MLB Position Player Tiers 2024: How 100 of the game’s best stack up

MLB Position Player Tiers 2024: How 100 of the game’s best stack up

The Athletic MLB Staff
Mar 28, 2024

By Eno Sarris, Brittany Ghiroli and Stephen J. Nesbitt

The Athletic has live coverage of around the league on MLB Opening Day.

It’s time for our third annual MLB Position Player Tiers. These are the top 100 position players in the majors sorted by expected all-around value in 2024 and separated into five tiers, from best in baseball to above-average regulars.

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Our aim was to blend projections, scouting, expert opinion and the eye test to evaluate a player’s full suite of skills: at bat, in the field and on the bases. We sent our initial list to more than 20 baseball people — execs, evaluators, coaches, players and analysts — and asked them to audit our work. Based on their responses, we moved names up and down until settling on the order listed below.

First, some ground rules and guidelines:

The players are in tiers, not individually ranked. Each tier is divided into sub-tiers, and players are listed alphabetically within each. The gap between lettered groups (like 1A and 1B) is smaller than the one between numbered groups (like 1B and 2A).

Players who have yet to play in the majors or are expected to miss at least half the season were ruled ineligible.

Not every above-average position player is included, just the top 100. We trimmed the list from 125, as it had been in years past, because of feedback from those we polled about the volatility of those latter projections.

Charts include 2024 projected stats courtesy Derek Carty’s THE BAT X projection model. 

TIER 1: Best of the Best

TIER 1A

PLAYERTIERTEAMPOSWARHRSBAVGOBPSLG
1A
ATL
OF
7.6
38
52
0.319
0.408
0.593
1A
LAD
SS
6.4
32
13
0.287
0.38
0.531
1A
LAD
1B
5
26
15
0.303
0.386
0.511
1A
NYY
OF
6.2
45
7
0.279
0.399
0.603
1A
NYY
OF
6.2
36
10
0.277
0.415
0.538

The Big Debate: Is Freeman a fit in the tippy-top tier?

For the past two years, we hemmed and hawed about where to put first baseman Freeman, and both times, we left him in Tier 1B — a top-10-ish player. That felt fair. Each time, evaluators felt he belonged higher. “Underrated, if that’s possible,” one said in 2022. “Not many .300/.400/.500 hitters out there,” another scout said in 2023, “and he’s been one for 10 years.”

Well, he’s Tier 1A now.

Freeman hit .331/.410/.567 last season, turning in his second consecutive 7 fWAR season for the Dodgers, and finished third in NL MVP voting. He does not play a premium defensive position, but he plays it well, and he contributes in every offensive category.

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Soto Shuffling to gobs of cash 

Life is pretty good if you’re Soto right now. You’re 25 years old, already a star and just got traded to Yankee Stadium, where everyone thinks you’ll mash. Oh, and you’re months away from free agency that could break records and make you not just rich but generationally rich.

“If he stays healthy, this guy is going to put up an absolutely monster year,” predicted one executive. “That stadium was made for Juan Soto.”

To be fair, many stadiums are, as Soto does an enviable job of going to all fields and putting pitchers through brutally long at-bats. There’s no question where Soto belonged on this chart. The only thing that remains to be seen is how many zeroes will be in his bank account this time next year.

The NL MVP race!

Acuña. Betts. Freeman. The top three 1As on this list — alphabetically — also happen to be the top three NL MVP candidates from 2023, in that same order. Could we be in for another thrilling ride? Is this just the start of Acuña’s domination? We have barely seen any Baseball That Counts, and we’re already excited.

TIER 1B

PLAYERTIERTEAMPOSWARHRSBAVGOBPSLG
1B
HOU
DH
5.5
39
0
0.298
0.396
0.597
1B
ARI
OF
4.6
21
44
0.279
0.358
0.479
1B
LAD
DH
5.1
39
24
0.293
0.392
0.589
1B
SEA
OF
5.3
31
34
0.283
0.350
0.506
1B
SDP
OF
5.9
36
32
0.284
0.361
0.547

The Big Debate: Is Carroll already one of the best of the best?

