Since spring training is always a time for nostalgia, what do you say we reminisce about the top three topics of last spring training. Which would be …
The rules.
The rules.
And also … the rules.
It was quite a time to be alive. An actual big-league game ended on a “clock-off.” … Daniel Vogelbach starred in a base-stealing commercial. … Wacky innovations like the two-man outfield became a thing. … Umpires were calling pitch-clock violations on the bat boys. … We saw bases being swiped at a rate not witnessed in this sport since the days of Ty Cobb.
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And those were just the highlights. It was Year One of sport-altering stuff like … the pitch clock … pickoff limits … the outlawing of extreme uses of The Shift … and bigger bases, So of course it was all anybody talked about.
Never in the modern history of baseball had this sport looked so different. So every day was an adjustment. And every conversation seemed to start: “Hey, did you see what happened in that game?”
But that was sooooo 2023. We welcome you now to 2024, when New Rules Baseball has pretty much just blended into the background of spring training — unless you’re a player … or a coaching staff … or a front-office data cruncher. In which case you’re doing what baseball always does:
Evolve.
All of those folks used the winter to dig in on what they learned last year from Year One of New Rules Baseball. They’ve spent this spring testing how to exploit that knowledge in Year Two. And guess what? They’re not done.
“One year isn’t enough time to stabilize and adapt as an industry,” a National League general manager said.
“I think you’re seeing teams trying to figure out how to best manipulate the rules,” Marlins manager Skip Schumaker said.
There’s also this: The pitch clock just shrank from 20 seconds to 18 seconds with runners on base. That’s a new wrinkle. (It’s still 15 seconds with no one on.)
And umpires are now empowered to ticket infielders for obstruction if they drop a knee while catching a throw, to keep base runners from reaching a base. That’s another new development, though it’s been applied to an old rule.
So players find themselves trying to adapt on the fly to that, too. And here’s a surprise: Many of them aren’t delighted about it. They’re just not shouting it into a microphone every day.
“I think players are at a point where we’re just tired of talking about it,” one veteran pitcher said. “It’s almost like fighting with your mom for ice cream before bed. It is what it is. You’re not going to get it. So you can either throw a fit or just go to bed.”
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Yeah, but that doesn’t mean we can’t dish out the (cough, cough) scoop on what you should be looking for as another season roars toward us. So here’s our handy dandy guide to everything you should keep an eye on in the latest chapter of New Rules Baseball — Year Two.
The two-second solution
So what have you ever accomplished in two seconds? You can’t cook dinner, pay the bills or binge-watch “The Bear.” So what’s more overrated than two seconds, right?
Um, wrong — at least according to the powers that be who run this sport. Because here’s what those time-efficiency lovers at Major League Baseball think they can accomplish in two seconds this season (by shaving two seconds off the pitch clock with men on base):
Save 621,000 seconds worth of dead time!
All right, now we’re talking. There were 310,504 pitches thrown by big-league pitchers with runners on base last season, back when the pitch clock ticked for 20 seconds. So what if every one of those pitches had been thrown two seconds earlier?
Voila! Then the games would have been approximately 621,000 seconds shorter — or, to be more precise … 10,350 minutes … or 172 1/2 hours … or four minutes and 16 seconds per game shorter.
So how are you feeling about those two seconds now, huh?
Well, that undoubtedly depends on whether you’re commissioner Rob Manfred, or a fan who has to wake up for work tomorrow, or a player whose life will be directly impacted by those two seconds.
“Two seconds — it’s such a minor thing for a fan,” said Phillies super-utility dude Whit Merrifield, who is also a member of the competition committee that deliberated on this change. “But if you talk to pitchers and players, it’s not.”
So what’s the big deal?
“When you’re talking about going from 20 to 18 seconds with someone on base,” Merrifield said, “that’s a shake that a pitcher doesn’t get, for a pitch that he might want. That’s a thought a batter doesn’t get when a guy throws a pitch and he can step out and think about his game plan, think about the pitcher he’s facing, think about the sequence of the pitches he’s thrown him, think about maybe he fouled that ball off and didn’t get that swing that he wanted.
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“All of that goes through your head,” Merrifield said. “So two seconds might not seem like a lot, but for us, it’s a long time.”
OK, we know what you’re thinking. This sounds exactly like the talk we heard from players last spring about dealing with the pitch clock. And what happened? Those players may not have been ecstatic, but they adjusted — because what choice did they have?
• Over the first couple of weeks last season, teams averaged nearly one clock violation per game.
• By June, that was down to a violation every three games.
• By October, the entire World Series was played without a single violation.
