The Post’s Joel Sherman previews the AL East:
1. Baltimore Orioles
O/U wins: 90.5
Key player: Corbin Burnes. Nothing exemplifies that the Orioles are more in go-for-it mode after two strong seasons like trading two well-regarded youngsters for a walk-year, Scott Boras client with about zero chance of re-signing long term in Baltimore. Burnes is sixth in pitching Wins Above Average (Baseball Reference) and fifth in innings over the last four seasons. With Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez, the Orioles can suddenly have a fierce rotation top three.
Player who’ll need to step up: Craig Kimbrel. Felix Bautista was en route to among the best relief seasons in history — 30 hits allowed, 110 strikeouts and a 1.48 ERA in 61 innings — before needing Tommy John surgery. The only money Baltimore invested on a major league free-agent contract was $13 million on Kimbrel, who will pitch for his fifth team in four seasons. Will those moved-back fences at Camden Yards help Kimbrel, who allowed 10 homers in 69 innings for the Phillies last year and did little to dismiss continuing concerns about him in the postseason?
Name you’ll get to know: Jackson Holliday. You probably already know the name of Matt Holliday’s son, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 draft and the consensus No. 1 prospect in the majors. He turned 20 in December, has just 18 games of Triple-A experience and yet is expected to follow Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson as the positional tent poles for sustained contention in Baltimore.
Biggest question mark: How will they handle the burden of expectations? The O’s had their first winning season since 2016 with 83 victories two years ago. Still, they were thought of as in a building phase and more likely to step back than forward in 2023. Instead, they won 101 games and the AL East title. The Burnes trade only puts more expectations on a still largely inexperienced core.
How it’ll go down: The game is skewing younger and more athletic and that is Baltimore’s wheelhouse. The Orioles still have the consensus top farm system, so reinforcements from below or in trades are expected as the season progresses.
2. Tampa Bay Rays
O/U wins: 85.5
Key player: Jose Caballero. He was acquired from Seattle in the offseason for Luke Raley and is expected to begin the season at shortstop with the future of Wander Franco still clouded as he awaits determination of his legal fate in the Dominican on charges of sexual abuse of a minor. Caballero can defend and run, which might be enough in the Rays’ ecosystem in which the shortstop safety nets are Taylor Walls when he recovers from hip surgery and touted prospect Junior Caminero.
Player who’ll need to step up: Ryan Pepiot. No team finds pitching answers like the Rays. Their three best starters — Shane McClanahan, Drew Rasmussen and Jeffrey Springs — missed large chunks of last season and Tampa Bay still won 99 games. All three are expected to miss most or all of the coming season — plus Taj Bradley also will be out for a while. The Rays traded their best remaining starter from 2023, Tyler Glasnow, to the Dodgers, namely for Pepiot.
Name you’ll get to know: Caminero. He and Curtis Mead received cups of coffee last season and could end up being Tampa Bay’s double-play combo sometime in 2024 — and perhaps of the future if Franco’s legal situation leads to him not returning at all.
Biggest question mark: How long can the Rays sustain their magic? This is no small run — Tampa Bay’s .587 winning percentage the past six seasons trails only the Dodgers, Astros and Braves. Yes, the Rays were buoyed by a 13-0 start and won 20 of 23 to open the year. But did you know they were an AL-best 28-15 after Franco was removed from the team?
How it’ll go down: Despite having among MLB’s smallest payrolls, the Rays kept their strong lineup relatively intact. Until further notice assume they will figure out run prevention. This is a mentally tough group that excels in the David vs. Goliath role.
3. New York Yankees
O/U wins: 91.5
Key player: Marcus Stroman. At the midway mark last season, he was in the conversation for NL Cy Young. But injury led to a dip in performance and then a loss of six weeks. The Yankees could use even just the strong first half to help weather the loss of Gerrit Cole, but surely want a full season of excellence.
Player who’ll need to step up: Carlos Rodon. Despite the problematic Yankees offense of last season, these first two categories are filled by starting pitching because of the doubt that would even have existed behind Cole. Rodon had one of the worst pitching seasons in Yankee history in 2023 (6.85 ERA) while giving indicators of not being equipped for New York. He is entering just Season 2 of a six-year, $162 million pact.
