On Monday, March 18, in Kaolack, in western Senegal, Amadou Ba took to the stage to a rapturous welcome. Thousands of supporters cheered the candidate of the ruling Benno Bokk Yakaar (BBY, center) coalition. He had already been criss-crossing the country for 10 days, with a new zeal. Everywhere, the former prime minister, known for his restraint and impassivity, was lecturing the crowds. Alongside him, members of the government and senior officials took part in the festivities.
After weeks of crisis following the postponement of the presidential election initially scheduled for February 25 – during which Ba was heckled within his own camp – the BBY machine is finally up and running. With just a few days to go to the polls on Sunday March 24, the coalition and its many relays across the country are mobilized behind their champion. The competition promises to be fierce: The former head of government faces 18 candidates, including Bassirou Diomaye Faye, nominated by the opponent Ousmane Sonko, who has been rendered ineligible by a conviction.
If Ba can now count on his camp, it's because the president himself has ordered that the ranks be closed. This turnaround was decided on the night of March 12-13. That evening, on his way back from a rally in the holy city of Tivaouane, where BBY's leading figures were once again conspicuous by their absence, Ba headed for the presidential palace, canceling the Saint-Louis leg of the trip scheduled for after the fast had been broken.
More isolated than ever, the ruling candidate was due to meet Macky Sall. Had Sall ordered his troops to "let him go"? The question was on Ba's mind, all the more so as some media outlets had recently reported that the candidate had been replaced by Mahammed Boun Abdallah Dionne. Also a former prime minister, this long-standing companion of the president was, according to his supporters, the head of state's "choice of the heart" when it came to designating his successor. He was eventually rejected, and has since gone over to the opposition, while retaining a certain influence within the ruling Alliance pour la République (APR) party, which he co-founded.
This poisonous climate is worrying the majority. "It seemed clear that the anti-Ba defiance was if not nurtured, at least tolerated by the president. A handful of BBY coalition leaders, the president's eldest son and an eminent religious guide organized the nocturnal meeting so that the two men could talk," said an informal adviser to Sall.
"There was never any instruction from the president or the leaders to disassociate ourselves from our candidate," said BBY spokesman Pape Mahawa Diouf, for whom the tensions at the start of the campaign are linked to a concern for organization: "We were faced with an unprecedented transition problem. For the first time, an outgoing president was not a candidate for succession. Yet he is the head of the party and the coalition. And Amadou Ba didn't have control over his majority and his party, which complicated the management of the campaign."
'Small revolt'
A reframing was nevertheless necessary. The day after his meeting with Ba, the head of state convened a meeting of around 100 presidential party executives. Since then, at every rally, the heavyweights of the coalition have come out in fervent support of their candidate. This is proof that Sall remains the driving force behind the BBY machine. "The president had no choice. He realized that some of the coalition's leading figures thought his support for Amadou Ba was too timid. He was met with a small revolt," said Madiambal Diagne, journalist and biographer of Ba and Sall.
Will this support last? Nominated as a candidate after Sall renounced his controversial third term in office, Ba's appointment as prime minister in September 2022 sparked an outcry. Since then, some leading figures have continued to portray him as a "traitor," deeming him illegitimate to represent the coalition, notably because of his late joining of the APR. They also accuse this wealthy senior civil servant of having created a "clan within the clan."
The defiance almost turned into a settling of scores. In mid-January, Ba was accused by the opposition Parti Démocratique Sénégalais (PDS, center) of having bribed two Constitutional Council judges to eliminate his candidate, Karim Wade, and part of his camp turned against him. It was the MPs of his majority, allied by circumstance with the PDS, who voted to set up a parliamentary commission of inquiry and ratified the postponement of the presidential election. This unprecedented crisis plunged the country into uncertainty until the Constitutional Council intervened, imposing that the poll be held before the end of March.
Throughout this turbulent period, a number of leading figures kept up the pressure to get Ba's head. Among his most virulent rivals is the Minister of Tourism, Mame Mbaye Niang, who is close to the presidential couple. He is said to be the head of state's unofficial spokesman. For, despite his protégé's polemical outbursts, Sall has never straightened him out publicly.
"In private, the president never attacks Amadou Ba, but you can sense a certain distrust towards him. It's irrational. There's this contradiction in keeping him while letting his flunkies tear him down," said a palace insider. As for Ba, his sin has been his unwillingness to rally his camp. Even in this campaign, he has surrounded himself with his own team, some of whose members are not from the APR. Some are afraid of being excluded from the management of power in the event of victory."
An efficient duo
This ambivalence has hovered over relations between the two leaders for a decade. In 2013, Ba, former director of taxes and estates, joined the government. At the head of an expanded Ministry of Economy and Finance, he gained influence within the government and internationally, notably thanks to the Plan Sénégal Emergent (PSE), Sall's flagship economic development program.
The strong-willed president and his level-headed minister formed an effective duo. It was the latter who oversaw negotiations and the release of funds from foreign partners. In France, he forged close relationships with his counterparts in the finance department and with major employers. This network aroused suspicion in the palace. In 2019, his powerful ministry was split in two. He was exfiltrated to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The post enabled him to strengthen his diplomatic contacts in Europe and the US, before being sacked again 18 months later.
After two years away from power, the former treasurer was recalled in September 2022. Sall appointed him prime minister, a post he had abolished in 2019 and previously held by Dionne. A candidate "by default" for some and the "best choice" for others, Ba positions himself in the "continuity" of the president, but on a ridgeline. "He has to reassure Sall's unconditional supporters, while showing that he has his own personality to distance himself from him," said Babacar Ndiaye, a political scientist at the Wathi think-tank.
In this troubled election, Ba will also have his work cut out against a radical opposition led by the former PASTEF-Les Patriotes (Patriotes Africains du Sénégal pour le Travail, l’Ethique et la Fraternité, left). Ironically, during his time at the tax department, he forged close ties with Sonko and his candidate, Faye, who reported to him at the time. It's also part of their electorate, the underprivileged youth, that he's trying to convince, not without contradictions.
"By endorsing Macky Sall's record, which is also his own, he risks being the catalyst for criticism of youth employment, at a time when emigration has picked up sharply. What's more, after three years of political unrest and some 60 deaths, the Senegalese have little taste for the postponement of the election and the amnesty law, as there is a need for justice. They could express this," said Ndiaye. Ba must also ensure the survival of his coalition, which has been held by Sall's iron fist for 12 years.