Sherrod Brown, considered one of the most vulnerable U.S. Senate Democratic incumbents, has enjoyed widespread popularity for years in Mahoning and Trumbull counties.

But he may not get the needed support from the two counties, both former Democratic strongholds, in the Nov. 5 general election as he faces Bernie Moreno, the Republican nominee backed by former President Donald Trump. And Trump, who has won Ohio twice, will be at the top of the Republican ticket in the general election making it that much harder for Brown to get reelected.

Since Brown beat then-incumbent Mike DeWine in 2006 for the Republican’s Senate seat, a lot has changed in Ohio, including the Mahoning Valley.

Brown beat DeWine by 12.3% in 2006 and won big in Mahoning, getting 73.5% of the vote, and in Trumbull with 73.1% of the vote.

Brown won the two counties by a combined total of 81,579 votes. Overall, Brown won Ohio by 496,393 votes so Mahoning and Trumbull contributed 16.4% toward that margin of victory.

In 2012, a presidential election year, Brown outperformed President Barack Obama.

Obama, a Democrat, beat Republican Mitt Romney in Ohio by 3%, a 166,272-vote win.

Brown won reelection over Republican Josh Mandel, then the state treasurer, by 6%, 327,022 votes.

Again, Brown did great in Mahoning and Trumbull. He got 66.4% of the Mahoning vote and 62.6% of the Trumbull vote.

The vote totals from the two counties accounted for 22.3% of his overall statewide margin of victory.

Then Trump ran for the first time in 2016, winning Trumbull and coming close to victory in Mahoning.

Despite Trump’s popularity, the 2018 Senate race against Brown was a missed opportunity for Republicans.

Jim Renacci, then a congressman, won the Republican primary. While Trump backed Renacci, he didn’t campaign for him and the race was largely written off.

Brown won by 6.8%, barely better than he did against Mandel six years prior.

Brown’s victories in Mahoning, 60.4% of the vote, and Trumbull, 57.9% of the vote, were smaller than the two previous elections, but still solid.

Of Brown’s 301,960-vote win, 10.2% of it came from Mahoning and Trumbull. That percentage is considerably lower than Brown’s successes in the 2006 and 2012 elections.

Since then, Trump ran for reelection for president in 2020 and again won Ohio.

Trump was the first Republican presidential candidate to win Trumbull twice since Herbert Hoover in 1928 and 1936 before it became a reliable Democratic county.

He won Mahoning, becoming only the third Republican to do so in 84 years.

Republicans will pick up countywide seats in Mahoning and could dominate Trumbull in the general election with Trump as the presidential nominee again.

There is also little doubt that Trump will again win Mahoning and Trumbull.

Not only is that going to hurt Brown’s chances in the two counties, but Moreno — thanks to the Trump endorsement and being on the ballot with him — will be a serious threat.

During the March 19 Republican primary, Moreno won all 88 counties.

Moreno’s best percentages statewide were in Mahoning with 61.4% and Trumbull with 61.1%.

While you can’t fairly compare the results of a Republican primary to a general election, the results here should concern the Brown campaign. They can’t count on Mahoning and Trumbull to back him with huge percentages and it’s even possible he could lose here. If that happens, Moreno wins the Senate race.

No one should count out Brown.

Brown has longtime and deep ties to Mahoning and Trumbull, often visiting the counties and getting large sums of federal funding for the area for several years.

During a recent local stop, DeWine, now governor, said: “Sherrod Brown is not someone easy to beat. I know that myself, in my personal experiences. Look, it’s going to be a close race.”

Moreno’s campaign didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Brown’s campaign sent statements from Dave Green, United Auto Workers Region 2B director and the former head of Local 1112 in Lordstown, and Youngstown Mayor Jamael Tito Brown.

Green said: “Mahoning Valley workers know that Sherrod Brown always fights for us — from joining UAW members on the picket line to helping secure better wages for all workers,” and “this is why we will have his back in November.”

Brown said Brown “has always fought for the people of Youngstown and the Mahoning Valley,” and “the Valley will show up in November for Sen. Brown like he has always shown up for us.”

Have an interesting story? Contact David Skolnick by email at dskolnick@vindy.com. Follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @dskolnick