Predicting what happens to Detroit Lions 16 free agents: Who stays and who goes
When Graham Glasgow left the Detroit Lions in free agency in 2020, the team never made a realistic effort to keep him because of an organizational philosophy pushed by Matt Patricia that the team doesn’t believe in paying guards.
If Glasgow bolts for a second time next week, it will be under different circumstances.
The Lions have engaged in talks to re-sign Glasgow and left guard Jonah Jackson, but both players could land more lucrative paydays elsewhere in a guard market that’s exploded in recent years.
Already this offseason, the Los Angeles Rams signed Kevin Dotson — a good player, but one who revived his career in L.A. last season — to a three-year deal that averages about $16 million per season, and the Jacksonville Jaguars signed Ezra Cleveland, who they acquired in a trade with the Minnesota Vikings last fall, to a three-year, $28.5 million deal.
Jackson is considered one of the best guards on the market. He’s the same age (27) as Dotson, made the Pro Bowl in 2021 and should make similar money on his next contract.
Glasgow won’t command as big a raise at 31 years old, but he played well last season in his return to Detroit after three years with the Denver Broncos and his versatility — he made starts last year at both guard spots and center — adds to his value as a free agent.
The Lions have built one of the strongest offensive lines in the NFL, and that unit played a huge role in their success last season. They ranked fourth in the league in rushing yards (135.9 ypg) and tied for the fourth-fewest sacks allowed (31).
Lions general manager Brad Holmes said at his end-of-season news conference in February it’s “extremely important” to keep that unit strong going forward. The team will have to decide at what cost in the coming days.
Left tackle Taylor Decker and center Frank Ragnow already are playing on deals that average north of $13 million per season. Right tackle Penei Sewell will become the highest-paid offensive lineman in the NFL whenever he signs his next deal. And Decker is entering the final year of his contract and will need a new deal — or the Lions will need to find a replacement — next spring.
“That’s what our team is, is, I mean, our offensive line,” Holmes said after the season. “Us being able to protect the quarterback and run the football like we do. That’s extremely important. And so, that’s definitely going to be one that – that’ll be an area that will not be overlooked. As good as it has been in the past, just those points that you’ve raised, it’s definitely going to be a point of emphasis still.”
With the free agent negotiating window set to open at noon Monday and players free to sign with other teams at 4 p.m. Wednesday, the Lions’ chances of signing Glasgow to a third contract seem better than their chances of retaining Jackson.
Glasgow said after the season he hoped to stay in Detroit, and that the Lions expressed interest in keeping him. He likely would enter next season as a starter, unlike last year, when he spent the summer competing for the right guard job with Halapoulivaati Vaitai, another pending free agent. And he’ll cost considerably less.
The Lions have 17 unrestricted free agents in all, including backup quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who announced his retirement in-season and accepted the head coaching job at his high school alma matter, Miami Northwestern, after the Lions’ playoff loss to the San Francisco 49ers.
The team signed would-be free agents Emmanuel Moseley, Michael Badgley and Jalen Reeves-Maybin to extensions in recent weeks, made restricted free agent Brock Wright a right-of-first-refusal tender offer and inked exclusive rights free agent Shane Zylstra to a minimum deal.
After Jackson and Glasgow, safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson and receiver Josh Reynolds are the Lions’ top pending free agents, and the team is interested in bringing back other players like cornerback Kindle Vildor and linebacker Anthony Pittman.
The Lions currently have about $46 million in salary cap space for 2024, ninth most in the league according to OverTheCap.com.
They plan to use some of that to sign quarterback Jared Goff and receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown to extensions this offseason, and reportedly inquired about trading for franchise-tagged free agent cornerback L’Jarius Sneed of the Kansas City Chiefs.
Holmes hinted in February the Lions would not be major players in free agency, and both he and Lions coach Dan Campbell touted the need to spend on quality depth at the NFL combine.
At guard, the Lions have good depth in Colby Sorsdal, a fifth-round pick last spring, and Kayode Awosika, an exclusive rights free agent who will be back in 2024 and who started the NFC championship game with Jackson out with a knee injury.
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Whether it’s bringing back Jackson and/or Glasgow, or adding a guard like the Miami Dolphins’ Robert Hunt, they need to find at least one starter in free agency.
Here is a look at the Lions’ 2023 UFA class, and a prediction about who will and won’t return. All contractual numbers for 2023 are for cash value, according to NFL Players Association records, and do not include money made on practice squad:
Offense (9)
Jonah Jackson
Position: OG
Age: 27
2023 contract: $3 million
Buzz: Jackson is the Lions’ top free agent and could get a deal worth north of $16 million. He made the Pro Bowl in his second season but has battled injuries the past two years. The Lions remain in contact, but if they don’t get a deal done before the negotiating window opens there’s a good chance another team will pay him what he wants.
Prediction: Jackson signs a Dotson-sized deal elsewhere Wednesday.
Graham Glasgow
Position: OL
Age: 31
2023 contract: $2.758 million
Buzz: After Sewell, Glasgow might have been the Lions’ most consistent lineman last season. He ranked second in ESPN’s run block win rate stat among interior linemen and started the season’s final 18 games, primarily at right guard. Unlike Jackson, he’s had a big payday in his career already so the lure of staying in Detroit and playing with friends might appeal to him. The Lions better be careful, though, because Glasgow’s experience and versatility will appeal to contenders.
Prediction: Glasgow signs a two-year deal to stay with the Lions at the start of free agency.
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Josh Reynolds
Position: WR
Age: 29
2023 contract: $3.25 million
Buzz: Reynolds caught 40 passes for 608 yards and five touchdowns last season, though he ended the year on a sour note with two costly drops in the playoffs. The Lions had contract discussions with Reynolds’ agent at the combine, and the door appears open for a return. The Lions won’t overspend on a No. 3 receiver, but Reynolds isn’t likely to have a huge market in free agency.
