Part one of an occasional series
The need for nurses is everywhere — in local hospitals, clinics, schools and retirement communities. But, according to Texas Health & Human Services, demand for nurses in the state and in Bell County will soon be far greater than the supply, and that trend is expected to grow until at least 2032.
Nurses play a vital role in America’s health care system — caring for patients bedside, bringing compassion to the patients and their families, and educating people in how to avoid illnesses.
But, the role of nurses has expanded greatly in recent years. New technologies and treatments have created the need for new knowledge and increased skills.
While Temple-area hospitals are not immune to the nursing shortage, health care systems such as Baylor Scott & White Health have taken great strides to keep a flow of new and experienced nurses.
“Statewide, Baylor Scott & White has 5,000 nursing students from about 20 nursing programs in its system,” said Dr. Leslie Gembol, chief nursing officer for BSW-Temple. “In Temple, we get most of our nursing students from Temple College and the University of Mary Hardin-Baylor.
“We also started a program in 2021 to bring in experienced international nurses to Temple,” she said. “So far, we’ve brought in about 250 nurses with this program.”
Texas Health & Human Services says there are 73,779 licensed vocational nurses in the state today, almost exactly the number state health officials say are needed. But this year, according to the agency, marks a turnaround — the start of what soon will be a massive deficit of LVNs in the state.
In 2020, the supply of LVNs in Texas was almost 71,000, but according to a THHS study, actual demand was only 66,319, giving the state a surplus of 4,607 nurses. Each year, that surplus has shrunk and this month, that surplus is a mere 21 LVNs statewide, according to the report.
Beginning in 2026, the state health agency sees the beginning of a string of deficit years that starts with an unmet demand of 1,261 LVNs in 2025 and reaches a peak shortage of 12,572 nurses by 2032.
The Central Texas region will be short 2,419 LVNs by 2032 — only North Texas and the Gulf Coast regions will have larger deficits. The Panhandle, West Texas, South Texas, East Texas and the Rio Grande Valley all are expected to have surpluses of LVNs in 2032.
The supply of registered nurses in Texas has been bleak since 2020, the report said. This year, there are 254,379 registered nurses in Texas, but that’s 34,973 nurses short of the 289,352 needed. The shortage is expected to grow to 41,293 by 2027 and to 57,012 by 2032.
Curiously, according to Texas Health & Human Services numbers, the future for nurse practitioners is far more positive than either LVN or RN outlooks.
In 2020, Texas had 24,854 nurse practitioners, a surplus of 4,676 over the actual need. And while the need for more RNs and LVNs is expected to dwindle significantly through 2032, the state is expected to have a growing surplus of nurse practitioners.
In 2032, the state is expected to have a surplus of nearly 20,000 nurse practitioners. That’s good news because a growing number of nurse practitioners are seeing patients because of dwindling doctor numbers and a soaring Texas population. Many doctors are aging and retirements are outpacing the number of new doctors being trained.
While Temple-area hospitals are not immune to the nursing crunch that is gripping the nation and state, healthcare systems such as Baylor Scott & White and the VA have taken strategic steps to ensure a full nursing staff to care for patients.
Coming Monday: Creative plans help Baylor Scott & White and the VA keep strong nursing staffs.
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