2024 NFL Mock Draft: Combine shakes up two-round projections

The year’s NFL Scouting Combine didn’t disappoint.

A very talented group of wide receivers and offensive linemen stole the show, led by Texas’ Xavier Worthy, who broke the combine’s 40-yard-dash record when he ran it in 4.21 seconds.

I’ve heard this draft class described as “top-heavy.” Maybe there’s fewer top-tier prospects spread across all the positions than what we’re use to, but I happen to believe there’s a lot of quality depth.

There will be starter-caliber prospects available on Day 3, especially at receiver, on the O-line and at cornerback.

With free agency right around the corner, I’ll be expanding the mock to three rounds once the official compensatory picks are announced, but before we do let’s take another crack at projecting the first two rounds.

MOCK PREAMBLE

This is an attempt at figuring out the best players available in this season’s draft class, and which teams they’d match up well with considering the current draft order courtesy of NFL.com. The closer we get to draft day, the more I’ll attempt to match what teams will actually do with their draft picks as opposed to what I believe they should do.

Last season, I was the third-most accurate NFL draft prognosticator in print, according to The Huddle Report. I’m tied for first overall (out of 172) over the past five years.

The draft has become the Super Bowl of the NFL’s second season — the NFL doesn’t have an off-season — and a mock version of said draft is meant to educate, perhaps even entertain. At very least, it helps you pass the time.

Follow me on X (formerly known as Twitter) @UTEddieBrown so we can continue the conversation.

Here’s an updated version of my 2024 NFL Mock Draft:

First round

1. Chicago from Carolina (2-15) — Caleb Williams, QB, USC, Jr.

It’s very likely the Bears trade Justin Fields before free agency begins next week. General Manager Ryan Poles alluded to as much in interviews while he was in Indianapolis. Williams is special off-platform and will likely become Trojans coach Lincoln Riley’s third quarterback to win the Heisman Trophy and go first overall, joining Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield. Williams is fearless and will force the issue for the sake of making a big play, but he balances the mistakes with magic few other signal-callers can conjure. Top needs: WR, Edge, OL

2. Washington (4-13) — Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina, So.

Will the Commanders’ new GM Adam Peters go all-in and swap picks with the Bears to land Williams, a D.C. native? Or will Peters stay here and decide between the other two bonafide first-round QBs in this draft class: Maye or Jayden Daniels? Both would be a good fit in new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid-type system. Maye’s prototypical size (6-4, 223), elite arm talent and ability as a runner are the combination of tools teams normally invest a top-five pick in. He only did interviews and physicals with teams in Indianapolis, but he absolutely aced the interviews. Top needs: Edge, QB, DB

3. New England (4-13) — Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU, Sr.

Eliot Wolf, the top executive in charge of personnel, now has control of the 53-man roster and will reportedly be working closely with new head coach Jerod Mayo. Addressing the quarterback position this off-season, whether in free agency or the draft, has to be the top priority. Daniels’ skill-set and stature is very reminiscent of three-time All-Pro QB Randall Cunningham. Top needs: QB, T, WR

4. Arizona (4-13) — Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio St., Jr.

Harrison to the Cardinals here is starting to feel inevitable. If you were to “Weird Science” a wide receiver, the computer would almost certainly produce the No. 1 player on my Big Board. The consensus All-American is a route tactician who features prototypical size (6-foot-4, 205 pounds), strong hands and athleticism with Hall of Fame NFL lineage (he’s the son of Colts legend Marvin Harrison). Top needs: WR, CB, G

5. L.A. Chargers (5-12) — Joe Alt, T, Notre Dame, Jr.

For me, this pick comes down to a pass catcher or pass protector. Either way, new head coach Jim Harbaugh and GM Joe Hortiz will have franchise QB Justin Herbert’s best interests in mind. Alt cemented his elite status at the combine in Indy. The massive Irish tackle (6-8, 321) only allowed a single sack in 774 pass-block snaps the last two years and he’s a true finisher in the run game. Top needs: CB, RB, DL

6. New York Giants (6-11) — Malik Nabers, WR, LSU, Jr.

The G-Men will definitely be in the quarterback discussion leading up to the draft, but if they pass on a signal-caller, they’ll need to find Daniel Jones a true No. 1 receiver. Nabers’ body control and route-running are top-notch, plus he’s elite after the catch and a terror in the open field. The gap between him and Harrison isn’t as wide as some may think. He only met with teams at the combine, and plans to do his on-field work at LSU’s Pro Day on March 27th. Top needs: RB, G, CB

