The odds improve for the Blue Jays and AL East rivals with injury to Yankees ace Gerrit Cole

The best-case scenario would see Cole return to a big-league mound at some point in May or June. It’s possible he will be out a lot longer than that. The Yankees apparently won’t know more until they get another diagnosis. 

Even if Cole were to miss the minimum, the Yankees’ odds at winning the division take a serious hit. A lengthier absence would have a similar impact on the wild-card race. That means the path to the post-season just became easier to navigate for the Orioles, Rays and Blue Jays.

The Yankees rotation looks a bit shaky without Cole. Marcus Stroman is the leading candidate to start opening day but he’s more suited to be a No. 3 than an ace. Carlos Rodon and Nestor Cortes are coming off injury-plagued years that resulted in fewer than 65 innings apiece. Clarke Schmidt threw a career-high 159.

There’s upside in that group, but there’s even more risk, which led to immediate speculation about how the Yankees would respond to Cole’s injury. One option was taken off the board Wednesday evening when the White Sox traded their ace, Dylan Cease, to the Padres. Other options, such as Blake Snell and former Yankee Jordan Montgomery, remain available through free agency.

Whoever replaces Cole won’t be as good as the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner. And if the Yankees intend on contending, it will have to be on the back of their potent lineup. Concerns exist there too. Aaron Judge was recently shut down because of soreness in his abs and, while the five-time all-star claims he’ll be ready by opening day, he might not be at 100 per cent.

Judge missed 56 games last season and, without him, the Yankees didn’t stand a chance. Even after acquiring Juan Soto, that likely will be the case again, especially if they don’t have Cole regularly stealing wins. This is a good baseball team but not the same threat it was a few weeks ago.

If the Yankees can’t take the division, who will? The obvious choice is the Orioles, the reigning champions who won 101 games last season. They have even more talent following an off-season trade for ace Corbin Burnes and with the expected arrival of top prospect Jackson Holliday.

The Orioles aren’t without flaws. Promising starter Kyle Bradish will begin the season on the injured list because of a sore right elbow. Félix Bautista, last year’s closer, is out for the year recovering from Tommy John surgery. In his place is Craig Kimbrel, a capable veteran yet not nearly as dominant. 

Projection formulas used by reputable sources such as FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus penalize the Orioles for last year’s weak run differential and abnormally high production with runners in scoring position. Both outlets predicted a fourth-place finish for the Orioles. From this vantage point, they remain the team to beat.

It has become an annual tradition to write off the Rays after they dump some of their best players and replace them with prospects. Then the season starts and players you’ve never heard of before start barrelling toward the playoffs. They haven’t missed the post-season since 2018 and there’s a good chance they’ll be back again, despite another round of departures.

Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot were traded to the Dodgers. Ace Shane McLanahan is out for the season as he continues to recover from Tommy John surgery. Projected starter Taj Bradley was recently shut down because of a pectoral injury. But somehow the Rays and their seventh-ranked minor-league system, per Baseball America, will replace them and win a lot of games.

The Red Sox are barely worth a mention. Their biggest addition of the winter has already proven to be a bust after it was announced Lucas Giolito will miss the entire season. Boston only won 78 games last season and no longer has Justin Turner, Chris Sale, Alex Verdugo, James Paxton and Adam Duvall around to help out.

Even if the Red Sox were able to land reported target Jordan Montgomery in free agency, they don’t have nearly enough talent to contend. It would be a surprise if they finished outside of last place.

The Jays are still underdogs in the AL East but, as the injuries continue to pile up across the league, their odds of winning a wild card for a third consecutive year have greatly improved.

And, sure, the Jays have health concerns of their own. Kevin Gausman is questionable to start the year on time following general shoulder fatigue, Alek Manoah has been ruled out because of a shoulder issue of his own and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was recently scratched because of a knee issue. Other ailments will follow, they always do.

That’s the kind of stuff that will keep a front office up at night, but it pales in comparison to what’s happening with the Yankees. The pessimism surrounding the Jays that existed throughout much of the off-season has been at least temporarily replaced by the optimism of spring. Toronto has Cole’s wonky elbow to thank for that.