Breakdown of four phases of the Bitcoin Halving cycle
With Bitcoin Halving slated to happen in April 2024, there is speculation about how things will roll out for Bitcoin or BTC prices in the market. Most of it is based on how the prices have been pushed to an ATH when Halving happened 3 times before. Analysts have now broken down the entire segment into four phases – Pre-Halving rally, final Pre-Halving retrace, re-accumulation, and parabolic uptrend. They are all driven by the time window and the nature of Bitcoin’s performance.
Pre-Halving rally
The first phase – The pre-halving rally – is believed to happen 60 days before the actual Halving event. This roughly translates to 2 months when the coin looks to achieve an ATH. Bitcoin has already done that and will transition into the next phase. This is evident when the BTC price recently pulled back by 18%.
The pre-halving rally is potentially over, and the market is now into the next stage.
Final pre-halving retrace
As the title suggests, this pertains to prices retracing to a lower value after hitting a new ATH – ATH. The drop by ~18% in the percent days created a space where the token could take a hit without hesitation. The stage is known to happen 28-14 days before the Halving process.
The records reflect this, with a drop of 38% and 20% in 2016 and 2020, respectively. However, since the token has navigated its way back to a value of more than $70,000, it is right to assume that re-accumulation may have started already. The pre-halving phase happens for three reasons – to offer the final bargain before the Halving process, for a range low for future prices, and to set up the stage for the next phase.
Re-accumulation
That next stage refers to re-accumulation, wherein traders buy the dip. The same activity pushes Bitcoin back to a higher value. Re-accumulation is triggered only when the Pre-Halving retrace has hit the bottom. The transition to re-accumulation is hard to identify. It can be assumed only when the prices gain traction on the charts.
A higher accumulation triggers an uptick for BTC. For reference, the token is listed at $70,627.48 when writing this article. This is a surge of 5.62% in the last 7 days and 19.05% in the last 30 days. The phase can last for several weeks or even 150 days.
Parabolic uptrend
Parabolic uptrend brings accelerated growth for Bitcoin. It could last more than a year, roughly 385 days. The upcoming parabolic uptrend is expected to last for half of that. The phase happens only after re-accumulation has concluded. It could take a while before it hits the gas for a drive.
Conclusion
Bitcoin Halving is one of the most anticipated moments, especially since it is happening in the next 21-25 days. The prices are teased to rise and cause a ripple effect across the crypto sphere.
