The outlook for who the New England Patriots could draft with the No. 3 overall pick hasn’t changed much. But now mock draft experts are starting to push the idea of the Patriots trading down to one team in particular -- the Minnesota Vikings.
With one month to go until the 2024 NFL Draft, projections across the league have started to crystalize. Looking across mocks from various experts, the field is split between the choice of quarterbacks at No. 3 -- LSU’s Jayden Daniels or North Carolina’s Drake Maye. In most mock drafts, the pick comes down to one of those two options at No. 3.
But the idea of a trade-down to the Vikings at No. 11 is gaining steam. This comes after the Vikings made a move to acquire a second pick in the first round this year, giving them additional ammo for a potential move up the board. Proposed trades would net the Patriots as much as two extra first-rounders and a second-rounder in exchange for moving down eight spots.
In this roundup, we have 18 different projections for what the Patriots will do in Round 1. Eight mocks have New England taking Daniels at No. 3. Five have the team taking Drake Maye. Then there are five mocks that have them trading down to No. 11. None of the mocks we looked at had the Patriots trading with any other teams.
It’s certainly possible the Patriots could field a trade offer from another team. But for right now, the consensus is that the Vikings are the most willing bidder.
Here’s a look at the current state of mock drafts:
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Analysis: “I’m sure the Patriots will receive lucrative offers for this pick. At the end of the day, they need to address the most important position on the field and could do so with the third overall selection.”
The Athletic Beat Writer Staff - Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State (After trading down to No. 11)
Analysis, via Chad Graff: “In real life, the Patriots plan to hold firm and take a quarterback with the No. 3 pick. But plans can change, and the offer the Vikings made in this mock draft was enough for me to change course. The Patriots’ roster needs to improve so much that the new goal is to build up the rest of that roster and use our (now) two 2025 first-round picks to get a quarterback next year. To start that rebuild, we landed Fashanu, who would drop right in as the starting left tackle. This Patriots team doesn’t have a clear starter at the position, and they would love someone who could solidify the offensive line and be a piece to build around in the coming years.)
Mel Kiper Jr., ESPN - Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
Analysis: “New England wouldn’t pass up a quarterback here, right? I’m not as confident as I was before free agency began. The Patriots signed Jacoby Brissett to a one-year deal, and he could be the bridge option to a rookie. But then when you look at their other signings, are we sure they’re not thinking beyond 2024 already?”
Joel Klatt, FOX Sports - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Analysis: “With Williams and Maye off the board, this should be an easy pick for the Patriots. The Patriots already traded away Mac Jones while their quarterback room only has Jacoby Brissett and Bailey Zappe. That’s not going to cut it. Of all teams, they should know you need to elevate at that position in order to win. Nobody wins the Super Bowl with average quarterback play. I can’t wait to see what Daniels does at the next level.”
Yahoo Sports Staff - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU (After trading down to No. 11)
Analysis: “The Patriots trade back and stop Jayden Daniels’ fall down the draft board. They’re not set up well to support a rookie quarterback, but the financial risk lessens at this point in the draft and Daniels will give them a floor to at least be a quality rushing team.
Nate Davis, USA TODAY - Taliese Fuaga, OT, Oregon State (after trading down to No. 11)
Analysis: “Better not to force a quarterback here, which is also the presumption for their potential willingness to vacate the No. 3 spot. A right tackle for the Beavers, Fuaga is excellent in pass protection and especially nasty as a run blocker. He’ll be the first Round 1 O-lineman in Oregon State’s history and can probably play anywhere up front aside from center – and it would hardly be a shock if Wolf’s rebuild began in the trenches.”
Chad Reuter, NFL.com - Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
Analysis: “It looks as though the Patriots will ride with a rookie quarterback in the post-Bill Belichick era, grabbing whomever the Commanders pass on between Daniels and Maye. Maye’s strength in the pocket and all-around skill set scream NFL starter, and the team hopes new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt can mold him into a consistent winner.”
Tom Fornelli, CBS Sports - Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State (After trading down to No. 11)
Analysis: “The Patriots didn’t sign Jacoby Brissett as a long-term answer, but this roster has plenty of needs. By trading down and adding picks, they can address more of them. One of those needs is along the offensive line, where they add a prospect oozing with potential in Fashanu.”
Benjamin Solak, The Ringer - Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
Analysis: “I imagine they’ll like Maye, who has prototypical size and oodles of natural talent, along with quality film over the last two seasons. But with QB Jacoby Brissett in hand for a season, they aren’t forced to pick a quarterback here if they don’t want to.
Field Yates, ESPN - Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
Analysis: “There is no consolation prize among the three top quarterbacks in this class. They are all really good. And Maye has immense upside with his terrific arm, idyllic 6-foot-4 stature and dual-threat ability.”
Josh Edwards, CBS Sports - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Analysis: “Quarterbacks are taken 1-2-3 as Jayden Daniels is the latest to come off the board to New England. Is it possible the Patriots would prefer another quarterback from Michigan though? J.J. McCarthy is now the best option remaining for quarterback-needy teams.”
Nick Baumgardner, The Athletic - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Analysis: “New England could find multiple trade markets at No. 3 — we shouldn’t eliminate the notion of someone wanting to move up for Harrison, in addition to those teams eyeing QB3. I’m skeptical about how many of those teams will be willing to sell the farm for Daniels, though, as I slot him closer to J.J. McCarthy on my board than to Maye or Williams.”
Chris Trapasso, CBS Sports - J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan (After trading down to No. 11)
Analysis: “The Patriots slide back and still land a quarterback. Fantastic maneuvering by Eliot Wolf.”
Phil Perry, NBC Sports Boston - Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
Analysis: “In this scenario, the Patriots don’t mind that their roster isn’t built to support a young quarterback in his first season. They see face-of-the-franchise potential in Drake Maye and they turn in a card bearing his name as soon as the Commanders select Jayden Daniels at No. 2 overall.”
Will Brinson, CBS Sports - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Analysis: “The Patriots are a trade-out candidate here as well, but like the Commanders, they want to grab their guy in this QB-rich draft, and they do so with the Heisman winner, who pairs nicely with the sneakily unathletic Jacoby Brissett.”
Vinnie Iyer, Sporting News - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Analysis: “The Patriots did sign Brissett, but they also traded Mac Jones, telling everyone they also will be drafting a franchise QB. Their moves to improve the offense have been uninspiring, but they are hinting a little that they want to add a key running element to what will be a rush-heavy offense. Daniels can provide that with his speed and explosiveness, and he also has a lively, big-play arm.
Trevor Sikkema, Pro Football Focus - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Analysis: New Patriots head coach Jerod Mayo had this to say about draft strategy ... For him to say that at that time means the Patriots were confident in not only Caleb Williams but also Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels to be franchise quarterbacks. Mayo likely doesn’t express that thought if New England isn’t planning on taking whichever quarterback is left on the board, even if it’s the QB3 of that group.
Diante Lee, The Athletic - Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
Analysis: “With some time behind the right bridge option, Daniels can land somewhere between the likes of Daniel Jones and Jalen Hurts in the NFL QB ranks. The question is whether that’s worth a top-three pick.”