In our initial tiers list, the one that went out to the expert panel, Carroll was atop Tier 2. He immediately got the most upvotes of any player.

“I’d probably have Corbin Carroll in Tier 1 already,” said a scout. “There’s no reason he can’t provide similar offensive production again, and he’s an excellent corner outfielder.”

Executives and analysts echoed that sentiment. Here’s a player who can impact the game with his eye, his bat, and his legs. For what it’s worth, there’s also a je ne sais quoi aspect that may or may not show up in the final tally of his value: he looks every part the young leader, one who understands the value of camaraderie and being a good teammate — on top of all the things he can do physically.

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Ohtani drops a letter

There has been a lot of debate about Ohtani lately, and, with respect to these tiers, ours definitely isn’t the juiciest. Still, gambling scandal aside, there are legitimate questions about Ohtani’s performance given that he’s coming off season-ending elbow surgery. A year ago, when Ohtani was still pitching every sixth day, those we polled had him among a trio of virtual locks with Juan Soto and Mike Trout as Tier 1A franchise players.

While there’s no question the marketing money and attention on the Dodgers will increase ten-fold after winning the Ohtani offseason sweepstakes, his projected WAR trails teammates Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts. In fact, he’s listed as No. 24 overall on FanGraphs. We won’t put him that low. Sho is still a major show, even if he can’t pitch this year and is currently involved in a Major League Baseball investigation.

Did J-Rod deserve downvotes?

In a surprising twist, ascendant Mariners center fielder Rodríguez got two downvotes, though we kept him in Tier 1.

“It was basically just one hot streak last year,” one respondent said.

It was a hot streak for the ages (.308/.363/.578 in the second half and .429/.474/.724 in August), but his overall work was good enough to make him a top-10 projected player by most systems. (And it’s probably worth noting that both downvotes came from current major-league pitchers.)

go-deeper

GO DEEPER

One bold prediction for every MLB team on Opening Day

TIER 2: MVP caliber

TIER 2A

PLAYERTIERTEAMPOSWARHRSBAVGOBPSLG
2A
PHI
1B
4.1
27
13
0.281
0.387
0.505
2A
BAL
SS
4.6
26
12
0.262
0.339
0.469
2A
NYM
SS
4.4
28
21
0.253
0.330
0.457
2A
CLE
3B
5.1
27
29
0.276
0.352
0.491
2A
TEX
SS
5.6
32
2
0.298
0.372
0.557
2A
PHI
SS
4.2
22
33
0.279
0.332
0.462
2A
KCR
SS
5.5
31
48
0.288
0.337
0.523

The Big Debate: Was Witt hosed?

Witt was originally in Tier 1, but after all our audits, we were persuaded to drop him here, which is still a two-tier climb from last year. Witt seemed to put it all together last season for the Royals. He hit 30 homers, stole 49 bases, led the majors with 11 triples, had a 115 wRC+ and finished seventh in AL MVP voting, then capped that 5.7 fWAR season by signing an extension worth at least $288.7 million over 11 years to keep him in Kansas City for his prime.

But our experts aren’t ready to catapult him into the best-of-the-best stratosphere just yet.

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“Tier 2,” an exec said.

“Tier 2,” a pitcher agreed, “unless it’s fantasy-based. Fifty steals is better for fantasy than real life.”

Slides and snubs

Turner, Lindor and Ramírez all dropped to Tier 2 this year. Lindor is coming off back-to-back 6 fWAR seasons and should be in the MVP conversation again in 2024, but the long-term trend line is clear for shortstops on the other side of 30. One scout stumped for Ramírez to be put back into Tier 1: “He just hits everything and anything, on the barrel, almost all the time.” Two others made the same case for Turner.

“Trea is underrated in my book,” a scout said. “I know Harper gets all the love over there (in Philadelphia), but (Turner) is a top-tier guy for me.”

The question with Turner: How do you evaluate a 30-year-old superstar coming off a bad season? He had an OPS in the .600s until mid-August before turning on the afterburners. He’s still a 30-30 threat and a proven run producer. But we’re tapping the brake on him as a top-10 guy.

