Joel Embiid’s return to the Sixers isn’t only about this season

On Wednesday, we got our most concrete update yet on Joel Embiid’s timeline to return.

Prior to the 108-107 robbery loss against the Los Angeles Clippers, head coach Nick Nurse told reporters that there was “a very good likelihood” that Embiid will be back before the end of the regular season on April 14. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski then reported that “it is not a question of if, but when” Embiid returns.

“The belief is, with nine regular-season games left after tonight against the Clippers, that Joel Embiid can be back for a handful of those,” Woj added. “… There’s a lot of optimism right now around Joel Embiid. I’m told that he is moving well, he has looked good on the court.”

Prior to those updates, the uncertainty surrounding Embiid’s return had some ready to wave the white flag on the season. They figured that even if Embiid does return, he won’t have enough time to get back up to speed and acclimate to his new teammates before the playoffs ramp up. Why risk further injury to the franchise centerpiece for what figures to be a short playoff appearance?

Beyond the obvious—good luck telling the oft-injured 30-year-old star to punt on what could be one of the final playoff runs of his prime—his return could have long-term benefits as well.

Buddy Hield, Cam Payne and Kyle Lowry have now been with the Sixers for nearly two months, but none of them have played a single minute with Embiid yet. It’s easy to conceptualize how all three of them would fit with him, but the more that the Sixers get to see it in action, the better. All three are set to become free agents this offseason—along with nearly everyone else on the Sixers’ roster—leaving the front office with major decisions about how to build around Embiid and Tyrese Maxey moving forward.

Hield is the most critical swing piece in that regard. After starting his Sixers career with four straight 20-point games, he has steadily tailed off over the past month-and-a-half, losing his starting spot to Kyle Lowry along the way. Heading into Wednesday, Hield had averaged only 9.6 points on 40.9 percent shooting (including 32.2 percent from deep) in 22.3 minutes per game over his past 10 appearances, although he did score 17 points on 7-of-11 shooting against the Clippers.

Perhaps more than anyone else on the roster, Hield would benefit from Embiid’s gravitational pull on defenders. He’s a 40.0 percent career three-point shooter on 7.6 attempts per game, in case there was any question about his signature skill. Embiid found success in the past with JJ Redick and Seth Curry, and there’s no reason to think his partnership with Hield would be any different.

At a minimum, the Sixers need to see whether Embiid’s return shakes Hield out of his recent cold shooting spell. If Hield isn’t one of the best three-point shooters in the league, he’ll likely have trouble living up to whatever contract he signs in free agency this summer. Even if he does, the Sixers should also want to see how Hield holds up in the playoffs.

Through eight NBA seasons, Hield has yet to play in a playoff game. One-dimensional players often have their minutes reduced during the postseason, especially if they’re a defensive liability, which Hield is very much at risk of being. Luckily, Embiid has plenty of experience covering up for his teammates on defense.

If Hield’s supernova shooting allows him to stay on the floor through a deep playoff run—a la Duncan Robinson of the Miami Heat—that could make the Sixers more interested in re-signing him this summer. But if he gets flambeed, that might give them pause.

The Sixers sent three second-round picks to the Indiana Pacers for Hield at the trade deadline, which isn’t the typical going rate for a rental player. Hield is going to become an unrestricted free agent this summer either way, but the Sixers likely went into that trade with some idea of how much he’s hoping to receive on his next deal and some willingness to meet that price if his half-season audition went well.

Seeing how Hield meshes with Embiid—especially in a playoff setting—could help determine how much the Sixers would spend to re-sign him this summer. Payne and Lowry are both likely in minimum-contract territory moving forward, but it wouldn’t hurt to see them play with Embiid to gauge whether to bring them back next year as well.

Embiid’s return would have the obvious benefit of sliding everyone else down one peg on both offense and defense, restoring balance to both sides of the floor. The Sixers stand virtually zero chance of making a deep playoff run without him, but he’ll at least make them a live underdog if they get to the postseason.

The Sixers can’t only be thinking about this year, though. With the possibility of creating up to $65 million in cap space this summer, they need to be exploring all of their options. They could run back the same team and hope for better luck on the health front next year, let everyone go in pursuit of a star free agent (say, Paul George?) or some combination of the two. That means they need to figure out which (if any) free agents of their own that they’re hoping to bring back.

Embiid’s meniscus injury might have nuked the Sixers’ best chances of winning a championship this season, but his return could help increase their title chances next year. Letting the front office see how Hield, Lowry and Payne fit alongside him could give them the clarity they need ahead of free agency.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac or RealGM.