Cats’ big rise; which risers are for real, and who’s not? Power Rankings
Welcome back to the Power Rankings.
In just three weeks the premiers have slid all the way out of our top eight. Plus which early bolters are for real, and which ones aren’t?
What are the Power Rankings? This is our attempt to rank every AFL club from best to worst. We take wins and losses into account, but also the quality of opposition faced and whether teams are likely to get healthier or improve going forward. It’s a little bit ‘who’s hot and who’s not’; part predictive, part analysis of what’s happened. If Team A is above Team B, we’d probably tip A to win if they were playing at a neutral venue this weekend.
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All times AEDT.
1. GWS GIANTS (3-0, 165.7%)
Last week: Ranked 1st, def West Coast by 65 pts
It’s always hard to be too disappointed with a 10-goal win though you get the feeling the Giants could’ve really pumped the Eagles if they really wanted to. Where was the bag of eight or nine goals that put Jesse Hogan in pole position for the Coleman?! But hey, they’re 3-0, have won every game by five-plus goals, and as long as they take care of business against the Suns in Gather Round they’ll be well-placed before a tricky run of games against St Kilda, Carlton, Brisbane and Sydney.
Next game: BYE
2. SYDNEY SWANS (3-0, 136.3%)
Last week: Ranked 2nd, def Essendon by 30 pts
It was weird how well the midfield had been performing given their injury issues, so the first half against Essendon made some sense. The Swans’ class proved too much from that point, and while the Tigers showed on Sunday how they can be a dangerous opponent in patches for interstate contenders, you’d expect John Longmire’s men to take care of business again. Throw in West Coast in Gather Round and the Swans really should be 5-0 for the first time since 2012 - which was a pretty good year for the club, if you’ll recall. The only other thing we want to note is how bloody weird it is there’s no more footy in NSW until April 21! The Swans play away twice and have the bye before their next SCG game in Round 6, while the Giants are in their Easter Show displacement period. What a great way to capitalise on the momentum of Opening Round...
Next game: Richmond at the MCG, Sunday 4pm
3. MELBOURNE (2-1, 141.5%)
Last week: Ranked 3rd, def Hawthorn by 55 pts
In the actual rounds named after numbers as the footy gods intended, the Demons have been fantastic. Now back to the real stuff, with a real test against fellow two-win side the Power. Last year excepted, they’ve been really good at Adelaide Oval in recent seasons - even before they were in this current premiership era. The Steven May and Jake Lever injury blows are less than ideal, though the Dees seem optimistic about getting May back pretty quickly and Lever could even play this weekend. While we’re leaning Port’s way with our tip because of the home ground advantage factor, the Demons have been much stronger over the last fortnight, so this would be the chance to make a real statement that they’re in the absolute top tier of contenders alongside the NSW clubs.
Next game: Port Adelaide at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:30pm
4. CARLTON (2-0, 103.6%)
Last week: Ranked 4th, BYE
The Blues had the bye last week. Last year on Good Friday they struggled to pull away from the Kangaroos until the second half - they’re a better team now than they were then, so if they’re serious they should take care of business comfortably.
Next game: North Melbourne at Marvel Stadium, Friday 4:20pm
5. GEELONG (2-0, 118.6%)
Last week: Ranked 8th, def Geelong by 19 pts
...so the Cats are just good again, then? Only good teams beat Adelaide in Adelaide last year - well, Richmond did as well, but that was so early in the season you almost can’t count it - and now Geelong should be favoured in their next three matches, against the Hawks, Bulldogs and Kangaroos. It turns out when you’ve still got most of that dominant premiership core, combined with a fleet of young talent that’s more promising than a team always drafting near the end of the order should have, you can still win games of footy. If you’ll recall, pre-season we wrote an article about the yearly bottom 10 to top four bolter, and picked Adelaide ahead of Geelong. Well, the Cats look a lot more likely right now than the Crows...
Next game: Hawthorn at the MCG, Monday 3:20pm
6. BRISBANE LIONS (0-2, 86.6%)
Last week: Ranked 5th, BYE
The Lions had the bye last week. It’s pretty simple, really; they can deliver massive damage to Collingwood’s season with a win on Thursday night, which would be a little bit of revenge we’re sure they’d enjoy. But if they lose, they won’t just be 0-3 overall but even worse, 0-2 at the Gabba. Since turning into contenders under Chris Fagan in 2019, the only time they lost two home and away games at the Gabba (in 2022) was also the only time they missed the top four.
