A new Politico Magazine/Ipsos poll suggests that former President Donald Trump may not be “Teflon Don” when it comes to his coming trial in Manhattan alleging he falsified business records to conceal a hush money payment ahead of the 2016 election. According to the survey, a sizable chunk of independents would be less likely to vote for Trump if he were to be convicted in that trial.
The poll, which sampled 1,024 adults March 8-10, found that a plurality of respondents — 44% — said a conviction in the Manhattan trial wouldn’t affect the likelihood that they would support Trump for president. But 32% said it would make them less likely to support him. Meanwhile, 13% (overwhelmingly Republicans) said it would make them more likely to support Trump, and 9% said they didn’t know.
A Trump conviction could alienate some of the coveted independents both parties are desperate to win over in swing states.
Among the critical demographic of independents, the numbers were slightly worse for Trump. While again 44% said they wouldn’t change their support, this time 36% of respondents said they would be less likely to support him, and 9% said they would be more likely to support him. (And again, 9% said they didn’t know.)
The upshot: A Trump conviction could alienate some of the coveted independents both parties are desperate to win over in swing states in what is shaping up to be another tight election.
A key caveat: This survey asks respondents about how a conviction would affect their “support” for Trump, not their likelihood of voting for him. It’s possible that people who were realistically never going to vote for him anyway are indicating that they anticipate even stronger disapproval of Trump as a candidate were he to remain in the race as a convicted criminal. (Remember, many independents lean heavily toward one party.) But still, it’s important. It’s possible that on-the-fence independents could be less likely to vote for a convicted Trump than a non-convicted Trump. And “support” also encompasses other consequential activities, such as donations and activism; a reduction in support could portend dampened enthusiasm among Trump-sympathetic independents, which could also hurt his Election Day chances.
That Trump faces the prospect of eroding support over his Manhattan trial, which could plausibly result in a verdict this summer, is potentially a serious sign of trouble for his political future. When Trump was being slapped with multiple indictments last year, political analysts noted that support for him either was unaffected or might even have increased. The new poll suggests more voters may be affected by the stigma of convictions than charges — which makes intuitive sense given the legal system’s presumption of innocence until proven guilty. There’s also the possibility that Trump’s legal entanglements are more concerning to voters now that he is the presumptive GOP nominee and Election Day is less than a year away.
The road ahead for Trump isn’t looking so smooth, either. The Manhattan trial, which is over an act committed before his 2016 election, is a less politically consequential issue compared to his twin indictments alleging election interference. And the federal election interference case could still plausibly result in conviction before Election Day. I’d venture to guess that a candidate Trump with multiple convictions would be even less appealing to agnostic independents than a candidate Trump with just one conviction.
We’ll need more polls to gauge the effects of the Trump trials. But signs that this could hurt him even at the margins could be a game-changer in a race that could be decided at those same margins.
