This combo image shows President Joe Biden (left) and Republican presidential candidate former President Donald Trump. File/Associated Press

Four out of five US citizens do not favour a Biden-Trump rematch in November’s presidential election and do not want either to win the presidency for a second term. This is the first contest between a sitting president and his predecessor in nearly 70 years. The majority feels incumbent Joe Biden, 81, is too old and that Trump, 77, is too erratic and impulsive. A USA/Suffolk University opinion poll, conducted from March 8-11 — found Trump, at 40 per cent, was slightly ahead of Biden at 38 per cent. But numbers could change in the next seven months. The two top issues are the economy and immigration.  It is beginning to dawn on US voters that the economy — sluggish under Trump and faltering due to Covid — has been improving under Biden. The latest polls conducted by USA/Suffolk University showed that 33 per cent of respondents recognised that the economy is picking up.

Despite his low popularity rate and his failure to launch an early, effective campaign, Biden had no problem winning the Democrat Party’s nomination.  Biden’s approval rating is 44 per cent, disapproval rating 55 per cent. Nevertheless, he has the support of 81 per cent of Democrats with 14 per cent scattered among third-party candidates and five per cent undecided. Fifty-four per cent would vote for him, 41 per cent against Trump. Trump can count on 85 per cent of Republicans; 74 per cent for him, 22 per cent against Biden. His approval-disapproval ratings are 49 per cent and 47 per cent. Eighty-five per cent of Trump voters vowed to stick by him even if he is indicted in one or more of his multiple court cases.

Polls indicate the race will be tight and decided by a handful of swing states. Biden had seven million more popular votes and 74 more Electoral College votes than Trump in 2020.The Trump and Biden victories were decided by 5-7 “swing states” which shift from one party to the other during elections.  The current “swing states” are Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Wisconsin. Previous races demonstrated that these states can be won by small margins of votes. In 2020, Biden won six of the seven, Trump one: North Carolina. Since Israel launched its deadly and devastating war on Gaza, Michigan’s voters of Arab ethnicity have been sharply critical of Biden’s endorsement of Israel’s actions and more than 100,000 wrote “uncommitted” on the Democrat party’s primary ballot. It is not clear what they will do in November.  This could depend on what Biden does to obtain a ceasefire and deliveries of humanitarian aid for Gaza. Unlike Trump, who began energetically campaigning for re-election before he left the White House in 2021, Biden has not spelled out his plans if he wins another four years.

He has called on voters to “let him get the job done.” This involves expanding access to child care, lowering the price of medications, building community colleges, protecting the right to vote for Black and Hispanic communities, punishing police misconduct, and banning assault rifles. To implement these programmes, he needs Democrat majorities in both houses of Congress or bipartisan support which will never be granted by Trump’s Republican Party stalwarts. Biden will continue to support NATO, the Ukraine war effort, and Israel’s brutal war on Gaza. 

Ahead of his formal nomination, Donald Trump took over and remade the Republican National Committee (RNC). He slashed 60 jobs, including senior positions in the party’s Washington headquarters and local community centres where he demands staff “get out the vote” rather than court relations with Black and Latino groups. He appointed his daughter-in law Lara Trump co-charman and other loyalists to top-most RNC ranks. His “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) supporters are now in full control of the Republican Party and merged it into his campaign organisation. If he wins the White House, Trump is determined to avoid the chaos and dissonance of the beginning of his first term when his worst initiatives were reigned in by officials seen as the “adults in the room.” He has made plans to conduct a major government overhaul and has hired hatchet men and women to carry out this enterprise.  He would try to deny protections to thousands of career bureaucrats who have resisted political interference. Trump intends to revive a 2020 executive order which would allow him to reclassify employees, particularly in the justice system and security organisations.  

He would deliver on his campaign pledge to “stop the invasion of our southern border” And deport thousands of legal US residents, especially those with “jihadist sympathies” (Muslims) and students who do not subscribe to the US ethos, whatever that is. He would reinstate the travel ban he decreed during his first term on Muslims seeking to enter the US. He would deny US citizenship to children born in the US to parents who are illegal immigrants.

Trump would eliminate the national Department of Education, interfere in the hiring of  teachers across the country, and provide federal funding to schools which have a “patriotic” agenda.  He would arm teachers and school security staff.  Trump would direct state National Guards to crack down on protesters and order tough measures against crime in Washington, D.C. The importation of Chinese electronics, steel, and pharmaceuticals would be curbed and tariffs raised on Chinese and other imports.  The flow of US funds and weapons to Ukraine would end and Kyiv would be forced to negotiate peace with Russia, the US role in NATO would be reevaluated, and Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza would have Trump’s full backing. Trump promotes the election to Congress of MAGA backers who will adhere to his policies while Biden has to rely on centrist Democrats and court progressives if his programmes are to be adopted. The policies of both sides will depend on which party has the majority in both or one of the houses of the legislature. For either to get his programmes under way he will need the approval of the House of Representatives and/or the Senate.