China tried to influence Taiwan's election. Will the US be next?
China operates disinformation networks worldwide. Authorities in the U.S. are on alert due to the imminent presidential election. The first examples of this propaganda have already emerged.
Taiwan was just a few days away from its presidential election when something strange happened. Clips emerged on YouTube accusing Taiwan's outgoing president, Tsai Ing-wen, of corruption and a debauched sex life. Many times over. Tsai belongs to the Democratic Progressive Party – the party that China's government detests.
It comes as no surprise that China's communist government is trying to manipulate elections in Taiwan in its favor. China lays claim to the island, after all. But could China also be trying to infiltrate the U.S. presidential election in November with false information? Observers fear that this is the case. China has an interest in weakening its main rival – and manipulation campaigns could be part of their approach.
Chinese network already active in the U.S.
The first examples have already emerged. An account on X proclaims the «collapse of American democracy» and predicts «endless partisan bickering and fear.» The account shares a kind of movie poster created with artificial intelligence: Trump and Biden are enthroned above a crumbling, gloomy Capitol. The Institute for Strategic Dialogue attributes the post to a campaign network from China.
The network, called Spamouflage or Dragonbridge by researchers, consists of profiles and channels on social platforms where campaign content is shared. It is active on over 50 platforms, including major social media services such as Facebook, Tiktok, X and YouTube, as well as forums such as Medium, Reddit and Quora. Google counts Spamouflage among the most active players in the field of manipulation campaigns. The network is said to have links to the Chinese police, and to coordinate with other authorities such as the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Silicon Valley platforms are repeatedly taking action against the network. At the end of August 2023, Facebook blocked more than 7,700 Spamouflage accounts. In 2022, Google discovered and removed 50,000 accounts from the disinformation network on its services. However, Spamouflage is like Hydra: if you cut off one of its heads, two grow back.
The Chinese player Spamouflage was presumably also behind the political smear campaign against outgoing Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen and her DPP (Democratic Progressive Party) in January, writes the Australian think tank ASPI. Some of the videos are said to have been created with the help of artificial intelligence.
Increase in disinformation during the coronavirus pandemic
China has been increasingly spreading false information in recent years. Mareike Ohlberg sees 2019 as the starting point for the current social media offensive. Ohlberg has been involved with China's information operations for years and currently works at the German Marshall Fund, a U.S. think tank.
Hundreds of thousands demonstrated against the government in Hong Kong in 2019, while China set up an information system to systematically discredit demonstrators and their concerns. At the time, Ohlberg observed how Chinese players, for example China's embassies abroad, were opening multiple accounts on Twitter and Facebook. According to Ohlberg, some of them also spread disinformation.
The beginnings of Spamouflage can also be traced back to this time. The analysis company Graphika observed that accounts on the network spread political messages for the first time in April 2019, namely criticism of the protests in Hong Kong.
When the coronavirus pandemic broke out at the beginning of 2020, Chinese networks took up the issue. They countered accusations against China for its handling of the virus. The fact that the virus originated in China was disputed. Even the spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Zhao Lijian, spread the rumor that the coronavirus originated in a laboratory in the U.S..
At that time, a researcher from the University of Bern named Wilson Edwards also criticized the pressure exerted by the U.S. on WHO researchers to blame the origin of the virus on China. Edwards's statement on Facebook was shared by hundreds of social media accounts in China and picked up by all major media outlets in the country. Until the Swiss embassy in Beijing spoke out and made it clear: There is no researcher by that name in Switzerland.
The social media persona Wilson Edwards was fake and originated from China. This was explained by Facebook in a detailed report, and there were direct links to the Chinese government. Within an hour of the persona's first post, Chinese party officials had already shared it.
The way China is increasingly spreading anti-Western and especially anti-American content is reminiscent of Russia's information campaigns. Existing social conflicts are taken up and intensified on social platforms. It is about fundamentally undermining trust in the democratic system.
Private companies work for the Chinese state
Thousands of private IT security companies and troll factories in China spread disinformation for the state, and compete with each other for lucrative contracts from the Chinese government.
One such company is I-Soon from Shanghai. In mid-February, experts suspect that employees of the company had published hundreds of internal documents. They show exactly what such companies do and how much money their services cost: from $1,400 for a small job to $800,000 for a large one. The documents also show who the client is: the Ministry of Public Security in Beijing.
I-Soon has apparently spied on foreign governments, using cyber attacks in particular. However, the company has also developed software that is used for disinformation campaigns on X. The software, which costs $55,000 per license, is designed to monitor and control discussions on X.
Another company in this business is Haimai from Shenzhen. According to the Canadian research institute Citizen Lab, the PR company is behind a global network of websites called Paperwall. The websites pose as local news platforms, for example from Italy, France, South Korea or Japan. The operators use clever methods to establish their credibility: they place false information and articles from Chinese state media between genuine articles copied from local media.
Beijing organizes jubilant protests
Chinese disinformation campaigns are also taking place on the streets, and the country's embassies abroad use public protest specifically for their own purposes. They pay individuals to demonstrate for pro-Beijing issues.
Journalists have revealed that unsuspecting young people were paid to hold up «Free Meng Wanzhou» posters at the trial of the daughter of Huawei founder Meng Wanzhou in Vancouver. Even when Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen met the then Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives in California, Beijing is said to have paid people to disrupt the meeting – images and footage of the staged protests were then shared on social media. Beijing fabricates events in order to be able to report on them.
The practice of orchestrated cheering is common during visits by high-ranking party cadres abroad and during state visits by party and state leader Xi Jinping. Exiled Chinese wave the Chinese flag for a fee, clap and cheer. According to the NZZ, such cheering also took place during Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang's visit to Switzerland in January. Photos were later shared on the Chinese internet and by state media, to great effect.
U.S. closely monitoring activities
In the U.S., there are now fears that China could also influence the presidential elections in November. U.S. intelligence services have warned that senior Chinese party leaders have been issuing instructions to exert greater influence on politics and public opinion in the U.S. since 2020.
Before the mid-term elections in November 2022, there were already Chinese influence operations, including some orchestrated by Spamouflage. The intention was obviously to divide society, and the content concerned controversial issues in American politics. There were also efforts to portray the political system and the democratic process in a bad light.
It is unclear how successful Chinese players are in their attempts to distort public opinion and debate. Posts from fake accounts usually trigger few reactions. However, the situation is different with Chinese state media. Some of them are actively involved in the campaigns and have a wide reach.
«If the networks manage to tap into existing sentiments, they are pretty successful,» explains Ohlberg. Fake accounts can also be used to discredit individuals with the aim of driving them out of the public debate, she says. «That is fundamentally bad for a democracy.»
There are initial signs that China is interfering in the upcoming presidential elections. However, Ohlberg doesn't expect Chinese activity to intensify, or that China will clearly take sides with either Trump or Biden. She says: «If it does, then it's more about discrediting democracy itself.»
American intelligence services are less optimistic. «The People's Republic of China could attempt to influence the 2024 U.S. elections to some extent,» said the national threat report published by U.S. intelligence services in mid-March. China could be trying to eliminate critics and increase social tensions in the U.S.. Even if Beijing keeps these activities limited, according to intelligence services, there is a risk of actions by individuals who believe they are acting in China's interests.
According to its own statements, the U.S. is at least prepared for the possibility of foreign states exerting influence. As recently as 2016, Russia launched large-scale and costly operations against the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. This shouldn’t be possible again. «It will be the most secure election we've had so far,» Paul Nakasone, head of the United States Cyber Command, told reporters at a recent roundtable. He probably also wants to reassure voters.
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