Why the Supreme Court’s abortion pill ruling could hurt Republicans in November

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The Supreme Court is set to hear arguments in a case disputing access to a common abortion pill, which could change the tone of the November election.

The cases before the high court on Tuesday challenge the Food and Drug Administration‘s actions to expand the accessibility of mifepristone, including making the pill available via online order or mail delivery. It is the first major abortion case before the Supreme Court since the 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overruled Roe v. Wade and sent abortion law back to states to decide, and the decision could have a similar impact on elections as Dobbs.

The dispute made its way to the Supreme Court after a district judge decided to revoke the FDA’s approval of the drug, making headlines and causing uproar from some activists. An appeals court later upheld some restrictions on the pill imposed by the district court.

The court is likely to issue its decision in the case in June on whether to keep the original restrictions on the pill or allow the loosening of restrictions the FDA made in 2016. The restrictions would be federal, meaning they would apply nationwide rather than state by state.

A restriction in the pill’s access from the court’s decision could be as influential as Dobbs, Alexis McGill Johnson, president of the Planned Parenthood Action Fund, told the Washington Post.

“Going into the summer with a negative ruling by Trump’s Supreme Court essentially, I think, would turn the tide even more in stronger favor for the Biden-Harris administration,” Johnson said.

In 2022, the Dobbs decision was blamed as one of the factors for Republican underperformance in what was expected to be a “red wave” election. The GOP lost several key races nationwide as abortion was brought to the center of the national debate. One of the GOP’s worst losses came in Michigan, where an abortion measure was on the ballot alongside the gubernatorial election.

President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have made abortion a key part of their reelection pitch, and a ruling favoring the group of religious doctors who oppose chemical abortions could give Democrats additional fuel.

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Abortion measures could make their way to the ballot in several states in November, including Montana and Florida, which could affect races in those states.

A ruling in the case before the Supreme Court could have national implications and offer a lifeline to Biden, who has been trailing former President Donald Trump in various key swing states. Biden and Harris will be in North Carolina as the Supreme Court is set to hear arguments in the case.

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