7. Tennessee (6-11) — Olu Fashanu, T, Penn St., Jr.

It looks like Will Levis will be starting in 2024 for the Titans, so GM Ran Carthon’s next assignment is upgrading Levis’ protection. Fashanu and Levis were teammates for the tackle’s freshman season in Happy Valley before the QB transferred to Kentucky. There’s still room for improvement in the run game, but Fashanu is already an elite pass-protector — he didn’t allow a single sack in 733 career pass-block snaps for the Nittany Lions. His participation in Indy was cut short due to a right thigh injury he suffered during his first attempt at the 40-yard-dash, but he believes he’ll be fine for Penn State’s Pro Day on March 15. Top needs: WR, CB, OL

8. Atlanta (7-10) — Dallas Turner, Edge, Alabama, Jr.

GM Terry Fontenot will likely address his QB need by signing Kirk Cousins in free agency or trading for Justin Fields. Turner was overshadowed by the NFL’s Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson Jr. his previous two seasons at Tuscaloosa, but the AP All-American added some bulk to his frame and displayed more power to go with his already impressive speed-rush capabilities last year. His impressive performance in Indianapolis — 4.46 40-yard dash and a 40.5 inch vertical jump — validates the former five-star recruit’s immense potential at the next level. Top needs: QB, WR, Edge

9. Chicago (7-10) — Rome Odunze, WR, Washington, Jr.

The Bears stay in the Pac-12 to boost Williams’ offensive weaponry. Odunze features elite size (6-3, 212), speed and strength with excellent hands. He had 32 catches of 20-plus yards in 2023, second most in the FBS (only Nabers had more). Odunze is also a reliable blocker in the run game. He’d pair nicely with DJ Moore. Top needs: WR, Edge, OL

10. New York Jets (7-10) — Taliese Fuaga, T, Oregon St., Jr.

Protecting a 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers has to be the highest priority for GM Joe Douglas if he wants Rodgers to last more than four plays in 2024. Fuaga is a well-rounded mauler at tackle and could be the Beavers’ first offensive lineman ever selected in the first round of the NFL draft. He was one of the more impressive prospects in Mobile during Senior Bowl week. Top needs: OL, WR, S

11. Minnesota (7-10) — Jared Verse, Edge, Florida St., Jr.

I anticipate the Vikings doing their due diligence on this class of quarterbacks (and potentially moving up in the draft) if they’re unable to re-sign Kirk Cousins, but sack artist Danielle Hunter will be one of the most sought after free agents this off-season, and GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah would be fortunate here if one of the top edge rushers in the draft were still available. Like Penn State’s Fashanu, Verse would’ve likely been a first-round pick had he declared after last season. He regularly wins with strength, and features violent hands with NFL-caliber explosiveness at the snap. Top needs: QB, Edge, OL

12. Denver (8-9) — JJ McCarthy, QB, Michigan, Jr.

With Russell Wilson officially out of the picture, coach Sean Payton will be searching for his type of quarterback. McCarthy led a run-heavy, pro-style offense for the National Champions in Ann Arbor, but he’s flashed impressive arm talent, especially with intermediate throws, with big-play ability as a thrower and runner when called upon. Top needs: Edge, LB, CB

13. Las Vegas (8-9) — Quinyon Mitchell, CB, Toledo, Jr.

This is another spot where a new coaching staff likely means a new QB, but there’s already four off the board. Mitchell features elite speed (4.33 40-yard dash in Indy) and prototypical size (6-0, 195) for the position. He’s a proven ball-hawk — six interceptions and 37 pass breakups the past two years — who can play outside or inside and wins with top-tier athleticism and physicality. Some teams might hold his lack of experience in press coverage against him, but he was clearly the best cornerback in Mobile at the Senior Bowl. Top needs: QB, DL, IOL

14. New Orleans (9-8) — Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama, So.

Shutdown corner (when healthy) Marshon Lattimore has been the subject of trade rumors due to a large option bonus that will be paid out a week before the 2024 season kicks off. Based on upside, Arnold could be the top cornerback on some draft boards. He’s relatively inexperienced at the position — he was a former safety recruit — but he’s been one of the better run defenders at the position and has proven a quick-study in coverage. He produced a SEC-best 17 passes defended and five interceptions in 2023. Top needs: LB, DL, DB