Bryce is back

Harper wasn’t included in last year’s tiers because it wasn’t clear how much time he’d miss while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Turns out, very little! Harper returned in May, rediscovered his power midseason and nearly cleared the golden .300/.400/.500 slash line, going .293/.401/.499 with 21 homers and a 142 wRC+.

The Phillies’ first baseman came close to sneaking into Tier 1.

“He came back super early, learned a new position on the fly and still mashed,” a scout said. “I think he’ll return to his 2021 MVP and 2022 before-he-was-hurt form, at least for another year. He’s just 31. He always gets pitched around, and he still strikes fear in pitchers that very few can do.”

TIER 2B

PLAYERTIERTEAMPOSWARHRSBAVGOBPSLG
2B
BOS
3B
4.6
36
4
0.280
0.353
0.527
2B
TOR
1B
4.4
34
6
0.291
0.368
0.527
2B
SDP
3B
3.6
30
8
0.266
0.336
0.480
2B
ATL
1B
4.0
40
2
0.264
0.366
0.530
2B
ATL
3B
5.0
38
2
0.282
0.355
0.539
2B
BAL
C
5.6
18
3
0.272
0.366
0.438
2B
TEX
2B
4.0
28
18
0.264
0.333
0.471
2B
LAA
OF
4.5
35
3
0.268
0.374
0.561
2B
HOU
OF
4.3
29
23
0.282
0.360
0.510

The Big Debate: Is Rutschman the best catcher in baseball?

There was some debate about where to put Rutschman, whose arrival in Baltimore seemed directly correlated with the team’s ascent.

A hitting coach said, “I love me some Adley, but I would move him from (Tier) 2 to 3.” An opposing scout countered that Rutschman is “a 2 that could very easily be a low 1 at the end of the season.”

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With his days as a top prospect behind him, Rutschman prefers to operate under the radar to some extent, preferring a quiet style of leadership. But most of Baltimore’s clubhouse would agree he’s their leader and one of the most important elements of a team that won the AL East last year. Is this the season his national profile goes up another notch?

Happy to be here? 

The line between 2B and 3A is thin, but referring to a player as “MVP caliber” instead of “All-Star” is a leap, so we got a lot of input about players around that cut line.

Take, for example, Guerrero, who we’d initially downgraded to Tier 3. “I know there’s no defensive value,” a scout said, “but I think we forget how good of a hitter he has been and can be and how young he is still. I’m looking for him to be back in that Tier 2 group. He’s showing out this spring.”

For Trout, an obvious Hall of Fame talent, the tumble from the top has been significant and is mostly an indicator of his struggle to stay on the field. “He’s an All-Star, a great mistake masher, but the bat speed is diminishing. He’s a 40-fielder in center field costing his teams runs, and by the way, he’s only played in 51 percent of LA’s games since his massive extension,” said one major-league pitcher.

Added an analyst: “If that was our first look at Trout managing a chronic back condition, I’d be a little scared. Barrel rate dropped a lot relative to the rest of the league, and that was before he broke his hamate. I think he’s in (Tier) 2 if he’s got the availability (to play) and as long as he’s putting up a 180 wRC+ when healthy, but I don’t know if you can count on that anymore.”

The Curious Case of Manny Machado 

Machado will start the season as San Diego’s designated hitter, and there is no set date on when he will return to third base.

The 31-year-old, who has been dogged by pain for years, had elbow surgery in October. The procedure is rare for baseball players, which makes predictions tough and caused a few of our experts to question what to expect from the Padres star, whose projected 4 WAR is a far cry from his 7.5 WAR in 2022. One thing is clear: As Machado goes, the Padres go. But whether it will take a year for Machado to get back to normal — and back to Tier 1 — remains to be seen.

