Detroit Tigers 2024 season preview: Odds, best bets and predictions

The Detroit Tigers open the 2024 season in Chicago against the White Sox on Thursday. Even though the weather in the Midwest has been bone-shaking cold, “hope springs eternal” for the Tigers as the baseball season starts.

Many sports bettors see opening day as the signal to find the best MLB sports betting sites for wagering over the six-month, 162-game season. We’ll provide Detroit Tigers odds and betting tips and picks for your favorite team below.

Recap of 2023 season

The Tigers did just enough in the second half last season to lift expectations. From July 1 on, Detroit was 43-38, the second-best record in the division. They finished in second place, but won only 78 games.

Most alarmingly, Detroit was outscored by 79 runs, which means they should have won about 73 games. Instead, they cleaned up on three weak teams in their division, going 27-12 against the Guardians, Royals, and White Sox.

The two players who made giant strides in ‘23 were first baseman Spencer Torkelson and starter Tarik Skubal. Torkelson smacked 19 HR after the All-Star break. Skubal had six quality starts after the All-Star break, and allowed only 14 hits and three earned runs in the final month of the season, when he went 4-0 with a 0.90 ERA.

On the minus side, Javier Báez had an abysmal season with the stick, Riley Greene was on the Injured List twice and failed to play 100 games, and Austin Meadows is apparently finished as a big league player following a difficult year.

Odds for World Series, pennant, playoffs, wins over/under

These odds are from the Team Futures section of BetMGM Sportsbook, unless noted.

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World Series odds: +6600
Pennant odds: +2500
AL Central Division odds: +350
Make the MLB Playoffs odds: +175
Tigers Wins Over/Under: 80.5 Wins (Over -112, Under -108 from FanDuel)

If you want to steal a division crown, the American League Central is where you want to be. Detroit only needs to win 87 games to match what first-place Minnesota did last year. However, the division will be better and the Tigers were somewhat lucky, based on run differential, allowing them to win 78 in 2023.

We believe the best wager for the Tigers fan who expects a successful season is +158 on OVER 85.5 wins, from Caesars Sportsbook. Not super long odds, but a winning $100 wager would bring in $158 if Detroit can manage 86 victories.

If you think the Tigers can manage OVER 85.5 wins, you may as well consider the +350 odds on winning the AL Central (FanDuel). Should the Tigers win 86+ AND win the division title, your $100 wagers on both would return $508 ($350 + $158 for both wagers).

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Analysis of players added to the team, other changes

The big new name on the tongue of every Tigers fan is Colt Keith. It sounds like an old western hero: “The Adventures of Colt Keith, Lawman!” But, he’s actually a rookie second baseman who will make his MLB debut on opening day. No six-shooter on his hip: Keith’s weapon of choice is a Louisville Slugger. Keith is the first Tigers rookie to start at the position on opening day since Sweet Lou Whitaker, in 1978.

Detroit president of baseball operations Scott Harris added outfielder Mark Canha, and Swiss Army Knife player Gio Urshela this past offseason. On the surface those moves are far from sexy, but they make sense. Canha is a “professional hitter” who understands the strike zone. He can post a 750+ OPS in his sleep, which is far better than the Tigers have put up in recent seasons. He’s not a guy you build a lineup around, but he’s better than Akil Baddoo, who hopefully spends this season getting to know the best restaurants in Toledo.

Urshela is a useful, jack-of-all-trades. He’s serviceable at third, short and second, and he has playoff experience. At this point of his career, Gio would likely be most effective playing 120 games rather than 150. He’s the type of player who works very well on a talented team. In Detroit, he’s a placeholder until the Third Baseman of the Future arrives, whomever that should end up being.

The Detroit offense scored 661 runs in 2023, ranking 13th among 15 AL teams. Their biggest weakness was the lack of extra-base power. It’s a myth that Comerica Park is too spacious for a power-hitting team. The Tigers have had lineups in the past that hit oodles of doubles and led the league in triples, with a couple 30+ HR bats mixed in. With Spencer Torkelson and Kerry Carpenter, Detroit has a right/left punch duo. Now they need to find the right recipe with Canha, Ushela, Keith, and the old guard, to push toward the middle of the pack in offense. If they can, it will be a delightful summer in the Motor City.

The pitching staff welcomes Jack Flaherty, Kenta Maeda and reliever Shelby Miller. More on them in the pitching section below.

Lineup, player props and odds

Detroit’s lineup is likely to be a mix of old and new. The glaring missing name is Miguel Cabrera, who retired following the ‘23 season. Three of the names likely to be in the lineup for opening day were not on the team last season.

Lineup

*Left-handed batter

Parker Meadows*, CF
Riley Greene*, RF
Spencer Torkelson, 1B
Kerry Carpenter*, DH
Mark Canha, LF
Colt Keith*, 2B
Gio Urshela, 3B
Javier Báez, SS
Jake Rogers, C

Torkelson to hit 30+ home runs, +104 (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Odds are from FanDuel Sportsbook, where you can get $200 in bonus bets if your first bet of $5 or more wins.