Name you’ll get to know: Will Warren. Yet another starting pitcher. The Yankees have traded lots of prospect arms over the last four years and the ranks near the top are thinner. So the ability for Warren and his wide repertoire and cool demeanor to be able to step in at some point and regularly give the Yankees a chance to win will be vital.
Biggest question mark: Will they ever get through their health crisis? The Yankees have proven expert at understating injuries initially only to so often ultimately reveal the worst — is that incompetence, dishonesty, a combo or something else? Whatever the dissemination of information, they need to be a healthier group than the last few years and the spring injuries to Aaron Judge and especially Cole were not encouraging.
How it’ll go down: We have reached this sentence without mentioning Juan Soto, which is something considering the magnitude of the trade to land him and the impact he can have on the offense. And with the rotation more worrisome without Cole for at least a few months, it means that offense — Soto, growth from Anthony Volpe and Austin Wells, health for Judge, DJ LeMahieu, Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton — needs to hum.
- AL East preview: Where are the Yankees projected to finish?
- NL East preview: Do the Mets have a chance?
- AL Central preview: Detroit’s youth movement is here
- NL Central preview: Reds make a sneaky contender case
- AL West preview: Who wins out in the Astros-Rangers battle?
- NL West preview: Can anyone catch the Dodgers?
4. Toronto Blue Jays
O/U wins: 87.5
Key player: George Springer. He enters Season 4 of his six-year, $150 million pact and in the past two campaigns has seen his OPS fall from .907 to .814 to .732. He’s 34 now, but still expected to hit leadoff and still expected to be the best offensive outfielder in a group that includes the more defense-first Kevin Kiermaier and Daulton Varsho.
Player who’ll need to step up: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. He nearly won the AL MVP in 2021 and has not been the same force since. The bottom half of this lineup is not as imposing as in recent seasons — for example, Isiah Kiner-Falefa is replacing Matt Chapman at third base — and, thus, the top half has to carry a lot of weight. Can Guerrero return to being among the most feared hitters in the game?
Name you’ll get to know: Yariel Rodriguez. The Blue Jays signed the Cuban righty to a five-year, $32 million contract that allows them to option him to the minors without his permission in 2024. So he will begin there. He pitched out of the bullpen in Japan for the Chunichi Dragons, but he sat out last year. Rodriguez is being stretched out as a starter.
Biggest question mark: Has the best window passed Toronto by? Springer seems in decline. Guerrero and Bo Bichette are free agents after the 2025 season. Are the Blue Jays really going to have a season again like last year in which four starters — Chris Bassitt, Jose Berrios, Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi — all made at least 31 starts with a 110 ERA-plus or better?
How it’ll go down: The Blue Jays have made the playoffs each of the last three seasons and been swept in the first round each time. Can they break these chains?
5. Boston Red Sox
O/U wins: 77.5
Key player: Trevor Story. The Red Sox of recent vintage have not been bold in pursuing outside free agents, yet after the 2021 season agreed with Story at six years at $140 million. His first injury-plagued season ended with 94 underwhelming games played and the need for Tommy John surgery afterward. He returned last season to play 43 games and finish with a 52 OPS-plus — the eighth-worst in the majors for anyone with at least 160 plate appearances.
Player who’ll need to step up: Jarren Duran. Before being lost in August and needing surgery for turf toe, Duran was exhibiting impact with 34 doubles, 24 steals and a 121 OPS-plus in 102 games. Boston’s present is clouded, but its future is built around whether a young group of core position players such as Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Triston Casas and Ceddanne Rafaela can become fixtures.
Name you’ll get to know: Marcelo Mayer. The shortstop prospect and outfielder Roman Anthony are two other upside position players for the Red Sox’s near future.
Biggest question mark: What is going on with this franchise? Ownership seems to have moved on to its other ventures within the Fenway Sports Group. Manager Alex Cora is an interesting free agent at the end of the year. Craig Breslow is a first-time GM and former major league reliever who has a lot of work to build a pitching foundation within this organization.
How it’ll go down: The last time the Red Sox finished last three straight seasons was 1928-30 when the AL was an eight-team league and the Philadelphia Athletics were in their heyday. It will take a lot not to repeat that.
