Whoever emerges from Tuesday’s Republican primary in Ohio, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is in for a tough race in a state that former President Donald Trump twice carried by 8 points. But like Montana Sen. Jon Tester, the other Democrat running in a Trump state this year, he’s done it before.
Republicans need to flip just one or two seats – depending on who wins the White House – to control the Senate, and they’ve already effectively picked up one, assuming West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin follows through on his announcement not to run for reelection.
Key context: The early money laid down in Ohio shows just how competitive both parties are expecting it to be. Senate Majority PAC, the super PAC tied to Democratic leadership, has reserved $65 million for TV ads – by far the most of any of the seven states where it made early reservations. On the Republican side, Senate Leadership Fund and an affiliated group have booked about $80 million.
Campaign resources will also be incredibly important in this race, especially since candidates receive more favorable advertising rates than outside groups.
- Brown raised nearly $5.7 million in the first two months of this year, ending the pre-primary reporting period with $13.5 million in the bank – far more than any of his would-be GOP challengers.
- State Sen. Matt Dolan and businessman Bernie Moreno, however, have both loaned their campaigns millions of dollars, and there’s likely more where that came from.
