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The price of Bitcoin has plummeted, dropping by 14.8% in the last week. The leading cryptocurrency according to CoinMarketCap has dropped by 17% since hitting its all-time high of $73,750, which occurred six days ago on March 14, 2024. The decrease in BTC price has caused the entire cryptocurrency market to also drop, resulting in a 5.04% reduction in market cap to $2.29 trillion over the last 24 hours. After reaching a low of $61,000, investors are questioning if Bitcoin price rally has come to an end. Let’s delve in for more details.
Despite experiencing notable growth of 123% so far this year and 18% in the last month, the value of BTC decreased by 5.28% in the previous day to reach $61,380.13. A significant uptick of 30.07% was observed in its 24-hour trading volume, reaching $73.07 billion, indicating strong trading activity in the market. Nevertheless, its market capitalization decreased by 5.25% to hit $1.21 trillion.
Bitcoin ETF flows have been slowing down, leading to selling pressure on BTC due to profit-taking by short-term investors.
According to data from BitMEX Research, over $640 million in BTC was withdrawn from Grayscale’s spot Bitcoin ETF GBTC on March 18. This marks the biggest day of withdrawals for IBIT since it started trading on Jan. 11.
Additionally, on-chain data from CryptoQuant show that users holding BTC for less than five months have been taking profits, contributing to the selling pressure. The on-chain analytics firm’s chart shows short-term holder SOPR ratio for BTC, indicating a significant movement related to profit realization.
This movement is seen once every few years, but it does not necessarily signal the peak of a bull market. The recent BTC sell-off was accompanied by $650 million in crypto liquidations, with long liquidations reaching $515 million in the last 24 hours. The sharp drop in crypto prices was partly due to a sudden movement in the crypto futures market, leading to long liquidations as traders faced losses.
Bitcoin’s recent drop of $10,000 from its all-time high of over $73,000 to around $63,000 is seen as a temporary opportunity to buy the dip by analysts at Bernstein. They believe this phase of consolidation is brief and presents a chance to buy before the upcoming halving event in April. This event, scheduled to occur every four years, will decrease the mining reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block. Despite record outflows from Grayscale‘s GBTC fund, analysts remain confident in bitcoin’s long-term potential, projecting a price of $150,000 by 2025.
The market is expected to consolidate before the halving, with the overall bull market likely to continue. While ETF flows may be affected by price action, the recent correction in bitcoin’s price is viewed as healthy and in line with historical trendstHE analysts remain optimistic about the future of bitcoin and the cryptocurrency ecosystem as a whole.
As per Rekt Capital‘s analysis on Bitcoin halving phases, BTC is currently in the pre-halving retracement stage, which takes place 28 to 14 days prior to the expected halving event. Past halvings have shown a consistent trend, with notable drops like a 38% decrease in 2016 and a 20% decline in 2020.
Following the Pre-Halving retrace, Bitcoin moves into a stage referred to as Re-Accumulation, featuring a prolonged period of stability or flattening (consolidation) and horizontal movement, shown in red on the charts. This stage can last for as long as 150 days, approximately five months. At this time, a lot of investors might feel disappointed because there haven’t been any major price changes after the Halving event. Emotions such as boredom, impatience, and disappointment could cause certain investors to leave their positions too soon.
Following the period of consolidation, Bitcoin transitions into a phase of speedy expansion referred to as the Parabolic Uptrend. This stage is characterized by a shift from the previous horizontal movement to a powerful upward trend, represented by the color green on the charts. In this stage, Bitcoin’s price experiences a significant increase, hitting new all-time highs. Investors feel a surge of enthusiasm and hope as the value of Bitcoin rises quickly, indicating a positive sentiment in the market.
Standard Chartered Bank has increased its prediction for bitcoin’s price at the end of the year to $150,000, up from $100,000. It has also forecasted that BTC will hit a peak of $250,000 next year before stabilizing at around $200,000.
The bank conducted its analysis by comparing the price of gold following the introduction of gold ETFs in the U.S., and by examining the correlation between BTC price and ETF inflows. Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) became available for trading in the United States in January.
According to the bank, gold analogy is still a useful reference point for determining the ‘correct’ BTC price level in the medium term, considering both ETF impact and portfolio mix. If ETF inflows hit its estimated midpoint of $75 billion, or if reserve managers start buying BTC, there is a strong possibility that the price could surpass $250,000 at some point in 2025.
Speculation regarding the end of the ongoing rally has been sparked by the recent decrease in Bitcoin’s price, influenced by factors such as reduced ETF inflows and short-term investors cashing out for profits. Nevertheless, analysts are still positive, seeing the drop as a short-term decline that offers a chance to buy before the upcoming halving event in April. Based on past patterns and economic forces, it is expected that Bitcoin will recover and potentially reach $150,000 by 2025. Investors should keep up-to-date, track important metrics, and think about the long-term possibilities despite short-term changes in the cryptocurrency market.
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