Climate change could shape the 2024 election. Which candidates should you keep an eye on?

Climate Change

FILE - The sun sets behind wind turbines on a farm, Feb. 28, 2024, in Prairie Township, Ind. In campaigns for Congress and for governor around the country, candidates are talking about how green the grid should be (AP Photo/Kiichiro Sato, File)AP

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Over the last two years, Americans have witnessed a series of record-shattering and destructive climate and weather phenomena. From unprecedented and deadly heatwaves on land and sea to devastating wildfires, relentless droughts, and storms that brought deadly rain and flooding, communities have been tested.

Last year, the U.S. experienced 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disasters, a record in the 44 years such data has been collected. The ripple effects of these disasters and climate extremes that caused them go beyond scientific study, permeating every aspect of American life.

Including politics.

President Donald Trump took the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement within months of his inauguration. By contrast, President Joe Biden rejoined the agreement on his first day in office, signaling the dawn of an administration that many view as the most environmentally forward in history.

Once a politically bipartisan issue, climate change and the environment have become polarizing, significant enough to sway election outcomes.

“We project that climate change opinion probably cost Republicans the 2020 presidential election, all else being equal,” noted a 2024 University of Colorado study.

It will play a role again.

With tiny majorities in the GOP-controlled House and the Democrat-run Senate, many of the remaining primaries and the upcoming general election will see dozens of eco-friendly candidates attempt to tip the scales in Congress.

Here are eight pro-environment incumbents and political newcomers to look out for in upcoming primaries and November’s election.

U.S. Senate:

Arizona: Current U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) hopes to take the hotly challenged U.S. Senate seat that Democrat-turned-Independent Sen. Krysten Sinema will vacate. The Democratic state primary takes place on July 30. Rep. Gallego has a 97% lifetime environmental voting record, according to the League of Conservation Voters, a Washington D.C.-based environmental advocacy group.

The former U.S. Marine has made the environment one of his top priorities, promising to deal with the state’s bad pollution problem and work with Tribal governments to preserve natural resources.

Florida: Former U.S. Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) is challenging incumbent Sen. Rick Scott (R) for his U.S. Senate seat. She must first navigate the Democratic primary on Aug. 20. Her lifetime environmental voting score is 98%.

As a U.S. House Rep., Mucarsel-Powell secured $200 million to help protect the state’s environment, including the Everglades. She has promised to help build climate-resilient infrastructure in Florida, one of the states most impacted by climate change.

Montana: U.S. Sen. Jon Tester’s seat is threatened as he prepares for the state’s June 4 primary and November general election. The 67-year-old is aiming for a fourth term and is the only Democrat who holds statewide office in Montana. The League of Conservation Voters gave him a 75% environmental voting score for 2023; his lifetime score is 89%. His environmental rhetoric is moderate, noting that he wants to tap into Montana’s energy resources, including renewable energy and coal. He also supported the Keystone XL Pipeline project and has sponsored bipartisan legislation that would reverse President Biden’s decision to cancel the permit.

He wants to build on Montana’s energy economy, which secures high-paying jobs and addresses the threat of climate change.

Texas: U.S. Rep. Colin Allred (D) will face incumbent U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (R) in the general election on Nov. 5. Allred, a Texas native, has a strong environmental record since becoming a U.S. House Representative in 2019. The League of Conservation Voters scores his lifetime environmental voting record at 98%. He has promised to protect the environment, combat climate change, and lower energy costs while continuing to support responsible oil and gas production.

U.S. House:

Arizona 1st Congressional District: Challenger Andrei Cherny is not quite a political newcomer. He was chair of the Arizona Democratic Party from 2011 to 2012 before co-founding an eco-friendly financial firm in California. The first-generation American hopes to challenge incumbent U.S. Rep. David Schweikert (R) is one of the nation’s most competitive districts. Cherny will first have to win the state’s Democratic primary on July 30. Rep. Schweikert narrowly won the seat in 2022 by less than 1%. Cherny said his alternative bank, Aspiration, promises not to invest deposits in fossil fuels and plant trees to offset carbon emissions.

Arizona 6th Congressional District: Kirsten Engel is an environmental lawyer and former member of the Arizona Senate. She hopes to challenge incumbent U.S. Rep. Juan Ciscomani (R), a repeat of the close 2022 race for the district seat, which her rival won by slightly more than 1%. The Democratic primary is on July 30.

Engel said she would tackle the water and climate crisis that threatens southern Arizona. While serving in the Arizona legislature, she was part of the Colorado Drought Contingency Plan. She supports clean energy and lowering utility bills.

California 41st Congressional District: In California’s nonpartisan primary, incumbent U.S. House Rep. Ken Calvert (R) finished above political newcomer Will Rollins, allowing them both to advance to November’s election. Rollins is a former federal prosecutor in Southern California. He said he wants to take decisive action on climate change to protect the state’s tourism, construction, and agriculture businesses and communities and create a clean energy economy.

New York 3rd Congressional District: U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi (D) is the incumbent after winning a special election on Feb. 13 to take over from disgraced former U.S. Rep. George Santos. The primary takes place on June 25. Rep. Suozzi received over $700,000 from the League of Conservative Voters Victory Fund and has helped clean up superfund sites on Long Island and secured federal funds for water quality infrastructure projects.

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