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TIER 3: All-Star

TIER 3A

PLAYERTIERTEAMPOSWARHRSBAVGOBPSLG
3A
ATL
2B
3.3
25
18
0.270
0.326
0.471
3A
NYM
1B
3.0
39
4
0.249
0.339
0.501
3A
HOU
2B
3.6
23
12
0.270
0.347
0.453
3A
TBR
OF
3.3
26
31
0.258
0.345
0.455
3A
TOR
SS
3.4
20
14
0.286
0.329
0.446
3A
SDP
2B
3.3
18
9
0.273
0.341
0.430
3A
HOU
3B
4.7
24
2
0.266
0.364
0.455
3A
MIL
C
4.3
22
3
0.265
0.341
0.447
3A
ATL
OF
3.6
21
26
0.281
0.333
0.466
3A
MIN
3B
3.1
23
16
0.262
0.320
0.461
3A
CHW
OF
2.9
28
20
0.265
0.319
0.481
3A
LAD
C
5.4
22
2
0.273
0.363
0.490

The Big Debate: Should Bregman have gotten those downvotes?

To be in this tier, you should be capable of an All-Star season any year. Bregman hasn’t been an All-Star, as voted by the fans, since 2019. But! He’s put up 4-plus WAR in two straight seasons, and FanGraphs defines four wins as “All-Star level.” Before we debate the meaning of “All-Star,” let’s figure out why our voters turned their thumbs down.

“He’s more of a (Tier) 3 with his injury history,” said a recently retired hitter, and a current hitter agreed.

It’s true that Bregman has missed parts of seasons and also played through injuries that have affected his play, but it’s also true that his production has been All-Star caliber for two years and that he’s played 316 games in those seasons. But perhaps the work has not been MVP-caliber, all things considered. This seems like the right place for him.

How should we rank catchers?

This sub-tier features Smith and Contreras. J.T. Realmuto and Sean Murphy are up next. They literally can’t all be NL All-Stars. Only two catchers have won the MVP since 2000: the modern backstop only plays around two-thirds of the time. Their offensive stats aren’t awesome compared to non-catchers, their upside is capped by their playing time, and their defense often carries them. Add up everything they do, and they’re worth their ranks, but their placement will certainly inspire discussion.

Upside (and questions)

A scout thought Albies was just entering his prime and will “take a step up into the MVP discussion.” A current pitcher agreed. A hitting coach and pitcher argued that Robert should be included in this tier. You could add Lewis to this list off of an amazing finish. The flaws aren’t all the same — for Albies, it’s more about his work against lefties and on-base abilities, for Lewis and Robert it’s health — but these three are probably the most capable of motoring up these tiers if they provide positive answers to those questions.

Notable quotable

An executive suggested Altuve should be “way” lower.

“His defense is getting worse, he’s just slowing down,” the exec said. “There’s that jump in strikeout rate, and the foot speed loss will hurt his base hits and leg doubles.”

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TIER 3B

PLAYERTIERTEAMPOSWARHRSBAVGOBPSLG
3B
MIL
SS
3.5
28
7
0.248
0.325
0.458
3B
TBR
1B
3.5
19
3
0.287
0.376
0.454
3B
CLE
2B
3.1
16
32
0.262
0.325
0.416
3B
CHC
2B
2.5
7
33
0.283
0.339
0.382
3B
SDP
SS
2.8
15
24
0.242
0.321
0.386
3B
ARI
2B
3.7
22
7
0.272
0.351
0.467
3B
ATL
C
4.3
22
0
0.260
0.348
0.479
3B
NYM
OF
3.5
19
6
0.263
0.362
0.432
3B
SEA
C
3.8
26
1
0.222
0.297
0.446
3B
PHI
C
3.6
21
17
0.261
0.326
0.458
3B
CHC
SS
4.0
25
15
0.264
0.334
0.459
3B
NYY
2B
3.7
25
14
0.271
0.337
0.459

The Big Debate: Are there only three true tiers?

An evaluator argued that we should trim this list further than we did this year. His scouting worldview has three tiers — superstar, elite and well-above-average players — while setting to the side a large fourth bucket consisting of solid regulars who over- or under-perform from season to season.

“To be more precise is tough,” the evaluator said. “Players are not robots. In any given season they might move a grade or two from their norm, but usually not three.”

Cody Bellinger is one exception. More often, the range of outcomes for a position player is solid backup, average regular, or above-average regular. Stars fluctuate, too, but they are still plus players. Francisco Lindor is a superstar at his best and still provides significant value when not hitting.

