David Shoebridge says Julian Assange ‘may not survive’ trial and extradition – as it happened

20 Mar 202419.42 EDT

Tory Shepherd

The Juice Media – the brains behind those “honest government” videos you’ve probably seen on social media – have clapped back at the Tasmanian Electoral Commission’s censorship (you can read all about that here):

20 Mar 202419.33 EDT

Paul Karp

‘Do the right thing’: Sarah Hanson-Young says Labor should drop offshore gas bill changes

Sarah Hanson-Young and the Greens have been lobbying hard against the offshore gas bill, including offering their vote on vehicle emissions standards in return for the government dropping proposed changes to approvals.

Hanson-Young said:

Gas companies can’t be allowed to bypass environment law and ignore the views of the community while wrecking our beaches and coastline. Australians voted for environment and integrity last election, not tricky politics and fossil fuels. I urge the government to do the right thing and honour that mandate.

This was tacked on to an otherwise good law about improving worker safety. It should be dropped so the parliament can get on with protecting workers’ rights and the environment without delay.

20 Mar 202419.32 EDT

Paul Karp

Ryan and Steggall criticise Nationals and Greens’ opposition to vaping ban

Monique Ryan and Zali Steggall also had strong words about political opposition from the Nationals and resistance from the Greens on the vaping ban.

Ryan said:

The actions of the tobacco industry, which is the vaping industry, they are the same thing, and the way they have inveigled the National party to advocate on their behalf is really concerning … It’s unfortunate to have to say it, but when we look at their donations procedures and their relationships with the Nationals and NSW Liberals, those relationships are too close and they are affecting the policy that the Nationals are putting up.

Steggall:

I strongly support the government’s action in banning vaping and call on the Nationals, Coalition and – surprisingly, the Greens – I don’t understand what their reason is, in backing this ban. As a mum, it’s horrendous to see just how widespread and insidious vaping has become with young people and teenagers.

20 Mar 202419.27 EDT

Peter Hannam

Unemployment rate tipped to drop as ABS to release February labour market figures today

The Albanese government, the Reserve Bank and the rest of us will get an important update on the health of the economy later this morning when the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases labour market figures for February.

The jobs data can be a bit fickle and – unlike inflation – is subject to revisions, making it tricky sometimes to get an instant understanding of what the figures mean.

Economists, meanwhile, are expecting the unemployment rate to have dropped back to 4% last month from January’s two-year high (seasonally adjusted) of 4.1%.

They’re also tipping the economy added 40,000 jobs, or technically 80 times the meagre 500 created in January (but that’s obviously a low bar to clear).

Unless January’s jobless rate doesn’t get a tweak, a 4% tally would be the first drop in five months and give a few people (eg the treasurer, Jim Chalmers) something to cheer about.

However, the labour market figures have other elements to watch – such as whether the jobs created or lost were full- or part-time ones – and what the participation rate was.

The latter was 66.8% in January and if that moves a bit, you can get odd outcomes, such as a jump in jobs created while the unemployment rate increased too.

And then there’s hours worked. Before long you’re down a statistical rabbit hole.

Needless to say, the more jobs created and hours worked, the better it is for the economy, and that’s what we’ll probably focus on.

Stay tuned for the 11.30am AEDT release right here on your favourite blog.

The defence minister, Richard Marles, and his UK counterpart, Grant Shapps, have officially signed a new defence and security cooperation agreement.

The new pact “includes a status of forces agreement, making it easier for the respective forces to operate together in each other’s countries” which is already happening in exercises like the joint training of Ukrainian troops in the UK.

While the UK and Australia already consult on regional security issues, that practice will now be formalised by this agreement. Last year, the Aukmin agreement was to update this pact – you can consider that ticked off with this announcement.

Also included:

• The UK’s contribution to the Combined Intelligence Centre – Australia, within the Defence Intelligence Organisation.

• Commitment to develop a joint climate action plan by Aukmin 2025.

• Continued cooperation on capability development, including through Aukus.

• Establishment of elevated joint staff talks, to ensure our operational cooperation meets contemporary challenges.

• Closer collaboration on undersea warfare, autonomous sea mine clearance, science, technology, and our workforces.

• The UK’s contribution to exercises Talisman Sabre, Pitch Black, and Predators Run

• Australia’s support for the UK’s Littoral Response Group-South and a carrier strike group visit to the Indo-Pacific in 2025.

The day after her meeting with China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, Penny Wong has released this comment on the draconian Hong Kong security laws

Wong:

Australia is deeply concerned that Hong Kong’s Article 23 legislation will further erode rights and freedoms as guaranteed under the Basic Law and Sino-British Joint Declaration.

