US Economy News Today: Housing Market Could Be Thawing Going Into Spring Busy Season

Mortgage Rates Dip, Sparking Hope Inventory is Sustainably Improving

Mortgage rates continued to move below the 7% level this week, a good sign that more homes could be for sale soon as rates could continue to move lower, according to Freddie Mac. 

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined to 6.79%, slipping from last week’s 6.87%.  The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage was also lower, dropping to 6.11% this week. Since December, mortgage rates have see-sawed under 7%.

“Rates remain elevated near 7% as markets watch for signs of cooling inflation, hoping that rates will come down further,” Khatner said. 

Freddie Mac Chief Economist Sam Khatner pointed to “encouraging” data showing existing home sales jumped in February. That was an improvement from last year when inventory problems stymied the home sales market as mortgage rates moved to decades-high levels. 

-Terry Lane

Consumer Views on the Economy Are Stabilizing

In its final reading for March, consumer sentiment surged ahead of economists' projections but remained relatively steady throughout the first quarter of 2024.

The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index moved up to 79.4 in March, up from the prior reading of 76.9. However, that's within the margin of error, showing that opinions on the economy have been mostly locked in since January, said survey director Joanne Hsu. Consumer sentiment is nearly 30% higher than year-ago levels. 

“This stability reflects a perception among consumers that the economy has been holding steady in its current state,” Hsu said. 

Consumers also felt better about inflation, the survey showed. Their expectations for price increases moderated for both the year ahead and the long run. Consumer survey results on both current economic conditions and economic expectations improved. 

“Assessments and expectations of personal finances improved modestly from last month, as the perceived negative effects of high prices and expenses on living standards eased,” Hsu said. 

-Terry Lane

Home Sale Contracts Ticked Up In February As Housing Market Thaw Continued

It’s not saying much, but 2024 is shaping up to be a better year for the housing market than 2023 was, according to new data on pending home sales.

There were 1.6% more sales for existing homes in the pipeline in February than in January, based on contract signings that month, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

If that forward-looking indicator translates into actual home sales, it would continue this year’s trend of home sales bouncing back from the rock-bottom levels they hit in 2023. High mortgage rates, low for-sale inventories, and record prices combined to stifle homebuying last year to its slowest pace since 1995.

Two of those three factors have improved since late last year—the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has hovered in the high 6% range after nearing 8% late last fall, according to Freddie Mac. As a result, more homes have come on the market, the association said.

The job market is still favorable to workers despite a recent slowdown, keeping some buyers in the market no matter how unaffordable it’s become.

"While modest sales growth might not stir excitement, it shows slow and steady progress from the lows of late last year,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun in a press release. “Ongoing job gains are clearly increasing demand along with more inventory.”

Despite the uptick, home sales still face massive headwinds—pending home sales were still down 7% compared to February 2023, the association said. 

Economy Grew Faster Than Thought In Fourth Quarter

Consumer spending is once again propelling the economy at a faster pace than initial estimates indicated.

With all the data from the fourth quarter now in, it turns out the U.S. economy—as measured by inflation-adjusted Gross Domestic Product—grew at an annual rate of 3.4% in the fourth quarter of 2023, faster than the prior estimate of 3.2%, the Bureau of Economic Analysis said Thursday in its third and final revision of the quarter’s data.

The increase, due to upward revisions in estimates of consumer spending, beat forecasters’ expectations for 3.2% annual growth, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones Newswires and the Wall Street Journal. Figures for nonresidential fixed investment—things like business equipment—also increased, offsetting a downward revision for how much businesses built up their inventories, trends that could set the stage for more growth down the road.  

“There is plenty to like in the upward revision to Q4 U.S. real GDP growth as stronger consumer spending and slower inventory build pave the way more favorably for growth early this year,” Ryan Sweet, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, wrote in a commentary.

The 3.4% annual growth rate was a slowdown from the blockbuster 4.9% growth of the third quarter but still underscored how consumer spending, the beating heart of the U.S. economy, has stayed solid despite punishingly high interest rates. Resilient consumer spending has helped stave off a long-predicted recession amid the Federal Reserve’s anti-inflation interest rate hikes, at least so far.

The Fed’s efforts to cool inflation—and the economy—with the highest interest rates since 2001 haven’t slowed business down as much as many economists had initially feared. Inflation is still running above the central bank’s target of a 2% annual rate, and data including the GDP shows the economy running hotter than expected. Because of this, some economists are bracing for the war on inflation to drag on at least through the end of the year, with interest rates staying higher for longer.

Initial Jobless Claims Fell Slightly Last Week

Fewer people filed for unemployment insurance in the week ending March 23 than they did the week before.

Initial jobless claims were down 2,000 people from the revised numbers from the prior week to 210,000. The four-week average, which is less volatile than the weekly number, was down 750.

These numbers still are historically low, indicating that the labor market remains strong in the face of high interest rates.

"The Fed doesn't require significant weakening in the labor market to begin cutting interest rates but needs to be confident the job market is balanced enough to support a continued slowing in wage growth," wrote Oxford Eocnomics' Nancy Vanden Houten.