15. Indianapolis (9-8) — Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia, Jr.

Wide receiver will be GM Chris Ballard’s top priority if the Colts lose Michael Pittman Jr. in free agency, but re-signing Pittman and adding Bowers to the mix would be a boon for Anthony Richardson’s development. The two-time Mackey Award winner is one of the most well-rounded tight end prospects to ever enter the NFL, and could develop into a premier chess piece with All-Pro potential. Top needs: WR, DB, DL

16. Seattle (9-8) — Byron Murphy II, DL, Texas, Jr.

Losing Leonard Williams in free agency could make this pick a necessity. In hopes of helping the Seahawks lessen the gap with NFC West rival San Francisco, new head coach Mike Macdonald will want to build the defense in the image of the Ravens group he coordinated into a top-5 unit the last two seasons. Murphy is a former four-star recruit who shares a similar skill-set and physical traits with Baltimore Ravens All-Pro Justin Madubuike. As a true junior, he’s one of the highest-ceiling D-linemen in this draft class, plays with great balance and features an explosive first step. Top needs: LB, DL, IOL

17. Jacksonville (9-8) — Brian Thomas Jr., WR, LSU, Jr.

The Jaguars announced they will use their franchise tag on Josh Allen after he produced 17.5 sacks last season, but that means the odds of Calvin Ridley leaving in free agency just went up. Thomas’ physical gifts are off the charts. He’s 6-foot-3, and he ran a 4.33 40-yard-dash while hitting 22.91 mph on the GPS at the combine. Top needs: WR, Edge, IOL

18. Cincinnati (9-8) — Jer’Zhan Newton, DL, Illinois, Jr.

The Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year would be a good option to replace DJ Reader if he leaves in free agency. Newton may be undersized (6-2, 304) for some teams, but he’s been a disruptive force the last two seasons against the run and pass. He underwent surgery in January to repair a partial Jones fracture in his foot and didn’t participate in last week’s combine, but he’s expected to be recovered in time to work out for teams before the draft. Top needs: WR, TE, DL

19. L.A. Rams (10-7) — Cooper DeJean, DB, Iowa, Jr.

We witnessed the Rams’ defense undergo a youth movement last season. Adding difference makers in the secondary and pass-rushers via free agency and the draft should allow the group to take a step forward in 2024. DeJean can play inside or outside at cornerback, and even safety due to his size (6-0, 203) and speed combo. He’s also one of this draft’s premier playmakers. DeJean didn’t participate at the combine because he’s still working his way back from a leg injury he sustained late last season, which is a shame, because he almost certainly would’ve been one of the highlights. Top needs: IOL, DB, LB

20. Pittsburgh (10-7) — Jackson Powers-Johnson, C, Oregon, Jr.

If GM Omar Khan adds a QB to compete with Kenny Pickett, he’ll likely trade for Justin Fields, or sign Russell Wilson or Ryan Tannehill in free agency. The Steelers haven’t had a serviceable center since Maurkice Pouncey retired after the 2020 season. Powers-Johnson entered the Senior Bowl as a fringe first-rounder, and only helped himself with his performance. He was an unanimous All-American and first-ever Pac-12 player to win the Rimington Award (nation’s top center). Top needs: CB, C, WR

21. Miami (11-6) — JC Latham, T, Alabama, Jr.

Durability has become a concern for the Dolphins’ O-line, with Terron Armstead, Robert Hunt and Connor Williams all missing time. Latham is a super-sized tackle (6-6, 342) with elite strength and movement skills. Top needs: DL, IOL, WR

22. Philadelphia (11-6) — Nate Wiggins, CB, Clemson, Jr.

The Eagles’ aging secondary struggled mightily last season, especially down the stretch. Wiggins might need to add some strength to his frame (6-1, 173) — he gets pushed around against the run — but he already has elite ball skills, athletic abilities and is capable of thriving in man or zone coverage. Wiggins suffered an injury while running a blazing 4.28 40-yard dash in Indianapolis, but he’s expected to be good to go for Clemson’s Pro Day on April 1. Top needs: RB, WR, LB

