Nobody asked, but here’s a quick look behind the scenes of how things work here … which will all make sense in a minute. This column is a bit of a group effort, with two editors asking several questions every week to our wonderfully agreeable experts, Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi. In the process of looking for headline elements before publishing, we check Google Trends, just to see if there’s some term (“race” vs. “odds,” for example) to throw in there to get more eyeballs on this invaluable information and advice. This week’s check was … wow.
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The hottest story in NASCAR at the moment is the “moonshine cave” that was supposedly revealed by a sinkhole at the North Wilkesboro Speedway. The catch is that the more you read, the more you discover that it’s really just a kind of normal cave with no evidence whatsoever of a still. “We don’t know how people would have gotten in and out,” admits Steve Swift, SVP of operations and development at Speedway Motorsports. We smell an early April Fool’s joke… maybe? (PSA: April Fool’s is in a couple days. Ready yourselves.)
The second most popular search term is “2008 Richmond NASCAR race,” and if you Google that on its own, guess what pops up? A rich and fun oral history from a site we all know and love — JeffGluck.com. As the people behind the weekly NOOB Question, we (the editors) have no idea why a race from 16 years ago is trending, and we don’t want to bother Jeff and Jordan in the middle of the night with yet another question (we once asked if we should buy a 3″ x 5″ piece of Rajah Caruth’s car on eBay, for instance), so let’s all just assume it was mentioned on a popular program somewhere and call it a day.
Anyway, this isn’t meant to be a recap of all the hot search terms related to “NASCAR” this week in a clever stunt to get more clicks, but the extra topics caught our eye and brought us to a couple of interesting stories that we thought were worth flagging, as we jump into our Richmond preview…
1. In your Top 5 after COTA, you talked about the impact of a race with no yellow flags. Richmond used to be known as “The Action Track,” but in the past couple of decades, it’s been tamer with long green-flag runs, etc. What are your thoughts about the Richmond track, its entertainment value and how drivers approach strategy?
Jeff: We fought against this notion for a long time, but there’s clearly no escaping it now: Richmond is no longer what we think of as a traditional action-filled short track race but a total strategy race that comes down to tire wear and long green-flag runs. Perhaps that knowledge will help going into it, since it lowers the expectations for any sort of on-track clashes. But if NASCAR is hoping to pull in a casual fan to its Easter Sunday night race, Richmond certainly doesn’t seem like the place. This is more of a race for the hardcore fans who appreciate strategy (and even some of them don’t).
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Jordan: (Long sigh.) Richmond’s transformation from being the “Action Track” and one of the more popular stops on the circuit to its current form as a strategy-heavy track is unfortunate. A popular question surrounding each Richmond race is whether it will ever revert back to its previous state, though the likelihood of this happening seems to diminish with each passing year. But to be clear, though, this doesn’t mean Richmond is a dull track, per se, just that they’re now different.
2. William Byron snagged his second win of the season at COTA. (You also interviewed him last week — great timing!) For Byron, it’s been hot and cold this season: Do you think he’ll find more consistency going forward? Should we expect Byron dominance?
Jeff: Shockingly, Byron only has two career top-10 finishes in 11 starts at Richmond. It prompted his crew chief, Rudy Fugle, to declare that Richmond and the following race at Martinsville (also a short track) are “circled big-time” to try and win. Said Fugle: “We have not been good at Richmond. We have not been good at Martinsville. We need to be. Right away. That’s all we’re focused on right now.” Bold words, but I’m not sure Byron can do it. He’ll still have a great season overall, but these next two weeks should tend to favor the Toyota drivers. Those are the cars that are going to show up with speed, particularly the foursome from Joe Gibbs Racing (Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell and Ty Gibbs).
Jordan: Byron has had speed most weeks but not the corresponding finishes to match. Expect him to begin stringing together top-five and top-10 finishes and to vault up the standings. As for his record at Richmond, while it hasn’t been great, let’s remember that he led the most laps here last spring and was in contention for the win until getting spun out late.
3. Another “dominance” question: Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing have won five of the six points races this season so far. Can anyone really challenge them at this point?