Prediction: Re-signed to a deal that maxes out at $6 million annually.
Donovan Peoples-Jones
Position: WR
Age: 25
2023 contract: $1.524 million
Buzz: A midseason trade acquisition from the Cleveland Browns, Peoples-Jones caught five passes in eight games for the Lions. He’s young and just a year removed from a 61-catch, 839-yard season, so he may generate interest in free agency. If the Lions don’t bring Reynolds back, he’s a solid fallback option as a backup to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams.
Prediction: Signs a one-year deal elsewhere — unless Reynolds leaves.
Nate Sudfeld
Position: QB
Age: 30
2022 contract: $1.608 million
Buzz: Sudfeld missed last season with a torn ACL and will have a limited market in free agency. He hasn’t attempted a pass in a regular season game since 2020 and the Lions have their backup quarterback in Hendon Hooker.
Prediction: Re-signs to compete for the No. 3 job once cleared from injury.
Anthony Firkser
Position: TE
Age: 29
2023 contact: $120,000
Buzz: A Harvard grad who might be both the smartest player on the Lions’ roster and the team’s best ping-pong player, Firkser spent most of last season on the practice squad before a December callup amid tight end injuries. He caught one pass for 8 yards in the playoffs and should get a minimum salary deal somewhere in the second wave of free agency.
Prediction: Zylstra’s return means Firkser heads elsewhere as a free agent.
Dan Skipper
Position: OT
Age: 29
2023 contact: $729,000
Buzz: Skipper achieved cult hero status in Detroit after officials wrongly thought he signaled in as an eligible receiver in a December game against the Cowboys. He appeared in 11 games last season and has been on the Lions roster in some form or fashion every year since 2017.
Prediction: It’s inevitable. Skipper will re-sign with the Lions at some point.
Matt Nelson
Position: OT
Age: 28
2023 contact: $1.3 million
Buzz: Nelson opened last season as the Lions’ swing tackle before breaking his ankle in a Week 3 game against the Atlanta Falcons. Nelson has come a long way since signing with the Lions as an undrafted free agent in 2019. The Lions might only have room for one of Skipper or Nelson.
Prediction: Nelson signs elsewhere in the second wave of free agency.
Halapoulivaati Vaitai
Position: OG
Age: 30
2023 contract: $3.185 million
Buzz: Vaitai has made three starts the past two seasons because of back injuries. It’s unclear if he plans to play again, but chances are it won’t be in Detroit if he does.
Prediction: Vaitai retires.
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Defense/special teams (7)
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson
Position: S
Age: 26
2023 contract: $6.5 million
Buzz: Gardner-Johnson signed a one-year deal with the Lions last spring amidst a tepid free agent market. He’s made it clear he wants something longer-term this year, which means he’s likely done in Detroit. Gardner-Johnson still has plenty of good football left in him, but the Lions have three capable young safeties in Kerby Joseph, Ifeatu Melifonwu and Brian Branch.
Prediction: Gardner-Johnson lands the multiyear deal he covets elsewhere.
Kindle Vildor
Position: CB
Age: 26
2023 contract: $280,556
Buzz: Initially signed to the practice squad, Vildor finished last season as the Lions’ No. 2 cornerback and could return to compete for a secondary job in 2024. Holmes mentioned Vildor unprompted at his end-of-season news conference, saying the young cornerback “did a nice job when he was called on to step up.” Vildor had an interception bounce off his facemask in the playoffs, but could be a solid depth play if he returns.
Prediction: Vildor signs a one-year deal to stay in Detroit as cornerback insurance.
Tyson Alualu
Position: DL
Age: 36
2022 contract: $177,744
Buzz: The oldest player on the Lions’ roster last season, Alualu made four tackles in two regular season games and had a rotational role in the playoffs after joining the team in early December. It’s possible he calls it a career after 14 NFL seasons.
Prediction: Alualu waits till summer to decide if he’ll play again in 2024.
Charles Harris
Position: OLB
Age: 29
2023 contract: $3.389 million
Buzz: Harris had 1.5 sacks in 13 games last season but was mostly out of the rotation late in the season. He took a pay cut to stay in Detroit last year and likely has played his last game as a Lion.
Prediction: Harris signs a one-year, minimum salary benefit deal elsewhere.
Romeo Okwara
Position: DE
Age: 28
2023 contract: $2.478 million
Buzz: Okwara had two sacks in 16 games last season and saw a slight uptick in his role late in the year. He hasn’t been an impact player since before tearing his Achilles tendon in 2021, but he showed enough flashes as a pass rusher last season that the Lions or another team should take a flyer on him as veteran insurance for their defensive line.
Prediction: Okwara gets a two-year deal with another team.
Will Harris
Position: DB
Age: 28
2023 contract: $2.59 million
Buzz: Harris had 18 tackles, one interception and one fumble recovery in 17 games last season. He can play cornerback or safety, but is primarily a special teams player at this point in his career. That should be enough to keep him on an NFL roster somewhere.
Prediction: Harris signs a one-year, minimum salary benefit deal elsewhere.
Jake McQuaide
Position: LS
Age: 36
2023 contract: $517,778
Buzz: McQuaide handled long-snapping duties the final nine games last season after Scott Daly was lost to a knee injury. Daly is a restricted free agent but expected to return, which means McQuaide could be looking for a job elsewhere next week.
Prediction: With only 32 long-snapping jobs, McQuaide may have to catch on somewhere in training camp if he wants to play another NFL season.
Contact Dave Birkett at dbirkett@freepress.com. Follow him @davebirkett.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Detroit Lions' NFL free agency predictions 2024: Who stays, who goes