Next game: Collingwood at the Gabba, Thursday 7:30pm
7. PORT ADELAIDE (2-0, 149.4%)
Last week: Ranked 7th, def Richmond by 30 pts
Again, we ask, have we really learned anything about the Power yet? We know they can win home and away games - it’s why Ken Hinkley is the first V/AFL coach to spend 250 games at one club without making or winning a Grand Final. It’s good that they’re winning the games they should be winning, and winning them pretty well, but we’ll find out if Port Adelaide is serious over the next three weeks. If they beat Melbourne, Essendon and Fremantle at home, they’re 5-0, flying and maybe legit (depending on the margins). If they drop one, they’re probably just the 5th to 8th team most people tipped them to be. If they drop two or more... well, then we can have a different, more concerning dialogue.
Next game: Melbourne at Adelaide Oval, Saturday 7:30pm
8. ST KILDA (1-1, 104.5%)
Last week: Ranked 11th, def Collingwood by 15 pts
It was a great weekend for the Saints, not just with their own victory, but with the close result against Geelong looking that much better by the way the Cats performed against Adelaide. We can’t remember the last time we watched a St Kilda team and got so excited about the talent on display - because for years they’ve just been the definition of an average, mid-pack team. No, now they have X-factor, with Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera a sneaky All-Australian contender already, Liam Henry showing why they wanted to bring him over - shame about the injury - and Max King having flashes of brilliance (though you’d like it to happen more consistently). Being without Henry and King, if the latter’s Tribunal defence fails, against Essendon could swing that game but if the Saints are as good as we think they can be, they should win it anyway.
Next game: Essendon at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 4:20pm
9. COLLINGWOOD (0-3, 74.2%)
Last week: Ranked 6th, lost to St Kilda by 15 pts
We’re in the weird position of needing to point to things like expected score to defend Collingwood, after a couple of years of criticising them in that regard - it’s almost like they’re regressing to the mean, how strange. Because on a lot of the underlying numbers, the Magpies have had one properly bad loss to Sydney, and two almost games against the Giants and Saints, where they were closer than the respective margins suggest. But they’re 0-3. And if they lose to Brisbane on Thursday night - as they did early last year, when they were otherwise flying - they’ll be 0-4. And you just don’t contend from 0-4. You can make finals, sure, and everyone is going to point to that weird Sydney 2017 season where they went from 0-6 to hosting a final. But they also tired themselves out in the process, and got pumped by 10 goals in their semi-final. History tells us you can turn it around and be the danger team in September if you’re 0-4, but you just can’t be a legitimate contender. So, if you’re defining ‘season’ as ‘chances of winning the flag again’, Collingwood’s season is on the line against the Lions.
Next game: Brisbane Lions at the Gabba, Thursday 7:30pm
10. FREMANTLE (2-0, 133.6%)
Last week: Ranked 9th, def North Melbourne by 26 pts
The Dockers have rarely been that good under the roof - even after storming home to beat the Kangaroos, they’re 7-15 with a draw in their last 23 matches there - so it’s still a handy win. Plus there’s the whole ‘why are they making WA teams play games at 10am on their body clock?’ thing, which is just a bit silly, though we understand they can’t play the Sunday twilight game every week. The important thing is they’ve banked the win, marking their first 2-0 start since 2015, and Friday night shapes as a genuine eight-pointer. It would be very surprising if both the Dockers and Adelaide make the eight, so moving to 3-0 while condemning the Crows to 0-3 would be a major step towards September for Justin Longmuir’s men, even if they’ve still got work to do to prove they’re genuine threats.
Next game: Adelaide Crows at Optus Stadium, Friday 7:30pm
11. WESTERN BULLDOGS (1-1, 101.7%)
Last week: Ranked 13th, def Gold Coast by 48 pts
Don’t lose to West Coast at home again. Don’t lose to West Coast at home again. Don’t lose to West Coast at home again. Don’t lose to West Coast at home again. Don’t lose to West Coast at home again. Don’t lose to West Coast at home again. Don’t lose to West Coast at home again. (One reminder for every point of last year’s margin.)
Next game: West Coast Eagles at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1pm
12. ESSENDON (1-1, 97.2%)
Last week: Ranked 14th, lost to Sydney by 30 pts
Looking at the two games they’ve played in 2024, we were more impressed with the Bombers’ five-goal loss than their four-goal win. That’s twice now the midfield has put them in a really good position, and while they fell off in the second half against the Swans, it’s still emerging as a potential strength. The defence was bad, absolutely, but it’s not exactly a shock to see Sydney’s ball movement doing a lot more damage than Hawthorn’s. Like, duh. If the Bombers can keep up the quality they showed in the first half at the SCG they might actually have something this year, and the Saints - likely a team they’re fighting for a spot in the bottom half of the eight - are a great test.
