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The cryptocurrency market is experiencing a decline as the global market cap has dropped by 5.96% in the past day. The price of Ethereum decreased by 6.65% and is now trading under $4000, as BNB, Dogecoin, and Shiba Inu (SHIB) also experienced significant drops in their prices. The market crash is partially due to the impact of the Bitcoin price, which dropped by 8.7% from its record high of $73,750.07 just one day earlier. Bitcoin price is currently at $67,671.56, marking a 7.18% decrease in the last 24 hours. Let’s dig deeper to uncover what’s going on.
Several factors pushed down BTC prices.
The decline in Bitcoin prices is attributed to the higher-than-expected inflation, specifically on the Producer Price Index (PPI) reported by the US. In February, the PPI index, which includes raw material prices that determine selling prices, rose by 0.6%, higher than the predicted 0.3%. The unexpected increase in inflation is probably being closely monitored by the Federal Reserve at their March meeting. The PPI inflation information is important because it directly affects purchasing power, and overall inflation patterns, and impacts the Federal Reserve’s interest rate choices. At first, the market was let down as it waited for an expected decrease in interest rates. However, the pressure of inflation persists. With the diminishing likelihood of low rates persisting for an extended period, market sentiment has decreased. This resulted into Bitcoin. investors adjusting their investment portfolios, leading to a price correction in the cryptocurrency.
The decline in Bitcoin prices is also attributed to a significant liquidation event. According to Coinglass data, $241.9 million were liquidated, out of which $194.1 million were long positions being liquidated within 24 hours. This widespread liquidation activity, totaling $680.04 million, affected 193,268 traders. The largest single liquidation order happened on OKX – BTC-USDT-SWAP valued at $13.30M. Ethereum reported approximately $95 million worth of long liquidations.
Additionally, the market sentiment had been affected, being the second time in three days for BTC price to trade below $70,000 mark. Heightened on-chain transaction volume suggest an increased activity on the network, while a lower number of holders could indicate capitulation.
Rekt Capital, a crypto analyst and trader asserts that Bitcoin is gradually drawing closer to the critical “Danger Zone” (orange), where previous instances of Pre-Halving Retraces have began. Throughout history, Bitcoin has exhibited these retraces within a timeframe of 14-28 days before the Halving event. At present, Bitcoin is positioned 33 days away from the impending halving in mid-April 2024.
The expected miner sell-off before the halving could potentially push the coin lower, leading to concerns about a potential crash in the coming weeks.
Miners, who receive Bitcoin rewards for verifying transactions, often sell portions of their holdings to manage revenue fluctuations after halving. This selling pressure could impact the price of Bitcoin as miners look to lock in profits, diversify their assets, or invest in their mining infrastructure to remain competitive. The “Danger Zone” is a time-based region that historically triggers significant price pullbacks, unwinding gains, and raising caution among investors.
Bitcoin is slowly approaching the "Danger Zone" (orange) where historical Pre-Halving Retraces have begun
Historically, Bitcoin has performed Pre-Halving Retraces 14-28 days before the Halving
Currently, Bitcoin is 33 days away from the Halving$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin pic.twitter.com/7deaAdlrj6
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) March 14, 2024
With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting approaching on March 20, traders are bracing for potential volatility. Risk reversals indicate a cautious sentiment, with demand for BTC call options suggesting bullish expectations by year-end. Despite short-term sell-off possibilities, analysts believe they won’t impact the long-term uptrend, especially with sustained demand for daily spot BTC ETFs. According to SoSoValue data, Bitcoin ETF daily inflows hit a low in March, with significant movements observed in spot ETFs, including notable outflows from Grayscale’s ETF GBTC and inflows into BlackRock’s IBIT ETF.
Additionally, market sentiment is shifting, with declining implied volatility and weakening direction in block options orders, resembling a cooling phase before a potential bull market starts.
CrediBULL Crypto, a crypto analyst, has observed a recent drop in prices in the market, leading to a decrease in Open Interest (OI). Despite this decline, the analyst believes there is still potential for further downward movement before reaching a presumed baseline. The analyst has identified a support level between 63,000 and 64,000 USD, known as the “green zone,” where a bounce or price reversal could potentially take place. This range is seen as a logical area for a shift in market dynamics, possibly aligning with the elimination of remaining OI buildup.
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