Jeff: Part of the problem is Ford is 0-for-6 this season so far with its new Dark Horse Mustang body. That’s been very disappointing, and defending Cup champ Ryan Blaney is really the only Ford driver consistently running well. So that leaves the powerhouse teams from the other two manufacturers, which are Hendrick and Gibbs. Yes, they can be challenged — but it’s going to take a hot-at-the-right-time playoff run to make it happen because a driver from one of those teams is almost certainly going to win the regular season title. After six races, Hendrick and JGR drivers hold six of the top seven spots in the point standings (Blaney being the exception).
Jordan: While it could happen — Blaney, Trackhouse’s Ross Chastain and 23XI Racing’s Tyler Reddick being the best candidates — it does feel like Hendrick and JGR have separated themselves from the pack to a significant degree. And in the case of JGR, its dominance may only expand as it better figures out its redesigned Toyota Camry. Once this happens, expect JGR to rack up a lot of wins.
4. Kyle Busch confronted COTA runner-up Christopher Bell after the two made contact during the race. Any extra motivation for Busch going into Richmond?
Jeff: Oh, it’s very possible. If Busch and Bell are racing close together at Richmond, it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Busch spin him out in order to exact some measure of revenge. That said, Busch gets along with Bell better than some of the other drivers he’s feuded with (Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski), so this shouldn’t be a lingering thing with ongoing bad blood. Busch owes Bell some payback, so if he gets it, that should be the end of it.
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Jordan: Something to keep in mind, for sure, especially since Richmond and next week’s race at Martinsville offer prime opportunities for Busch to extract some measure of payback.
5. Who will win at Richmond?
Jeff: As of this writing, the four JGR drivers are the top four in the odds. And yep, that makes sense to me. You’re not going to find amazing value by picking Hamlin or Bell, but Truex at +625 (at BetMGM) seems like pretty decent odds for a likely winner — and Gibbs at +1000 should be in contention for another top-three finish, if not the victory. Sure, you can make an argument Kyle Larson or Byron could get it done, but it feels like a JGR weekend at this point.
Jordan: Joe Gibbs Racing. Any of its four drivers could realistically dominate and win Sunday, to where if there was a way to bet on JGR vs. the field, a case could be made to wager on JGR.
6. Who do you like as a long shot this weekend?
Jeff: Alex Bowman’s odds seem insanely, unbelievably low (+5000) for a driver who could absolutely win the Richmond spring race (he just did it three years ago, after all). Bowman then finished eighth in back-to-back Richmond spring races and led eight laps early in last year’s event. This doesn’t feel like a longshot at all, and he’s also coming off of back-to-back fourth-place finishes this month.
Jordan: Even though he hasn’t won in some time, Chase Elliott at +1800 presents good value. So too does Ross Chastain at +2200. But this doesn’t feel like a week where a surprise winner emerges.
NOOB question of the week: Kyle Larson won the Xfinity race at COTA. What’s the point of that? Isn’t his racing there kind of like Aaron Judge going to the minors and hitting homers and taking a spot away from someone who needs the development?
Jeff: You’ve touched on the lifelong, ongoing, endless debate for NASCAR fans. One of the first NASCAR columns I ever wrote — actually, it might have been the first — was a 2004 piece on why the Cup drivers shouldn’t be allowed to race in the “minor leagues” of the Xfinity (then Busch) Series. Because as a general sports fan before I got into NASCAR, it absolutely seemed like what you described with Aaron Judge (actually, that argument was made so long ago, I think Barry Bonds may have been my example). And that take is still valid in many ways. But now that NASCAR has limited the Cup drivers to five starts per season in the lower series (and they aren’t allowed to participate in any of the playoff races), it’s made things more palatable when a driver like Larson comes down to play. After all, it’s one thing when there are a few Cup stars in the field; it’s another when there are 15 Cup drivers in the race, and some of them are even running full-time for points in the lower series (that used to happen!). But for Larson, he got some valuable track time and picked up a win, so he’s certainly not complaining. And for what it’s worth, a lot of the lower series drivers enjoy racing against the Cup guys because it helps them improve and see where they measure up in their quest to reach the big time.
(Top photo: James Gilbert / Getty Images; pic of Denny Hamlin at COTA: Jonathan Bachman / Getty Images; pic of Alex Bowman walking with two people admiring him: James Gilbert / Getty Images)