Only sixteen teams remain in the 2024 NCAA Tournament, and the Sweet Sixteen is chock-full of intriguing matchups between an unusual number of Power 6 powerhouses at this stage of the tournament. What should you be looking for on Thursday and Friday nights, and who should you be backing in each of the eight matchups? I've got the answers for ya!

East Region 

5. San Diego State vs. 1. Connecticut 

One Interesting Tidbit: Last year the Aztecs and Huskies faced off in the National Championship Game, a game that UConn won by the final score of 76-59, their sixth consecutive tournament win by double-digits. Now, less than one year later, San Diego State and Connecticut play again, this time in the Sweet Sixteen, which will mark the fourth time in NCAA Tournament history that we've seen a rematch of the previous year's championship game.

Interestingly, after Duke Blue Devils defeating the defending champion UNLV Runnin' Rebels in the 1991 Final Four, Duke would go on to win back-to-back titles themselves, so no matter what way you slice it, the winner of this championship game rematch would go on to win consecutive National Titles.

How San Diego State can win: There's not a whole lot to look at, in terms of tendencies or trends in Connecticut losses, since there are only three of them to look at. One key that I identified earlier in the year: if you can disrupt Cam Spencer, you've got a shot.

“Cam Spencer in three UConn losses – 99 minutes, 7-for-27 field goals, 2-for-14 from 3-point range, 1-for-3 free throws, 17 points, 10 rebounds, 7 assists.”

As I went on to explain, this is by no means meant to be a slight against Cam Spencer or an assertion that he's somehow the Huskies weak link. Even though it's his first year in Storrs, the team and the Huskies fans seem to feed off of Spencers's energy. If he's got it going, you might as well just start warming up the bus.

How Connecticut can win: Don't take your foot off the gas. Near the end of the Huskies 2nd round win over Northwestern, they did, and it allowed the Wildcats, for the briefest of moments, to feel like they could climb back in the game. At some point, UConn won't be able to flip the switch on and off as they have a number of times this season. Whether that's against San Diego State remains to be seen, but there's no reason to find out if you're Dan Hurley.

The Prediction: Connecticut 74, San Diego State 63

 

3. Illinois vs. 2. Iowa State 

One Interesting Tidbit: One statistical achievement near and dear to my heart — because I had six of 'em while playing high school basketball — is the triple-double, and if you're expecting to see one in the Sweet Sixteen, this is probably the game it'll happen in. Three different players playing in Thursday night's clash between the Illini and Cyclones — Illinois Marcus Domask, and Iowa State's Tamin Lipsey and Keshon Gilbert — have recorded a triple-double this year.

How Illinois can win: Sorry for the lack of X's and O's here, but this one feels pretty straight forward to me… If Terrence Shannon Jr. can clearly establish himself as the best player on the floor, Illinois could advance to the Elite Eight for the first time since 2005, when they lost in the National Championship Game to North Carolina. We've seen Shannon go supernova this year already, and he is in the midst of his best stretch of play this year. Since the start of the Big Ten Tournament, Shannon is averaging 31.6 points per game on 53-42-88 shooting splits. Iowa State's defense represents the biggest test he's faced so far this year, but how's this for a stat: Terrence Shannon Jr., formerly a Texas Tech Red Raider, is 6-0 in his career against Iowa State.

How Iowa State can win: Iowa State is going to want to grind this one to a halt, bottle up Terrence Shannon Jr. in the half court, and keep this game played in the 50s or 60s as opposed to the 70s or 80s, because the Cyclones are just 4-6 in games where their opponents scored at least 70 points. Illinois plays at a much faster pace than the Cyclones. They'll look to run on defensive rebounds, and they rebound the hell out of the ball on the offensive glass. Iowa State needs to work for good shots offensive, get back on defense, and avoid letting the Illini get anything too easy.

The Prediction: Iowa State 72, Illinois 70

 

West Region 

4. Alabama vs. 1. North Carolina 

One Interesting Tidbit: The last time Alabama and North Carolina played each other, they played a game and a half in one. That's a lot of free basketball. In the 2022 Phil Knight Invitational, the Tide and Tar Heels went into not one, not two, (now I'm starting to feel like LeBron James), not three, but four overtimes. Alabama hung on to win 103-101.

How Alabama can win: I'll hand this one off to Blake Byler of Bama Central, who seems to have a pretty good grasp on what gives the Crimson Tide a chance to upset the Tar Heels.

How North Carolina can win: For Carolina, it's all about dictating the pace of the game. Nate Oats' squad wants to play at a breakneck pace and launch a high number of three-pointers. If you're Hubert Davis' squad, you can't let Bama speed you up, and you can't afford to get into a three-point shooting contest with a team that takes (Bama is 4th in three-point attempts per game, Carolina is 157th) and makes (Bama is 32nd in three-point percentage, Carolina is 82nd) so many more three's.