So here’s a safe bet: By June, you’ll be hearing a lot more about the latest White Sox trade rumors than you will about those two seconds.
“Basically, we’ve just got to deal with it,” Rays manager Kevin Cash said. “It’s for the fans, right? We’re listening to our fans. Do we want fans to watch and come to the ballpark? Then do it. We’re in the entertainment business. If we poll them and they’re saying, hey, we want more of this or more of that, then we owe it to them to do it.”
Turn back the hands of time
So are you curious about what kind of impact that tighter pitch clock has had this spring? We were. Incredibly, that answer is … almost none!
AVERAGE SPRING GAME TIME
2024: 2:34*
2023: 2:35
(*through March 17)
TIME BETWEEN PITCHES THROWN
2024: 19.6 seconds
2023: 19.7 seconds
So what should we make of that? A few quick thoughts:
• Baseball officials seem confident those spring times are misleading and game times will drop once the season starts. But are they sure about that? The average game time last April (2:36) was almost identical to the average game time last spring (2:35).
• And why hasn’t the average elapsed time between pitches changed? Because data showed that pitchers weren’t using all the time on the clock anyway. With runners on base last season, the average pitch was delivered with 7.3 seconds left on the 20-second pitch clock. That’s a big reason MLB pushed to lop time off the clock in the first place.
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• But even if the jury is still out on whether the tighter clock can trim four minutes off game times or not, let’s not lose sight of the most important part: The pitch clock is still doing what it was built to do!
Two years ago, in the last spring training without a clock, the average game lasted three hours and one minute. So that’s a drop of 27 minutes when compared to this spring. And regular-season game times are down even more dramatically (31 minutes) over the same period:
2021: 3:10
2022: 3:03
2023: 2:39
So why will those clocks keep ticking? Because the alternative was so much worse.
“With the pitch clock, faster is awesome,” Cash said. “We played two (spring training) games in the Dominican without the pitch clock because they didn’t have it set up. I’ll tell you what: You noticed it.”
Timing is everything
If you’re a dad or mom taking a 7-year-old to the ballpark, we understand why you care mostly about time — as in: What time can I stop buying cotton candy and get this kid home?
But if you’re a manager, a pitching coach or a big-league pitcher, and you’ve survived Year One of the pitch clock, it’s not about time anymore. It’s about timing.
When we asked people around the sport this spring what they learned from Year One, that was the most powerful message they delivered: We spent a season figuring out how to live with the clock. Now it’s time to use the clock.
“You’re trying to disrupt timing as a pitcher,” Schumaker said. “So you need to utilize that time on the mound and make the hitter wait. No hitter likes to wait 10 seconds just standing there. They want to get in the box, and they’re ready to hit.”
So why will Year Two of New Rules Baseball be more interesting, if you’re paying attention, than Year One? It’s that ebb and flow of baseball. Teams study. They take notes. They use what they learned. Then they watch and see what those guys 60 feet away have learned. So just focus on that ebb and flow this summer, and you’ll understand exactly what we mean.
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“There’s a cat-and-mouse aspect to it,” Schumaker said. “I think the guys that have now been in the weeds, who have done it for a year, the smart hitters will wait until they want to hit. And the pitchers will try to get on the mound and make you look at them as quick as they can, right? So that’s why the pitch clock is the one that’s going to be the most interesting to me — after we’ve all done it for one year.”
The art of the steal
Last month, we polled 31 executives, former executives, coaches, managers and scouts on which New Rules 2.0 development they thought we were most likely to see this year. It turned out to be a landslide … of voters predicting more stolen bases.
“If the success rate is 80 percent, we should steal more,” one National League exec said.
“I think the aggressiveness on the bases is just going to continue to rise,” an American League exec said.
But it’s worth asking: How much higher is it even possible for base stealing to rise? We only ask because last year’s rule changes lit a fuse that produced a stolen-base explosion not witnessed in a generation.
• The rate of stolen-base attempts (1.8 per game) was the highest since 2012.
• Twenty-one teams swiped at least 100 bases. Two years ago, there were five.
• We saw 51 players steal 20 bases or more — the most since 1989.
• And the stolen-base success rate was 80.2 percent. That was the highest ever.
So what makes people think this rocket has barely left the launch pad? It’s because their teams have now had time to do the math on what’s possible. And they see a landscape dramatically tilted toward the local track team — deliberately, by the way, because fans have repeatedly said in surveys they love base-burgling.
“We came out of camp last year,” Cash said, “saying these rules are going to promote more base-stealing, but you don’t really know if it does. Well, now we know. It does. And we need to take advantage of it.”