Historically, the evaluator said, each position has about six to eight players who’d fall into his three tiers. Multiply that by nine positions, and you get between 54 and 72 players. If this were his list, he’d cut it off at No. 75.

Helium for Ha-Seong

We originally had Padres shortstop Kim in Tier 4, and multiple people gave us grief for that. An analyst remarked that Kim felt out of place in a tier with “guys who were good but had great years last year” and “tantalizing top-end but not established” guys.

“He is on the same level at least with Willy Adames,” a scout said.

Kim had 8.1 fWAR over the past two seasons; Adames had 8. (Adames, by the way, did get one downvote — “he’s a top starter, but not an All-Star — but we kept him in Tier 3.) Kim struggled as a rookie in 2021, batting .202 with a 71 wRC+. “But he adjusted,” the analyst said, “and he’s been just an elite defender and baserunner with an above-average bat ever since.”

Kim won a Gold Glove in 2023, hitting .260 with a 112 wRC+ and stealing 38 bags.

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Big ups for Big Dumper

Mariners catcher Raleigh, coming off back-to-back 4 fWAR seasons, could be even better in 2024, an evaluator said. Raleigh, 27, has huge power and a deft hand guiding one of the best pitching staffs in baseball.

“He’s entering his prime,” a scout said. “A better hitter than Jason Varitek who can really control and manage a game. I think he breaks out this year.”

TIER 4: Top starter

TIER 4A

PlayerTierTeamPosWARHRSBAVGOBPSLG
4A
STL
3B
2.3
23
4
0.249
0.309
0.422
4A
CHC
OF
2.3
22
19
0.259
0.325
0.451
4A
MIN
OF
2.2
25
11
0.236
0.315
0.484
4A
TEX
OF
2.6
15
18
0.255
0.336
0.421
4A
MIN
SS
3.2
22
0
0.259
0.338
0.442
4A
PIT
SS
2.8
25
26
0.249
0.320
0.455
4A
CIN
SS
2.5
20
39
0.253
0.313
0.433
4A
STL
1B
2.6
26
8
0.262
0.349
0.455
4A
DET
OF
2.3
17
9
0.265
0.340
0.431
4A
TOR
OF
2.2
22
14
0.258
0.333
0.437

The Big Debate: Cruz control 

There’s no question that the Reds’ De La Cruz and Pirates’ Cruz are two of the game’s most electric young talents. But where to put them? Both (de la) Cruzes have less than 100 games of big-league experience, which makes settling on Tier 4 reasonable but rife for conflict.

“It’s hard to argue against moving Oneil Cruz from 4 to 3 right now,” said one expert. Cruz showed improved plate discipline in a small sample last spring before suffering a season-ending leg injury. A hitting coach added, “(In) 2024, he will show growth and have a big season. He has the potential for 30 HRs, at a premium position, with potential for stolen bases as well.”

De La Cruz debuted last season and had 13 homers and 35 steals in just 98 games, but swing-and-miss was a real problem. As one scout pointed out: “He has the talent to be in the top two (tiers) in a year or two, but he’s not even a top starter on his team yet. He is susceptible to chase, he has a lot of holes in the swing and he might be outgrowing shortstop.”

Both arrows are trending up. Assuming Oneil and Elly stay healthy, get ready for a season of can’t-miss plays from two of the most dynamic players in the sport.

“The ceiling on these guys is unreal,” said a big-league hitting coach.

Texas hold ‘em

Where are the Rangers finding these guys? Carter is a terrific success story for the Rangers’ drafting and development and, after a sensational run in the playoffs, he’s not even the newest Rangers star. (That title belongs to Wyatt Langford, drafted just last year.)

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“I love Carter in Tier 3,” a scout said. “You could argue it’s a little aggressive at this stage of his career, but he’s very capable of performing at that type of level right now.”

Belli’s bounce-back

A year ago, Bellinger didn’t appear in our tiers at all. And while his free agency this winter didn’t go as planned, he’ll have all the incentive in the world to prove that he deserved a better deal. Bellinger isn’t projected to post another 4 WAR season for the Cubs this year, but even with some regression, our panel made him a solid Tier 4 pick.