The Prediction: North Carolina 86, Alabama 80

 

6. Clemson vs. 2. Arizona 

One Interesting Tidbit: Before transferring to Arizona, reigning Pac-12 Player of the Year Caleb Love played three seasons for the North Carolina Tar Heels, who played on game each season versus Clemson in ACC conference play. In those three games, Love struggled from the field, hitting only 13 of 34 field goal attempts. Will that continue now that Love is wearing an Arizona uniform?

How Clemson can win: 1st-Team All-ACC big man PJ Hall has fouled out seven times this season, and he's been limited to only 19 minutes of action in each of Clemson's first two tournament games due to foul trouble. The Tigers have been able to withstand his absences against New Mexico and Baylor, but they'll need him to stay on the court and contend with Oumar Ballo. If Hall can avoid foul trouble in the Sweet Sixteen, the ceiling of Clemson's defense is exponentially higher. Clemson held a number of tournament-caliber opponents (Alabama, TCU, North Carolina, Baylor) to well under their season scoring averages already this season, but they've also dropped games to non-tournament teams like Memphis, Georgia Tech, Miami and Notre Dame.

Needless to say, I continue to be flummoxed by Clemson, even as they've made a run to the Sweet Sixteen.

How Arizona can win: Well, Caleb Love finding his scoring touch against Clemson would be a great start for Arizona, but it feels like this game might be more about Arizona's defense than their offense. What version of Arizona are we getting? The version that held Alabama to 74 points back on December 20th, or the version that gave up 100 points to Stanford on December 31st? A normally stingy Wildcats defense gave up 83+ points in four of their eight losses this year.

The Prediction: Arizona 75, Clemson 65

 

South Region 

4. Duke vs. 1. Houston 

One Interesting Tidbit: Though Kelvin Sampson has never coached against the Duke Blue Devils in the NCAA Tournament, he does have a little bit of experience losing to an ACC opponent in the Sweet Sixteen. And you don't need to go back to his days coaching at Oklahoma or Indiana to find that loss. Just last year, the top-seeded Cougars were stunned in the Sweet Sixteen by 5-seed Miami.

How Duke can win: Hit three's at the rate they did against James Madison, and it doesn't just have to be Jared McCain, who hit eight, a Duke tournament record. Houston has held opponents to just 29 percent from three-point range this year. Though Duke shot 38 percent from deep this year (12th in the country), they were only 169th in the country in attempts. But in round two against James Madison, Duke took 28 three's, up from their average of 22 per game on the season. If you're hitting 50 percent of your 28 three-point attempts, you can beat anybody.

How Houston can win: Do what they do to nearly every opponent they've faced this year… overwhelm them with physical, high-energy defense. Most prognosticators seem to believe this is the big edge the Cougars will have against the Blue Devils, and if they do, Duke's chances are slim. Duke was physically overmatched in both of their meetings with North Carolina this year, and their exit in the tournament last year against Tennessee was predominantly because the Vols were the more physical team.

What almost bit Houston in the 2nd round were 26 Texas A&M offensive rebounds. The Aggies shot under 34 percent from deep and only 38 percent from the field, but scored 26 second chance points on those 26 offensive rebounds. As a result, Houston gave up over 90 points for the first time since 2017. The difference here is Texas A&M was #1 in the country in offensive rebounds per game, and Duke is 149th.

The Prediction: Houston 70, Duke 62

 

11. NC State vs. 2. Marquette

One Interesting Tidbit: In some ways, Marquette had the perfect round two opponent to prepare for NC State in the Sweet Sixteen. Not only does Colorado have a big-bodied center (Eddie Lampkin Jr.) who can be tough to deal with in a similar mold as DJ Burns Jr., but the Wolfpack, according to Andrei Greska of The Athletic, allow .911 points per possession on pick-and-rolls, which is tied with Colorado for 264th in the country. So what Colorado was doing defensively gave Marquette a good look of what to expect in the Sweet Sixteen.

How NC State can win: If DJ Burns Jr. continues to make all the right reads in the post, the Wolfpack could pull yet another upset, but that won't be easy to do against Shaka Smart's Golden Eagles, who double on post touches more than almost any team in the country and feast on havoc defensively. NC State is averaging 18 post-up possessions per game since the start of the ACC Tournament — the most in the country. If the Wolfpack can generate good looks on those Burns Jr. post touches and continue to avoid turning the ball over, they have a shot.