23. Houston from Cleveland (11-6) — Laiatu Latu, Edge, UCLA, Sr.

I anticipate head coach DeMeco Ryans will continue to build a defense to pair with CJ Stroud’s fireworks on offense, likely based on the blueprint he learned in San Francisco (all pass rushers, all the time). Latu specializes in hand-to-hand combat, features a pro-ready arsenal of pass-rush moves and became the first Bruin to win the Lombardi Award (outstanding lineman) and Hendricks Award (best defensive end) last season. Medical evaluations of a neck injury the Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year suffered during his time with Washington will have a big impact on his draft stock. Top needs: T, DL, CB

24. Dallas (12-5) — Troy Fautanu, T, Washington, Jr.

Both Tyron Smith and Tyler Biadasz are free agents. Fautanu’s heavy hands and impressive athleticism has been on display for the Huskies the last two seasons. He’s a Pro Bowl-level talent. Top needs: OL, CB, RB

25. Green Bay (9-8) — Amarius Mims, T, Georgia, Jr.

All-Pro tackle David Bakhtiari is a candidate to get released. Mims is still very raw, and has dealt with multiple ankle injuries this season, but he towers (6-8, 340) over most of the competition and he moves easy considering his size. His athletic potential and his 2022 tape will be hard to ignore. Top needs: G, CB, S

26. Tampa Bay (9-8) — Graham Barton, OL, Duke, Sr.

I feel like Baker Mayfield has done enough to keep the Buccaneers from targeting a QB in the first round — the playoff victory over the Eagles certainly didn’t hurt — so GM Jason Licht can focus on replacing retiring Pro Bowl center Ryan Jensen. I believe Barton could thrive anywhere on the O-line in the NFL. Some scouts will question his size/length for the tackle position — he’s 6-5, 313 pounds, but his arms measured a tick under 33 inches — although 34 of his 39 career starts were at left tackle with the Blue Devils (the other five were at center). He’s a technically sound, sticky blocker with quickness and competitive tendencies that deserves first-round consideration. Top needs: IOL, S, LB

27. Arizona from Houston (10-7) — Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama, Jr.

The Cardinals landed the best player in this draft (Marvin Harrison Jr.) with the No. 4 overall pick in the first round. Here they can continue to build a young and talented secondary. McKinstry started as a true freshman in a Nick Saban defense and was first-team All-SEC his sophomore season. He features solid size (5-11, 199) with speed and brings physicality in coverage and against the run. There’s no panic in his game. He’s also provides value as a punt-returner. McKinstry didn’t workout at the combine because doctors found a Jones fracture in his right foot, but he plans to participate in Alabama’s Pro Day on March 20. Top needs: WR, CB, G

28. Buffalo (11-6) — Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas, Jr.

Stefon Diggs doesn’t seem happy and Gabe Davis will likely be seeking a big payday elsewhere in free agency. Mitchell began his career at Georgia, where he won back-to-back national championships. In 2023, he transferred to Austin to be closer to his daughter. He’s a fluid route runner who features prototypical size (6-2, 205), elite athleticism and has a nose for the end zone, especially in big games. Top needs: Edge, S, WR

29. Detroit (12-5) — Kamari Lassiter, CB, Georgia, Jr.

With one of the best offenses in football, it’s clear GM Brad Holmes will continue to focus on building an equally talented defense. Lassiter is a two-year starter in the SEC despite being a true junior. He’s 5-foot-11, 186 pounds, tough as nails and features enough straight line speed to thrive on the perimeter. Top needs: CB, DL, G

30. Baltimore (13-4) — Keon Coleman, WR, Florida St., Jr.

It seems the Ravens are perennially in need of help at receiver. Pairing Coleman with dynamo Zay Flowers would stop that vicious cycle. He was a Biletnikoff Award semifinalist after transferring from Michigan State. Coleman features a combination of size (6-3, 213), strength and speed uncommon in receivers. A lack of lateral agility hinders his ability to get consistent separation, but he doesn’t really need to with his above-the-rim mentality and elite ball skills. Top needs: G, DL, WR

31. San Francisco (12-5) — Chop Robinson, Edge, Penn St., Jr.

In the aftermath of another devastating Super Bowl loss, there are two points of emphasis the 49ers could use to guide them back to another championship opportunity. First, upgrade Brock Purdy’s pass protection. Second, pump some juice back into a once fearsome pass rush. Robinson’s still developing his technique, but his first-step explosiveness and speed-to-power variation is a rare commodity. Combining his extremely rare athletic traits with defensive line coach Kris Kocurek’s guidance could create a nightmare for the rest of the league. Top needs: DL, OL, DB