Will it be enough for the 28-year-old to re-test the market next winter?

TIER 4B

PLAYERTIERTEAMPOSWARHRSBAVGOBPSLG
4B
NYM
C
3.4
22
2
0.227
0.306
0.428
4B
MIA
2B
2.5
5
5
0.311
0.364
0.406
4B
SFG
3B
3.8
29
4
0.244
0.333
0.475
4B
SEA
SS
2.7
12
4
0.245
0.340
0.363
4B
TEX
C
3.5
18
2
0.238
0.303
0.418
4B
COL
OF
1.9
22
15
0.262
0.352
0.464
4B
TOR
C
3.3
10
0
0.260
0.340
0.397
4B
ARI
C
1.2
8
5
0.278
0.332
0.397
4B
STL
OF
2.0
16
8
0.256
0.353
0.433
4B
TBR
3B
2.5
21
0
0.237
0.324
0.421
4B
PIT
OF
2.6
21
8
0.271
0.348
0.449
4B
NYY
SS
2.7
18
23
0.238
0.309
0.405
4B
ARI
1B
1.9
28
5
0.254
0.330
0.458

The Big Debate: Should we be writing about Nootbaar again?

Nootbaar got upvoted last year, and he was a sensation coming off the World Baseball Classic. Everything looked like it was lined up for him to break out. He was pretty good: About 20 percent better than league average with the stick, decent defense, some steals, and some missed time due to injury.

We put him back in Tier 5, and once again, we had a handful of upvotes for him.

“He’s a good, borderline great bat who can play all three outfield spots pretty well and has a high floor,” said a team analyst. “Most of the other Tier 5s are players coming off down years or vets with good skillsets but serious thorns.”

So here we are again, moving Nootbar up and waiting for another breakout. Maybe it’s not surprising we also got one downvote.

Valuing a dependable vet

They probably won’t win any personal hardware, their games aren’t flashy, and they don’t play a premium position. But Reynolds and Walker both belong here based on their good track records and strong plate skills.

One analyst said, “Reynolds is a high-confidence Tier 4/5 player who would rank differently if he were a solid center fielder with the glove.”

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“Back-to-back 30-homer, 90-RBI, 120-wRC+ seasons,” a major-league hitter said of Walker. “If he didn’t play in Arizona, probably add another five homers.”

That’ll do.

Ascendant or flawed?

Volpe and Alvarez both got downvoted but stayed in Tier 4. They project to belong here, partially because they play premium defensive positions. But there are also glimpses of what could happen. Alvarez has already made a move to cover up a hole at the top of the zone, and Volpe spent the offseason straightening out his swing for more of a line-drive approach that better fits his raw power. Either way, expect them to be in different tiers next season.

Notable quotable

A scout said Arizona catcher Moreno, initially pegged for Tier 5, should have been rated much higher.

“I would actually have him in Tier 3,” the scout said. “He can hit for a catcher, and he can really throw. I’m not in love with his framing, but catching is and always has been so undervalued.”

TIER 5: Above-average starter

TIER 5A

PLAYERTIERTEAMPOSWARHRSBAVGOBPSLG
5A
WSN
SS
2.6
16
36
0.254
0.304
0.406
5A
MIA
OF
2.5
24
36
0.245
0.316
0.455
5A
STL
C
3.3
20
6
0.261
0.357
0.461
5A
TEX
OF
2.0
31
16
0.242
0.311
0.466
5A
OAK
2B
2.1
17
20
0.235
0.305
0.394
5A
STL
2B
1.9
25
5
0.230
0.310
0.441
5A
CHC
OF
2.2
19
11
0.251
0.345
0.417
5A
PIT
3B
2.2
15
16
0.264
0.320
0.413
5A
CLE
OF
1.5
2
18
0.271
0.341
0.346
5A
TBR
OF
1.4
14
19
0.243
0.305
0.411
5A
PHI
2B
2.2
11
22
0.267
0.325
0.402
5A
CHC
OF
2.7
21
12
0.272
0.355
0.466
5A
MIL
OF
2.5
16
23
0.264
0.365
0.419

The Big Debate: A tier too low, Ke’? 