We believe these laws have far reaching impacts, including on individuals in Australia.

Read the Guardian view on the matter here:

20 Mar 202419.17 EDT

Paul Karp

Steggall says government still ‘captured by the interests of gas’

Zali Steggall, Monique Ryan and David Pocock just held a press conference about vehicle emissions standards, at which they also commented on the offshore gas bill.

Steggall said that “we can’t have a situation where the government introduces legislation that becomes a shortcut or a circumvention around proper assessment and process”.

She said:

That bill, and that provision, shows the government still being captured by the interests of gas and that needs to change. So the fact [the bill] has been pulled, I’d say there’s a lot of talking and negotiating going on behind the scenes.

Pocock said he is concerned when it comes to climate action “rather than working with the crossbench the Australian people delivered, seems to want to do a deal with the Coalition, who were voted out” on the basis of climate “inaction”.

He said:

The crossbench stands ready to act in the best interests of Australians, not the best interests of the fossil fuel industry. We know whilst it’s played an important part in our economy, it’s time to transition out of. We’re not seeing that – really worrying.

20 Mar 202419.12 EDT

Paul Karp

Crossbenchers voice concern over potential to water down environmental protections in gas bill

Earlier this week we reported that resources minister, Madeleine King, had pulled a controversial offshore gas bill from the notice paper.

The bill has sparked concerns from the Greens, environment groups, crossbenchers including David Pocock, and First Nations Australians about watering down consultation requirements.

The independent MP Zali Steggall has moved an amendment to remove schedule two – which effectively removes authority for approvals from the environment minister to the resources minister – from the bill, which is otherwise about worker safety.

The Wentworth independent, Allegra Spender, is one of those consulting King about the bill.

Spender told Guardian Australia:

I’m very concerned that this bill could result in a significant weakening of environmental protections. It’s not clear why the resources minister should be given such broad powers to re-write Australia’s environmental rules, particularly when the government is bringing a major environmental law reform package to parliament later this year.

I will always work constructively with the government, and I have written to Minister King raising my concerns. We’re continuing good faith discussions around how these problematic carve-outs could be addressed, but there is a lot of work to be done.

We need to see this provision removed entirely, or substantially amended, so that there can be no weakening of environmental protections. I have no issues in relation to the worker safety aspects of the legislation, and these could pass the parliament now.

Why the unemployment rate could be key to predicting recession

While economists are arguing the toss on what the “per capita recession” means more broadly (spoiler: nothing good), Greg Jericho has taken a look at another measure that American economist Claudia Sahm has used to accurately predict recessions – in real time.

One of the issues with responding to recessions is the data used to confirm it is always retrospective – governments only receive the previous quarters data once they are in the new quarter. The data lags behind the reality.

Sahm, who spent more than a decade in the US Fed, looked at a different indicator – the unemployment rate. By looking at the moving average of the unemployment rate, Sahm was able to predict recessions as they were happening, meaning governments and central banks should be able to respond much faster.

Grogs has applied the Sahm rule to Australia and it’s not great news. We’ll be getting the latest unemployment figures at 11.30 and most economists are once again expecting unemployment to rise. Grogs says the RBA needs to take note:

Before asking his question to Donald Trump yesterday, the UK conservative and Brexit cheerleader Nigel Farage, who is trying to carve out a media career, said it came from “our good friends at Sky News Australia”.

Farage asked Trump:

The Aukus deal that is in place, America, you know, the UK, Australia, very, very important deal, it is there to try and combat that huge growth in China. But now of course things have changed in Australia, we have a Labor government in Australia. The previous ambassador, Joe Hockey, I think was quite a good friend of yours, you got on pretty well with him. Now they have appointed Kevin Rudd. A former Labor MP and he has said the most horrible things, you were a destructive president, a traitor to the west, and he is now Australia’s ambassador in Washington. Would you [take a phone call from him?]”

Trump didn’t appear to know who Farage was talking about and gave a vague answer based on Farage’s leading prodding:

Yeah, well I don’t know … he won’t there be long if that is the case. I don’t know much about him. I heard he was a little nasty. I heard he’s not the brightest bulb. I don’t know much about him but he won’t be there long if he is at all hostile.

Sydney radio station 2GB reports the question was written by the chief executive of Sky News Australia, Paul “Boris” Whittaker.

Murdoch’s GB News, the network that hosts Farage, is run by Angelo Frangopoulos, who previously ran Sky News Australia.

2GB reports Frangopoulos asked Whittaker to write the question that Farage asked. We are now on day two of its coverage and Sky News is dedicating quite a lot of air time to the question, Rudd’s alleged reaction and how it is being blamed for it.

View image in fullscreen