32. Kansas City (11-6) — Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas, Jr.

The champs have one wide receiver on their current roster who doesn’t force Patrick Mahomes to constantly turn water into wine, and that’s Rashee Rice. I don’t believe we’ve seen the best of Worthy during his time in Austin. He’s an elite vertical threat who can struggle against physical press coverage, but you can’t teach his world-class speed. Building up his play strength in the NFL could unlock another level. Top needs: WR, DL, T

Second round

33. Carolina — Tyler Guyton, T, Oklahoma, Jr.
If Bryce Young has any hopes of reaching his full potential, the Panthers will need to significantly upgrade one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Guyton is a former defensive end who primarily played right tackle for the Sooners, but has the prototypical size (6-8, 322) and premium athletic traits to switch to the left side in the pros. He’s still developing his technique, but there’s so much to work with here. Top needs: OL, Edge, WR

34. New England — Troy Franklin, WR, Oregon, Jr.

35. Arizona — Jordan Morgan, T, Arizona, Sr.

36. Washington — Bralen Trice, Edge, Washington, Jr.

37. L.A. Chargers — T’Vondre Sweat, DL, Texas, Sr.

By adding Notre Dame’s Alt and Sweat, the Chargers become tougher and more dogged in the trenches. The Outland Trophy winner features an immovable base (6-4, 366) against the run and is capable of collapsing the pocket as a pass rusher. Conditioning will be a concern, but Sweat is nimble on his feet for someone pushing 370 pounds. You simply can’t teach his size. Top needs: CB, RB, DL

38. Tennessee — Ladd McConkey, WR, Georgia, Jr.

39. N.Y. Giants — Ennis Rakestraw, CB, Missouri, Sr.

40. Washington from Chicago — Tyler Nubin, S, Minnesota, Sr.

41. Green Bay from N.Y. Jets — Kamren Kitchens, S, Miami, Jr.

42. Minnesota — Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington, Sr.

43. Atlanta — Roman Wilson, WR, Michigan, Sr.

44. Las Vegas — Bo Nix, QB, Oregon, Sr.

45. New Orleans from Denver — Payton Wilson, LB, NC State, Sr.

46. Indianapolis — Mike Sainristil, CB, Michigan, Sr.

47. N.Y. Giants from Seattle — Zach Frazier, C, West Virginia, Jr.

48. Jacksonville — Cooper Beebe, OL, Kansas St., Sr.

49. Cincinnati — Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas, Jr.

50. Philadelphia from New Orleans — Trey Benson, RB, Florida St., Jr.

51. Pittsburgh — Kingsley Suamataia, T, BYU, So.

52. L.A. Rams — Edgerrin Cooper, LB, Texas A&M, Jr.

The Rams’ defense played much better than expected last season, a testament to the coaching staff, but there’s still holes in the front seven. Cooper catapulted himself into a borderline first-round prospect with a dominant junior season for the Aggies — 83 tackles, 17 tackles for loss and eight sacks. Tack on his top coverage skills, and you have one of the best linebackers in a weaker-than-usual class. Top needs: IOL, DB, LB

53. Philadelphia — Junior Colson, LB, Michigan, Jr.

54. Cleveland — Braden Fiske, DL, Florida St., Sr.

There are several players on an elite Browns defense facing free agency. The Western Michigan transfer wins with strength and athleticism — he made a lot of money with his combine performance. Fiske’s hand usage is a work-in-progress, but he’s very quick off the ball considering his size (6-4, 292) and is developing a solid pass-rush repertoire. Top needs: LB, DL, Edge

55. Miami — Kris Jenkins, DL, Michigan, Sr.

56. Dallas — TJ Tampa, CB, Iowa St., Sr.

57. Tampa Bay — Darius Robinson, Edge, Missouri, Sr.

58. Green Bay — Chris Braswell, Edge, Alabama, Sr.

59. Houston — Patrick Paul, T, Houston, Jr.

60. Buffalo — Javon Bullard, S, Georgia, Jr.

61. Detroit — Ruke Orhorhoro, DL, Clemson, Sr.

62. Baltimore — Christian Haynes, G, Connecticut, Sr.

63. San Francisco — Kiran Amegadjie, T, Yale, Sr.

64. Kansas City — Blake Fisher, T, Notre Dame, So.