Projecting Pirates third baseman Hayes’ production each spring always feels like wishcasting. He has all the components to be a star. He’s a Gold Glover, finally. He swipes double-digit bases. He limits whiffs. He blisters baseballs, and when he lifts them, they fly.

That’s what was so wondrous about his late-season surge in 2023, when he batted .299 with 10 homers in August and September. It all clicked.

One executive, arguing for Hayes to climb to Tier 4, said, “Hayes has a mixture of elite defense, average offensive production with the upside of his barrel and impact.”

A scout added: “Another guy I think can be up a tier if we are talking at the end of the season. Maybe even in August. A lot to like here.”

Signs so far this spring suggest Hayes is in a good place at bat. But can he sustain success across an entire season? We haven’t seen that yet, so we’re staying conservative for now.

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Gelof’s debut

Oakland second baseman Gelof has only 300 plate appearances in the majors, but he showed enough in that sample — .267/.337/.504 slash line, 14 homers, 14 steals — for one scout to pound the table for him as a Tier 4 guy.

“The strikeout rate (27.3 percent) is a concern and will likely always be high,” the scout said, “but there’s still some room for it to improve and he’ll have the production to compensate for it.”

The scout noted that Gelof, who, according to Statcast, has 91st percentile speed and 81st percentile range, is “also a better defender at second than many think.”

Abrams taking off

As soon as Bobby Witt Jr.’s $288.7 million extension was announced this winter, an NL player texted: “Nats better lock up CJ Abrams or they’ll be in the same boat.” Abrams, a 23-year-old shortstop, was one of the top Padres prospects who came over in the trade for Juan Soto and Josh Bell.

After struggling on both sides of the ball in 2022, Abrams started 2023 poorly as well. He was horrendous defensively early on, and he had a .661 OPS and just nine steals through June. What he did the rest of the way was remarkable. His defense improved. His bat got hot. And his wheels went wild. From July to October, Abrams batted .257/.318/.434 with 11 homers and 38 steals in 40 tries. If he walks more and keeps running, he’s in line for a huge 2024 season.

Notable quotable

One MLB manager on Marlins outfielder Jazz Chisholm Jr.: “Should be higher. Definitely has the potential. But can he figure it out — ever?”

TIER 5B

PlayerTierTeamPosWARHRSBAVGOBPSLG
5B
BOS
1B
1.3
24
1
0.243
0.341
0.445
5B
ARI
OF
1.3
14
6
0.282
0.330
0.435
5B
LAD
OF
2.5
28
10
0.268
0.323
0.496
5B
MIN
2B
2.6
15
9
0.247
0.355
0.400
5B
TBR
2B
2.5
21
5
0.235
0.327
0.444
5B
HOU
OF
2.0
18
15
0.249
0.327
0.413
5B
BAL
OF
2.2
21
31
0.242
0.310
0.422
5B
LAD
3B
3.4
28
2
0.229
0.351
0.465
5B
LAA
SS
2.5
19
8
0.251
0.319
0.423
5B
SEA
2B
2.6
22
7
0.243
0.323
0.435
5B
PHI
OF
2.9
41
3
0.227
0.352
0.503
5B
BOS
SS
1.9
20
20
0.240
0.307
0.432
5B
DET
1B
1.9
27
3
0.247
0.330
0.457
5B
TOR
OF
2.0
23
19
0.230
0.302
0.424

The Big Debate: Who to make of this Story? 

Can a guy who posted a 0.2 WAR last year be a real debate for inclusion? Yes, if that guy is Trevor Story. The Red Sox infielder has been hampered by injuries and is a far cry from the 26-year-old who put up MVP-ish numbers in 2019.

Story garnered MVP votes in 2018, 2019 and 2020, and was twice an All-Star in that stretch. Reports out of spring training have been positive, and one rival executive said he’d put Story down on a short list for comeback player of the year. The Red Sox are expected to finish last in the AL East. If they’re going to surprise people, it starts with Story finding his way back to form.

