair to the Mets, they did try to add some help to their rotation in the offseason. They were in on many starting pitchers, including another Japanese phenom in Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Unfortunately for them, Yamamoto ended up signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers, leaving New York to settle with Luis Severino and Sean Manaea.

Those are worthwhile gambles for the Mets to take, but neither player was particularly impressive in 2023. Manaea ended the year with a 4.44 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He hasn’t had a season in his career below a 3.6 ERA since 2018.

Severino just had his worst season as a pro in 2023. He ended that season with a ghastly 6.65 ERA and a 1.65 WHIP. Severino is the better gamble of the two the Mets took though since he has had very productive seasons in recent memory. Last year was only the second of his career that he’s had an ERA above 3.4. In 2022, Severino finished with a 3.18 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP.

Perhaps he can return to form, but the Mets are going to need more than just Kodai Sengai and a refurbished Severino in their rotation to compete in the NL East. That’s where Christian Scott can come in. If he continues to shine in Spring Training, he could very well snatch himself a spot on the Mets’ opening day roster with the holes they have in their rotation.