Next game: St Kilda at Marvel Stadium, Saturday 4:20pm
13. GOLD COAST SUNS (2-1, 98.7%)
Last week: Ranked 10th, lost to Western Bulldogs by 48 pts
There’s nothing wrong specifically with losing an away game to the Bulldogs, who are in the same weight class as the Suns, but losing by almost 50 points is pretty concerning. The midfield was well beaten and once again Gold Coast just lacked any real pizzazz; though we liked what we saw in flashes from Jed Walter. The mission over the next two months is simple - don’t have a losing record any point. The Suns alternate tough games (vs GWS, at Swans, at Lions) with very winnable ones (vs Hawks, vs Eagles, vs Roos) so they need to be 5-4, at worst, heading into a rare primetime fixture against Geelong on the Thursday night of Round 10.
Next game: BYE
14. ADELAIDE CROWS (0-2, 84%)
Last week: Ranked 12th, lost to Geelong by 19 pts
Our pre-season tip as a top-four bolter is looking very shaky, because they can’t afford to lose too many games at home if they’re any chance of making it. We’re not completely panicking about the Crows because they were the victim of the weekend’s Expected Score Game - Geelong kicked 10 goals before actually kicking a behind; all others on their tally at the time of Shaun Mannagh’s third quarter miss having been rushed. In the end the Crows lost 77-96 with an expected scoreline of 89-83. But at the same time Matthew Nicks’ side has shown little of the dynacism that made them so fun to watch in 2023. We’ve long throught they were an A-grade midfielder away from truly contending, but Jordan Dawson hasn’t been enough to lift an otherwise same-y bunch, and their inside 50 entries on Friday night - while prolific - were poorly thought out. Frighteningly there’s a very real chance they’re 0-5, with Fremantle away, Melbourne in Gather Round and Carlton away to come. Things could get out of hand quickly here.
Next game: Fremantle at Optus Stadium, Friday 7:30pm
15. RICHMOND (0-3, 75.9%)
Last week: Ranked 15th, lost to Port Adelaide by 30 pts
It felt a bit unfair in the pre-season when the Tigers were being automatically included by most experts as the fourth member of their predicted bottom four - after all, they’re nowhere near as bad as the Hawks, Kangaroos and Eagles. And through three games it’s pretty clear that view was correct. They are nowhere near as bad as those teams, but they’re also not good enough to beat most of the actually good sides, putting them in this awkward limbo where their season is effectively already irrelevant. Like, is there any legitimate chance Richmond plays finals in 2024? No, right? But they’re also not bad enough to truly tank. At least they own their own pick, plus Freo’s second and third, though the Dockers might be better than they would’ve hoped. The club is just in a weird position where they’re not rebuilding right now, but one is surely coming; you don’t want to be West Coast, and sleepwalk your way into being terrible for half a decade.
Next game: Sydney Swans at the MCG, Sunday 4pm
16. HAWTHORN (0-2, 60.5%)
Last week: Ranked 16th, lost to Melbourne by 55 pts
We completely understand David King’s scathing rebuke of the Hawks on Sunday night, because the point of a rebuilding year - and make no mistake, this is still a rebuilding year, regardless of the amount of pre-season hype Sam Mitchell’s men received - is to learn things. And you learn nothing by lamely chipping it around and playing in a way no good team has played for half a decade. But we move on, because last year the Hawks often followed up their worst efforts with their best. Think the Easter Monday second half capitulation into very narrow losses to GWS and Adelaide, or the Port Adelaide first half embarrassment into beating Brisbane. So how much would they love to spoil Geelong’s fast start to the season?
Next game: Geelong at the MCG, Monday 3:20pm
17. NORTH MELBOURNE (0-2, 70.9%)
Last week: Ranked 17th, lost to Fremantle by 26 pts
It’s understandable to be frustrated with Saturday’s loss, because that second quarter lead could’ve easily been so much better had the Kangaroos taken their numerous chances, but in a season like this you want to focus on the positives and learn what strengths you have. And clearly North has an exciting midfield bunch that can do some damage; we continue to see glimpses of the next great North team, in a way that you don’t with West Coast. The gap between the pair really does feel quite large right now.
Next game: Carlton at Marvel Stadium, Friday 4:20pm
18. WEST COAST EAGLES (0-2, 49.6%)
Last week: Ranked 18th, lost to GWS by 65 pts
There are two options on Sunday. One is the Eagles somehow beat the Bulldogs again, in what would be a frankly hilarious result from their perspective, because they would absolutely be in the Dogs’ heads for years if they can follow up ruining their 2023 season with another baffling upset. Two is the Eagles just lose because they’re very bad. So we would advise just accepting that two will happen, because then if one happens, it’s even funnier!
Next game: Western Bulldogs at Marvel Stadium, Sunday 1pm