How Marquette can win: Marquette has too much firepower for NC State to handle unless they're gifting the Wolfpack second-chance opportunities or additional possessions. So for Marquette, it's pretty simple — take care of the ball, and keep the Wolfpack off the offensive glass. The crowd in Dallas will obviously be pro-Houston, but any members of an otherwise impartial crowd will be rooting for the Cinderella story to keep rolling on. You've gotta keep the crowd AND NC State out of it right from the jump.

The Prediction: Marquette 80, NC State 68

 

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Midwest Region 

5. Gonzaga vs. 1. Purdue 

One Interesting Tidbit: This is the only Sweet Sixteen matchup that is a rematch of a game played earlier in the season. When Gonzaga and Purdue hooked up in the opening round of the Maui Invitational, Purdue overcame a 9-point 1st half deficit to win 73-63.

How Gonzaga can win: Each of the last two years, the Zags and Boilermakers have played each other, and in both matchups, it's fair to say that Gonzaga did a reasonable job of containing Zach Edey — 24 points, 10.5 rebounds, 3 blocks per game. Those numbers are on par with Edey's regular season averages, which proves that no matter what you do, Zach Edey is going to get his. It's a foregone conclusion. So my take is, if you're Mark Few and the Zags, you have to do two things:

  1. Keep your bigs out of foul trouble, even if it means conceding some uncontested dunks and lay-ins from the 7'4″ All-American when he gets inside position. Even a hard foul on a player as large as Edey isn't going to keep him from scoring, and Gonzaga needs to keep Anton Watson, Graham Ike, and Ben Gregg on the floor.
  2. Don't let the rest of the Boilermakers beat you. This is what killed the Utah State Aggies. Yes, Zach Edey went for 23 points and 14 rebounds, but Purdue was getting gashed early on by second-chance opportunities on weak-side rebounds from Trey Kaufman-Renn. Later, they allowed Fletcher Loyer to walk into uncontested jumpers because so much attention was being paid to Edey. As you can tell, there's no easy answer here.

How Purdue can win: If Gonzaga can continue to shoot 50 percent from three-point range — as they have in their first two tournament games — Purdue won't be the only team that struggles to bring down the Zags. And that was the case when these two teams played back in November. In the 1st half of their matchup earlier in the season, Gonzaga hit 6-of-19 three-pointers, and they held a 5 point halftime lead. The 2nd half was a different story. The Zags failed to hit a three on 13 attempts in the 2nd half, and Purdue stormed back. Though, if you ask Gonzaga head coach Mark Few about the loss, he was more concerned about the Zags' 14 turnovers than he was their trey-less 2nd half.

“I think if you look at the 3s we took, they were all good shots. I don’t know that we took any bad ones during that stretch. Obviously, that was a fairly big factor, I thought the bigger factor was that we just turned the ball over too much,” Few said after the game, per the Associated Press. Gonzaga is averaging just 11 turnovers per game in their first two tournament matchups with McNeese State and Kansas. Purdue has to either force turnovers, or keep the Zags from lighting up the scoreboard.

The Prediction: Purdue 80, Gonzaga 72

 

3. Creighton vs. 2. Tennessee

One Interesting Tidbit: This is only the second meeting all-time between Creighton and Tennessee, with the first one coming all the way back in 1937, a barn-burner that the Vols won by the final score of 34-28. Yes, I'm positive this wasn't a football game.

How Creighton can win: “No disrespect to UConn, but I think (Tennessee) is the best defensive team we’ve played this year,” Creighton head coach Greg McDermott said on Monday, per Tom Nimitz of White & Blue Review. “They’re elite at forcing turnovers. They have a lot of length across that front line. And Zakai Zeigler is one of the fastest point guards and most disruptive defensive point guards that we will have seen this year. We’ve had a few foolish turnovers in in both of the games we played in, and now we’re going to see a team that really thrives on turnovers. I think taking care of the basketball against Tennessee is (the biggest key).”

Well said, coach. I couldn't agree more. Theoretically, Creighton has the size to defend Tennessee and leading scorer Dalton Knecht, and they have the talent offensively to score against a really solid Volunteers defense. If Creighton avoids beating themselves, they'll have a good shot to advance to the Elite Eight.

How Tennessee can win: A good place to start would be getting back to shooting over, I don't know, let's just say 30 percent from three-point range. Since the beginning of March, the Vols are under 30 percent on triples (53-for-178), and sure, they were able to survive a dreadful three-point shooting performance against Texas in the Round of 32, but Creighton has way too much fire power for the Vols to be able to withstand a continued prolonged slump from long-range in the Sweet Sixteen.

The Prediction: Creighton 74, Tennessee 71

(Come on, you should know by now I'm not taking Rick Barnes here)