Cool front for South Florida won't be its last even with the first day of spring here

Winter makes another sally into South Florida this week with a fever-breaking cool front to ease temperatures that have felt more like deep summer than March.

After two days of record-tying 90-degree heat Sunday and Monday at Palm Beach International Airport, highs on the astronomical first day of spring should remain in the low 70s with an overnight chill that could dip into the upper 50s.

The daytime mercury should remain in the 70s through Saturday, although it may inch closer to 80 toward the end of the week.

And although the Northern Hemisphere tilts toward spring on Tuesday when the sun crosses the equator, there may be hints of winter yet to come. Meteorological spring began March 1.

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“I wouldn’t say this is our last cool front,” said Nick Carr, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Miami. “As we head toward the latter part of March, temperatures will be near or below normal for the time of year.”

Carr said at least two more cool fronts are possible this month, keeping temperatures more seasonal and less like July.

Sunday’s 90-degree temperature in West Palm Beach tied the 2001 record set for that day. Monday also reached 90 degrees, tying the record set for that day in 1953. Fort Lauderdale and Miami broke heat records Monday reaching 92 and 91 degrees, respectively.

Carr said Monday may end up being the warmest through the rest of the month with a cool front expected Saturday.

“Behind that system there’s another reinforcing shot of dry, coolish air,” Carr said.

This week, the NWS office in Tallahassee said the cold front could lead to patchy frost in some areas where temperatures may bottom out in the mid-30s. Jacksonville meteorologists are also forecasting wind chill temperatures near freezing in areas away from the coast.

“It’s going to be below normal, a return to chilly temperatures, but it’s not close to record-breaking cold,” said Tallahassee-based NWS meteorologist Wright Dobbs about the cold front.  

So far this month, West Palm Beach is 3 degrees warmer than normal, according to the Southeast Regional Climate Center.

The March warmth comes after a December through February that averaged a temperature of 68.3 degrees. While that is near normal, it was the coldest winter in West Palm Beach since 2010-2011.

Carr said the periodic climate pattern El Niño contributed to the normal winter temperatures with more cloud cover to temper sun-driven heat.

The cooler temperatures, however, come with a climate-change caveat, said Florida climatologist David Zierden this month.

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In the past, El Niño typically meant winters marked by below-average temperatures. West Palm Beach has felt warmer-than-normal winters since 2010-2011, even during the strong El Niño event of 2015-2016.

"So, this year, with the background influenced by climate change, instead of cooler than normal, we are getting near-normal temperatures," Zierden said in a March 4 interview. "Even with the increased cloudiness and rainfall impacting temperatures, they were just down to near normal."

The Climate Prediction Center’s three-month outlook shows Florida with equal chances being warmer or cooler than normal through May.

“Late March is when we start really transitioning into spring where the cold fronts are less frequent, less robust and start to stall,” Carr said.

That also can mean an increase in storms that produce hail as temperatures warm at the surface, but frigid air remains in the higher reaches of the atmosphere.

For spring breakers, this week is forecast to be mostly sunny with high pressure overhead. By Saturday, chances of widespread showers and possible thunderstorms increase with another cool front. Rip current risks at the beaches increase Tuesday and may remain higher through the end of the week.

Kimberly Miller is a veteran journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate and how growth affects South Florida's environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. Help support our local journalism, subscribe today.