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USATSI

The 2024 Major League Baseball season kicks off with the Dodgers and Padres squaring off in South Korea on March 20-21 with Opening Day for everyone else coming on March 28. Yes, those dates aren't all too far ahead of us. The start of the season is certainly closer than on the horizon. As we inch closer and closer to the season, more and more baseball fans -- thanks to the continuing spread of legal gambling -- will be looking to make some futures plays. 

For the gambling novices out there, "futures" are bets that involve the entire season, such as picking a division winner, World Series champion or just a win total. We'll focus on the latter here and -- again, for any newbies -- point out that "totals" are also sometimes called "over/unders." That is, there's a line set for each of the 30 teams with a number that is the "win total" and you'd be betting on that team's actually 2024 win total being "over" or "under" the gambling total (thus the half numbers).

As I've done every year for nearly a decade, I'll be playing some overs and unders. For a while, I picked five overs and five unders and generally fell somewhere from 5-5 to 8-2 (that year was fun). Last season, I picked four of each and went 5-3. We'll look for a similar level of success at minimum and hope for better. 

Here are the gambling win totals for all 30 teams. 

Los Angeles Dodgers UNDER 104.5

They are loaded and will probably win 100 games. It's just that I've already covered my concerns with the starting rotation and it's incredibly difficult to win 105 games in a season. In the Wild Card Era (1995-present), only 11 teams have won at least 105 in a season. If you want to argue the Dodgers are one of the top 10 teams in the Wild Card Era, that's fine. I just can't see this team getting to 105. 

Houston Astros OVER 92

The Astros won 90 games last season despite their rotation being ravaged by injuries and underperformance. Yordan Alvarez played in 114 games while Jose Altuve played in just 90. And, somehow, they were pathetic at home, going 39-42 against a 51-30 record on the road. 

I think they'll have better fortune with injuries this season and that home record was a total one-year mirage. The schedule isn't as unbalanced toward the division as it used to be, but the Astros still get 13 games against the A's and Angels apiece. That's a lot better than someone from, say, the AL East ... 

New York Yankees UNDER 93.5

If the Yankees have full health from all the important players throughout the season and things, generally, go well, they are going to go past this number. They might even fly past it. Remember, they won 99 games in 2022. Of course, that was with a 35-35 second half and a super-human Aaron Judge. They won 82 games last season. 

I do think the Yankees are better. They added Juan Soto. Hopefully they'll get a full season of Judge. Anthony Rizzo's concussion issues are seemingly behind him, which means he could be in line for a season similar to 2022. The rotation behind Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole is talented. 

It's also full of question marks. The bullpen isn't deep and the lineup has plenty of injury concern. Plus, keep in mind this division remains loaded. The Orioles look very strong, the Blue Jays aren't going away and only a fool would bet against the Rays being a contender. 

Of course, since this was written, we've learned about Cole needing an MRI on his elbow and Judge getting tests on his abs. After those things happened, their win total was taken off the board. 

I've got the Yankees as a playoff team, but it's more in the 88-92 win range than mid-90s. If both stars have major injuries, the win total will be much lower just as the gambling total will drop. For now, I was already bearish on the Yankees hitting their over so we'll keep them listed. 

Chicago Cubs OVER 84.5

The Cubs won 83 games last year while underplaying their run differential by seven wins. The only major offseason loss was Marcus Stroman and he basically gave the Cubs nothing after the middle of July (after July 15, he only worked 18 innings and had a 11.00 ERA). 

There are a few areas where I believe the Cubs will see internal improvement anyway, but I also feel like the difference between former manager David Ross and new manager Craig Counsell is enough to net a few extra wins and push the Cubs to the over here. Just as an example, and this isn't anything that can necessarily be measured, I've long felt that Counsell was an absolute maestro in dealing with his pitching staff while Ross was lacking in that department. 

Meanwhile, the Brewers got worse, the Cardinals might've gotten better (but they only won 71 last year) and the gains made by the Reds and Pirates are likely marginal, at least for me. 

I'm playing the Cubs over. Anyone accusing me of being a homer, just put your money where your mouth is and play the under. 

Tampa Bay Rays OVER 84.5

I took the Rays under last year and talked about how I was sure so many people would tell me it's foolish to ever bet against them (at least in the regular season). And they went absolutely nuts out of the gate and rendered my under ticket a worthless piece of virtual paper. 

Truth be told, I was ready to just ignore them in this exercise this season, because I'm absolutely done taking their under and I still just didn't believe in their roster. As I worked through the team preview, though, I found myself more and more convinced that the Rays will again be a major factor in the AL. The offense will be very similar to last season and this organization, as much as any other in baseball, should be trusted with the run prevention game. 

I'm not going to pick the Rays to win the AL East, but I've got them in a playoff spot and 85 wins is plenty workable. They'll get to the high-80s. 

Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 84.5

I'm just caught up in the postseason run, right? 

Nah, they deserve a play. The Snakes won 84 games last season and while they had a negative-15 run differential, there are plenty of reasons to believe we shouldn't be expecting this to contribute to a regular-season backslide in 2024. First off, the bullpen was an absolute mess for a decent portion of the regular season, but things really settled in late and it's a similar group to the one we saw throwing well for much of the playoffs. 

The rotation for a lot of last season was Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and pray for rain, but rookie Brandon Pfaadt grew as the year progressed and now Eduardo Rodríguez is in the house. That's a solid top four. 

Offensively, some power has been added in the likes of Joc Pederson and Eugenio Suárez while there's room for growth from youngsters Gabriel Moreno and Alek Thomas. Corbin Carroll is a superstar and Ketel Marte is still within the age range where he could play like a star. And then there's rookie Jordan Lawlar, who could stick and add an extra dimension. 

Further, the Giants are unremarkable and the Padres lost their best position player, best pitcher and closer from an 82-win team. The D-backs won't win the NL West, but they are the second-best team and will work up into the high-80s in wins. 

Miami Marlins UNDER 77.5

The Marlins were one of the worst playoff teams we've ever seen last season. They were 84-78, but had a negative-57 run differential and were spurred by some incredible fortune in toss-up games (33-14 in one-run games and 7-3 in extra innings). They were dead last in the NL in runs scored and they only added a possibly cooked Tim Anderson this winter. Yes, the Josh Bell and Jake Burger additions were midseason last year while Jazz Chisholm was hurt, but they also lost Jorge Soler and it remains an overall uninspiring bunch. 

The pitching is where the Marlins are strong, but they'll be doing it without ace and former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, who will miss the entire season after an October Tommy John surgery. 

With a bad offense and thin bullpen, how much heavy lifting can the young -- and, yes, incredibly talented -- rotation do here? I'm guessing it'll be enough to resemble a contender for a little bit, but not past the trade deadline. Then they'll offload some veterans. 

They'll win around 73-75 games. 

Boston Red Sox UNDER 77.5

The Red Sox getting to that 78th win last season, finally, on the last day of the season after an 8-19 September, clinched me a winning record in my totals plays. I've got them falling short this season. I do think -- as I pointed out in the team preview -- that the offense can be high-powered, but the pitching staff is bad. 

In light of the Lucas Giolito injury news, it doesn't seem like the Red Sox are looking to do anything significant to replace him and that's a red flag. Ownership appears content to have the team flail this season. 

Fortunately for the Red Sox, the schedule isn't overly unbalanced anymore. Unfortunately for the Red Sox, they are still playing the Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays and Orioles 13 times apiece. That's a brutally tough division. 

Add everything up and 78 wins is a tall order. Something in the ballpark of 75 is more likely.