Torkelson is 24 years old this season. The Tigers have had only one player under the age of 25 who has put up multiple seasons of 30+ homers. That was Rudy York, who did it in 1937-38. York was a terrifying sight in the batters’ box. Hall of Fame pitcher Bob Feller called him the strongest man he ever faced. York hit 12 grand slams, and once clubbed a record 18 home runs in a single month. Oh, how nice it would be if Torkelson managed even a dozen in August.

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Colt Keith to win Rookie of the Year, +1000 (DraftKings Sportsbook)

Get used to Keith, he’s going to be in a Detroit uniform for a while. The team signed him to a six-year contract this offseason that could be worth as much as $82 million. And he hasn’t taken his first ground ball in an MLB game yet.

Fear not: as long as A.J. Hinch has patience, Keith will reward the Tigers with production. Whether he will be a superstar is a question that the 22-year old may not answer for a few years. But Keith is the most exciting middle infield prospect for this franchise since Travis Fryman.

Pitching preview: Skubal Cy Young odds

Detroit’s opening day choice is Tarik Skubal, a thick-legged, strong-armed southpaw who likes to use a four-seam fastball and top-notch changeup. Last year, batters hit .167 with a SLG of .205 against Skubal’s changeup. There are some who think Skubal can develop into one of the best lefties in the league.

Next in line for pitching coach Chris Fetter are vets Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda, neither of whom will dominate the opposing lineup. However, both are capable of taking the ball every fifth day and logging 150 innings. That would alleviate pressure on the bullpen.

Speaking of the bullpen, Detroit will be strong in that area. Closer Alex Lange is capable, though he can be wild. Conversely, his pal Jason Foley is a control specialist (15 BB in 69 IP in 2023). Newcomer Shelby Miller is a welcome addition as a setup man. Hinch and Fetter can rely on Will Vest, Tyler Holton, and Joey Wentz too. Beau Briske, a converted starting pitcher, will round out the relief corps. The Tiger pen should be solid. The only question is how many leads they will be given.

Starting rotation

The Tigers have three new names in the rotation compared to what fans saw a year ago. Two came via free agency: Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty. Those pitchers are both veterans with years of experience toeing the rubber in MLB. Young farmhand Reese Olson has secured the No. 5 spot.

This is how the Detroit rotation looks:

Tarik Skubal (+1000 to win AL Cy Young via BetMGM)
Kenta Maeda
Jack Flaherty
Casey Mize
Reese Olson

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The worry here is that Skubal experienced shoulder soreness last season, and Mize is returning from Tommy John surgery. If the Tigers are forced to dig deep to find starters, that means inexperienced and/or sore-shouldered pitchers taking the hill in 2024. Detroit has had only one pitcher make as many as 28 starts in the last two seasons, and hasn’t had three starters do so in five years.

Matt Manning was once a heralded prospect, but two fractures in his foot curtailed his progress in 2023. Somehow, despite pitching well this spring, Manning lost his rotation spot. He will be the first man in line should Hinch need a replacement.

Likewise, Jackson Jobe was optioned to the minors this spring, in spite of eye-popping stuff. Jobe has made the mistake of being 21 years old, and the Tigers don’t like pushing their pitchers too fast. He features a fastball that reaches 100 mph. He scares the socks off enemy batters with his pitching repertoire. Why the Tiger brain trust has decided not to promote him is a conundrum. He should be in Motown soon, if the Tigers are wise.

Prediction: Could they win 85 games?

We’re worried about that run deficit from 2023. The Detroit lineup, as constituted on opening day, has too many holes for our taste. Javier Báez is paid well, which makes it nearly impossible to imagine A.J. Hinch would sit him in favor of a better performing player. But, if Báez puts up an OPS near .593 like last season, the Tigers can hardly afford to keep his flailing bat in the lineup.

It’s possible Mark Canha will turn back the clock to his 2019 performance level, when he slugged 26 HR with a .900+ OPS. And it’s possible Colt Keith will contend for Rookie of the Year: his bat is promising, and he’s certainly better than any of the veteran options Hinch has for second base. We could also see Gio Urshela having a revival: his bat seems perfect for gappers at Comerica. That could mean 35+ doubles from Gio.

If those things happen, and if Riley Greene finally plays a full season healthy, we could see Detroit scoring enough runs to contend for a playoff spot. It may take as few as 85 wins to be in the wild card hunt. But that assumes a lot and hinges on health from their starting pitchers. That’s a benefit the Tigers have not had in recent years, when it seems like they’ve had a hotline that dials directly to the shoulder surgeon.

The best Detroit Tigers prop bet

In every season but once since 2015, Detroit has lost at least 7 games in a row. You can grab -125 odds on the Tigers Longest Losing Streak of 2024 to be Over 6.5 from Caesars. That means your $125 wager would win $225, including the stake.

2024 Tigers Prediction: 76-86, 3rd Place in AL Central

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