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Star on the way

This is not just a Red Sox tier, though you can insert your own joke here about Boston being at the bottom of the pile. Casas, who reportedly turned down an extension offer by the Red Sox this spring, is projected to have the same WAR as Story. But much of our panel was bullish on the 24-year-old former first-rounder. Casas told the Boston Globe he has three goals for the season: to play every game, to make the playoffs, and to finish with a .300/.400/.500 slash line.

“He should be around 30-35 home runs this year, and eventually 40 sometime soon,” a scout said.

Added an analyst: “I think he’s a bonafide star, a pillar of their team for years to come. I’d make the case he’s a 5A right now, with room to move up quickly.”

Squeak, squeak

There was nowhere to go but down — and off the list — for this group that just squeaked into the last tier. Who to watch from the bottom of the pack? How about Angels shortstop Neto, the club’s first-round pick in 2022 who debuted last year? He was initially one of our first players left out, but a couple experts willed him into Tier 5.

“He’s already in group 5 for me and should finish the year as a top starter,” said one scout. “He plays the game right. He gets the most out of his tools. He’s got sneaky pop, he can run, defend well at shortstop and (has an) innate feel for the barrel.”

Mr. Irrelevant

When Matt McLain’s shoulder surgery knocked him from Tier 4A to the ineligible pile, our final spot in the top 100 went to Astros outfielder Chas McCormick. Congrats, Chas!

Honorable mentions

PlayerTierTeamPosWARHRSBAVGOBPSLG
HM
STL
UTIL
1.9
10
25
0.263
0.319
0.408
HM
SFG
2B
1.4
11
24
0.256
0.307
0.376
HM
MIL
1B
2.0
28
4
0.241
0.344
0.463
HM
TEX
3B
2.4
24
4
0.254
0.311
0.445
HM
CHC
3B
1.5
25
15
0.240
0.309
0.455
HM
CLE
C
2.9
15
7
0.227
0.312
0.397
HM
CLE
1B
1.6
21
7
0.272
0.333
0.454
HM
LAD
OF
1.7
17
12
0.221
0.312
0.391
HM
HOU
SS
2.5
14
17
0.264
0.317
0.397
HM
CIN
UTIL
1.3
20
8
0.253
0.330
0.432
HM
STL
OF
1.2
15
10
0.264
0.328
0.422

Value of versatility

Spencer Steer and Thairo Estrada both played plenty of positions last year. Estrada played them better defensively, and Steer showed a better bat, but being able to move them around has value above and beyond the spreadsheet — at least to GMs as they put their rosters together. One estimate said prime Chris Taylor was worth more than an extra win for the Dodgers because of his ability to play all over the diamond.

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Guys who’ll prove us wrong

You’ve got a player you feel should’ve been included in these tiers, and we’ll hear about them in the comments for sure. But in Christopher Morel, Josh Naylor and Jordan Walker, we have three young players who could bust out and make their omission look silly. Morel’s glove, Walker’s glove and Naylor’s injuries and defense are the primary reasons they don’t project well, but they’re all young enough to improve there — and their bats are pretty special.

Here’s how many position players each team has in each tier:

TEAMTIER 1TIER 2TIER 3TIER 4TIER 5TOTAL
3
-
1
-
2
6
1
2
3
-
-
6
1
1
2
-
1
5
1
-
1
2
1
5
-
2
1
-
2
5
-
2
-
2
1
5
-
1
1
2
1
5
-
-
2
1
2
5
-
-
2
1
2
5
-
-
-
3
2
5
2
-
1
1
-
4
1
1
2
-
-
4
1
-
1
1
1
4
-
1
2
1
-
4
-
-
1
2
1
4
-
2
-
-
1
3
-
1
1
-
1
3
-
1
-
-
2
3
-
-
2
-
1
3
-
-
-
2
1
3
-
1
-
-
1
2
-
-
-
1
1
2
-
-
-
1
1
2
-
1
-
-
-
1
-
-
1
-
-
1
-
-
-
1
-
1
-
-
-
1
-
1
-
-
-
1
-
1
-
-
-
-
1
1
-
-
-
-
1
1

(Top photos of Bryce Harper: Bill Streicher / USA Today; Ronald Acuña Jr.: Ron Chenoy / USA Today; Corbin Carroll: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)

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