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If you thought the Rays were already one of the teams that took advantage of it last year, you’re correct. They stole the fourth-most bases in the majors (160). And they were one of only three teams that even attempted to steal at least 200 times. (The others: the Reds and Royals.)
But now they’re even more geared up. They’ve assembled one of the fastest rosters in baseball, according to Statcast. And they’ve accumulated voluminous data on pitchers’ tendencies — from how often they attempt a pickoff throw to the time (on the clock) they’re most likely to deliver a pitch.
“We have enough information right now, going into a game, about a pitcher — starter or reliever,” Cash said. “You know how, when guys get on base and before they steal, they say, ‘I just want to see him for a pitch or two?’ That needs to be already prepared. That has been done — through video, through the coaches prepping and explaining it to the players — to where, when they get on first base or get on second base, be ready to go. First pitch.”
The Rays have plowed deep into data on pickoff percentages and tendencies. So if they’re already geared to run on the first pitch, you don’t need a vivid imagination to guess what they might do if a pitcher uses his first pickoff move.
“If they pick off once, you need to dial up your effort level, getting to second base, that much more,” Cash said. “And if they pick off twice, it’s on you if you don’t get there.”
We counted about a half-dozen teams talking this way this spring — and there undoubtedly are more keeping their plans under the radar. So are 200 stolen bases possible? No team got to 200 last year. Are 250 possible? No team has stolen that many since Paul Molitor’s 1992 Brewers.
Could somebody even get to 300, a level reached just twice in the live-ball era — while maintaining that 80-percent success rate? It doesn’t seem preposterous, since the league-wide percentage kept going up last year as the season rolled along.
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If anyone is going to test those limits, the Rays just might be the team.
“I think we’ll find out,” Cash predicted, “because we’re going to pound the table and run.”
Then he let out a laugh — sounding kind of like a guy getting ready to lift the starting gate at the Kentucky Derby.
“And if I’m wrong, and we’re at 50 percent (success rate) after the first month,” he said, “I’ll call you back and you can rewrite the article.”
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You’ve heard from the cat … now here’s the mouse
For every action, there’s a reaction. Didn’t Sir Isaac Newton say that? Or was that Casey Stengel? Whatever, it wasn’t just the base stealers who were gearing up for action this spring. It was the crime stoppers.
With these rules, we wish lots of luck to any team whose defensive motto these days is: Thou shalt not steal (second). But combatting the running game was still a massive point of emphasis for many clubs this spring.
Red Sox manager Alex Cora: “That’s something that we got exposed on in the first two series of the season, by Baltimore and the Pirates (who stole 14 bases in a row against Cora’s team). Then, after that, we made adjustments, because you have to. …
“That 90 feet you give up, it’s very valuable. So the same way we take care of deliveries and pitch shapes and all that stuff, we have to do a better job in the dugout (of paying attention to base stealers). That’s something that we know. But at the end of the day, that guy on the mound needs to be better.”
Astros manager Joe Espada: “We haven’t just talked about running more, but also controlling the running game. I think teams are starting to use the clock as a timing device. And they’re starting to keep track of the information on when pitchers are picking over, which counts they’re picking over, when they’re delivering the pitches. So they use the clock as a way to time the pitcher.
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“And that’s something that we’re trying to make an adjustment on, but also trying to take advantage of. So this is Year Two. We learned a lot from Year One. So we’ll see where it goes.”
Firing up that data only takes you so far, though. So what might you see more of in Year Two? Here are three adjustments the crime-stoppers are aspiring to make.
Better use of pickoffs: You only get two pickoff throws (or three if you’re not afraid to balk). So if a team is going to use them as a deterrent, it needs to employ those moves more strategically than last year.
We heard predictions that you’ll see more pitchers gamble on making a second, and even third, pickoff attempt if it’s the right combination of pitcher, runner and data. OK, we’ll believe that when we see it. But that doesn’t mean pickoffs can’t still be a weapon.
Would you believe there were actually more runners picked off by pitchers last year (290) than in 2022 (275)? And there was intensive work on the back fields this spring by teams trying to dramatically improve their pitchers’ moves to first.
“You can’t waste your picks,” said Schumaker. “So for me, you have to get really good at pickoff moves. Zack Greinke is the best at it, when he just kind of jump-throws, where it’s like all one motion. There are a few other guys that are really good. And I don’t think that’s ever really taught. … So I think if you get really good at it, that makes it more challenging for guys to steal. But you can’t just lob it over.”
Get quicker to the plate: Never in history have base stealers been more aware of how long it takes every pitcher to deliver a pitch, from delivery to the catcher’s mitt. That’s because, in the current runner-centric climate, “if those guys see you’re at, like, 1.6 (seconds to home plate), they’re ready to freaking go,” Cora said.
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So this sport might have set a spring training record for most pitchers learning a slide step. For many of those pitchers, it’s either that or watch the track meet erupt.
“We’ve got to be quicker to the plate,” Cash said. “That has been a point of emphasis in our camp, that we’re asking of our pitching staff. For so many years here, we’ve said: ‘Execute the pitch. That is priority 1-A.’ Now, I mean, I think it still is. I know it still is. But somewhere, we have to be responsive to what these rules are suggesting for base runners. So we’ve got to give ourselves a chance to get an out when guys are just going to run.”
Paging Mr. Pudge Rodriguez: Anybody seen any turbo-armed catchers hanging around their yard? The search for those guys might be more of a long-term roster-building emphasis than a 2024 thing. But the hunt for more Gabriel Morenos and Patrick Baileys is underway.
“I think, on the player-personnel side of this – for instance, with the way teams choose their catchers and how much they prioritize controlling the running game and using pop times — that was always going to be a multi-year phenomenon,” one longtime executive said. “But I’ll be interested to see, using some of the Statcast metrics, whether we have better throwers taking a greater percentage of the catching innings this year, because I think that’s inevitable.”
A crash course on obstruction reduction
Just because umpires obviously don’t have enough to do, baseball has given them one more violation to look out for this year — the good old-fashioned obstruction call.
So what are they on the lookout for? That would be stuff like this!
Infielders should be protected but I hate that they are allowed to do this. pic.twitter.com/dMLnpT8gJU
— Codify (@CodifyBaseball) August 13, 2022
In other words, no more middle infielders stationing their whole leg between a base runner and that base he’s trying to get to. And no more first basemen taking pickoff throws by dropping to one knee and turning their leg into a highway barricade.
That wasn’t a prevalent technique in the past. But then the rules changed last year, and base stealing became cool again. So how did infielders respond? By perfecting their subtle little base-blocking tricks. And what’s the big deal about that? Let Kevin Cash explain it to you.
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“The new rule I’m interested to see how it’s going to be called is the obstruction rule,” Cash said. “That’s even more incentive for the base runners — (the Rays’) Josh Lowe, for example. There are days he gets on base, he steals, he collides with an infielder, and it’s like a train wreck. It’s like two linemen coming together, between Josh on the ground or hitting somebody’s shins. That (stinks). And the next day, he’s like, ‘Man, I’m not doing that again. I want to stay in the lineup.’”
Or take it from the Blue Jays’ Kevin Kiermaier: “I love Matt Chapman. But he sprained my wrist doing that. He’s one of my best friends I’ve ever had. But I told him: ‘I wish I would have slid in feet-first … because you sprained my wrist and I was messed up for three months in 2021.’ I’ve seen it happen to other guys, too.”
The proper authorities heard that enough to say: Let’s fix it. So to do that, the competition committee empowered umpires to start enforcing a longstanding obstruction rule that had been pretty much ignored for years.
The committee thought the result would be a slew of obstruction brouhahas this spring, as players tested the limits of what would and wouldn’t be policed. Instead, there have been only a handful of obstruction calls — mostly because base running is so much more, eh, leisurely in spring training. So when that changes next month, an Angel Hernandez Moment is probably coming.
But in the meantime, the league has been compiling video examples this spring of when obstruction should (and shouldn’t) be called — and circulating them to umpires. And infielders have been trying to re-train themselves on the art of taking throws by straddling, not blocking the bag.
Check out these before/after examples featuring Phillies second baseman Bryson Stott, often described as one of the most frequent base-barricaders last year.
BEFORE (last Aug. 16, at Toronto)
AFTER (March 11 spring training game versus the Yankees)
Stott on how he’s adjusting: “What I’ve kind of been telling everyone is, you don’t block the base on purpose. You’re trying to catch the ball. And it’s a natural move for your knee to go down. I don’t know anyone that’s flexible enough to reach all the way across their body and keep their knee off the ground. But this is what they want us to do, so I guess we’ll figure it out.”
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Umpires have told infielders that they plan to call this similarly to how they now enforce the Buster Posey Rule on plays at the plate. If the fielder sets up to deliberately drop down a knee or leg, that’s obstruction. If the throw forces him into that position, then everyone’s favorite principle — umpire discretion — comes into play.
More from Stott: “I don’t know how stickler they’re going to be on it. I’ve just been talking to some umpires … and a lot of them are baseball guys. So they know it’s a baseball play at second. And they’re trying to look at the hand, the glove, the tag, and now they’ve got to add on an obstruction call to it.
“So I think it’s going to be like the strike zone. Some guys have big strike zones. Some guys are going to be sticklers on the obstruction call. So I mean, everyone’s kind of learning. I guess (laughs) we’ll push it and see how much we can get away with.”
Well, here’s a guess on how that will go: April will be nuts, as runners and fielders push the envelope as far as they can push it — and umpires let them know exactly what they can’t get away with. Also, remember that this call is not reviewable. So that will add another layer of fun, while we all debate whether/when that should change.
Get ready for several weeks of that wackiness. After that, it should settle down. But who knows? Is it possible that, for a while, this rule could wreak even more havoc than the Buster Posey Rule did in its early days?
“Sure,” Cash said, with a wink. “It’s three more bases.”
What’s next?
So is this it? Are they done messing with the rules once all this gets baked into the casserole? Let’s go with no on that. Here’s what else could lie ahead.
ROBOT UMPS — Do we still have to explain we’re not talking about actual robots? We’re talking about an electronic strike zone, defined by technology, with input from your favorite baseball humans. And you could see some form of that arrive in the big leagues by 2025.
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Or not.
It’s a pivotal year in the life of that electronic strike zone (aka “ABS” for Automated Ball-Strike System). Baseball has been testing it for years now, starting in the independent Atlantic League, then easing it into the Class-A Florida State League, then introducing it across all of Triple A last year. So you’d think the whole process would be smoothed out and ready to go by now, wouldn’t you?
Eh, not so much. They’re still working on it! This year, they’re …
• Still trying to calibrate the definition of the strike zone so it more closely matches what humans (i.e., both pitchers and hitters) think of as a strike.
• Still working with the technology that will allow every hitter’s zone to be individualized, based on body type and stance.
• Still debating whether the best solution is full-time robot umpiring on every pitch (not likely), or a challenge system saved for just the biggest moments (most likely), or no robots at all (still possible).
But also, if MLB goes with that challenge-system option, they still need to decide how many challenges each team gets, who can make those challenges, whether a team gets to keep its challenge if it’s right, and other assorted final touches.
Even after all this testing, every one of those options is still on the table. But by sometime this summer — most likely in mid-to-late August — there will be some sort of decision … and an announcement … and weeks of talk-show conversation will 100 percent ensue!
MORE SHIFT LIMITS — On one hand, the shift “ban” definitely worked — to a point. According to Sports Info Solutions, the batting average of left-handed hitters went up 45 points when they pulled groundballs or short line drives last year.
On the other hand, if you had this fantasy that a groundball up the middle might actually turn into a hit again, boy, did that not happen. The average team wound up with only three more of those over the course of the entire season.
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So the minor leagues and independent leagues will continue to experiment this year with “the pie slice” — essentially, a triangle behind second base where middle infielders can’t stand — to see if that’s the answer. But don’t look for any pie slices coming to an infield — or dessert plate — near you anytime soon.
And although there has been talk about other experiments — limiting where outfielders can stand, for instance, to see if that produces more doubles and triples — it’s a long shot that you’ll see anything like that in any league this summer.
OTHER BRAINSTORMS — Is it possible to trim game times and dead time even more than what the pitch clock has produced? We’ve heard talk about tightening up replay with instantaneous challenges … and honing in on pitching-change dead time by requiring managers to signal for pitching changes the moment they leave the dugout. But both of those (plus other ideas) feel like they’re lurking way over the horizon for now.
Is it possible to cut down on the strikeout rate? Seems like an important goal. But there’s so much disagreement on how that would be accomplished, only a slightly tweaked strike zone — paired with electronic ball/strike calls — is a near-term option. But would it even work? Good question. And it might not even be compatible with a challenge system.
Plus, that war on whiffing is wrapped up in a much larger discussion: What could baseball do to attack the pitcher injury rate, restore the prominence of starting pitchers and incentivize everyone to strive for a sport where pitchers aren’t trying to throw every single pitch as hard as they can?
That’s a crisis even one of our favorite experiments — the Double Hook — can’t solve, at least not without a whole set of other innovations paired with it. So keep those brainstorms in your favorite storage unit. For now, we all have plenty to watch in 2024 as baseball ebbs, flows and spends the next six months contemplating the true meaning of saving two seconds.
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(Top photo of the Cubs’ Christopher Morel being awarded home by umpire Nick Mahrley after the Angels’ Luis Rengifo was called for obstruction for blocking third base in a spring training game: Matt York / Associated Press)
