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Argentina vs New Zealand betting tips
- New Zealand -17 points – Evens with BetVictor
- Over 15.5 New Zealand points first half – 5/6 with Betway
- Aaron Smith anytime tryscorer – 10/3 with bet365
For the ninth time in 10 Rugby World Cups, New Zealand are gearing up for a semi-final showdown and look well set to go one step further at the expense of Argentina.
UK betting sites make the All Blacks heavy favourites to come out on top in Friday’s last-four encounter at the Stade de France having impressively seen off Ireland at the same venue less than a week ago.
Victory over the world ranked No 1 side was a cathartic moment for head coach Ian Foster having nearly been sacked following a home series defeat to the Irish last year, only to hang on to his job.
Foster, with a little help from ex-Ireland coach Joe Schmidt, has since overseen a dramatic turnaround in fortunes that’s brought New Zealand to within 80 minutes of a fifth World Cup final.
Argentina are chasing a first final appearance having twice gone out at the semi-final stage previously and after a slow start, the Pumas have steadily grown into the competition.
They dug deep to see off Wales in the quarter-final after finishing runner-up to England in Pool D but something extra special may be required to oust New Zealand.
All Blacks to banish ghosts of 2019
Although New Zealand are in fine form and have won 33 of the previous 36 Test matches against Argentina, they won’t be underestimating their semi-final opponents having fallen at this hurdle four years ago.
England upset the All Blacks in the 2019 World Cup semi-finals and the spectre of that defeat haunts those still involved with New Zealand.
The three-time World Cup winners have been on a long journey to get back to this point, including going through the worst year in All Blacks history in 2022.
That was the same year they suffered a first-ever home defeat to Argentina, one of two victories the Pumas have enjoyed over New Zealand, both of which have come on Foster’s watch.
But since Foster added Schmidt to the coaching staff, the All Blacks have seen a reversal in fortunes and the latest Rugby World Cup odds make them second favourites to win the tournament.
Previous weaknesses, such as the set piece and the maul, have become strengths, while New Zealand have been clinical in attack.
New Zealand are top of nearly every attacking metric at the World Cup, including most points (281), most tries (41), clean breaks (70), metres carried (348) and many more.
They will throw a lot at Argentina, whose previous World Cup semi-final defeats have been by 14 and 24 points, while the combined score of their last two meetings with the All Blacks is 94-15.
The Pumas’ victory in the game before those comprehensive losses should mean New Zealand don’t look beyond the South Americans, minimising the risk of an upset.
There are too many holes in Argentina’s game for them to contend with the All Blacks if they are on song, with issues at the scrum and a lack of discipline likely to prove costly.
New Zealand’s last five wins over Argentina would have all covered the 17-point handicap set for Friday and they may book a spot in the final with minimal fuss.
Favourites can make fast start
The forecast calls for rain in Paris on Friday evening, making conditions tricky and tempering enthusiasm for a high-scoring game.
However, one 'overs' market that does appeal is New Zealand’s first half team total with the All Blacks having shown a tendency to make fast starts and the ability to play in any conditions – they made zero handling errors against Ireland.
They scored 18 points in the first 40 minutes against Ireland and were rampant during the pool stages, hanging 49 points on Italy in the opening stanza.
Mark Tele'a returns on the wing after missing the quarter-final win through disciplinary matters, further strengthening New Zealand’s attacking options for a fixture in which they’ve averaged over 34 points per game across the last 10 meetings.
Argentina gave up 14 first-half points to Japan in their final pool game and could have given up more than 10 to Wales in the quarter-finals.
If they don’t make a better start on Friday, New Zealand could be out of sight early.
Tip: Over 15.5 New Zealand points first half – 5/6 with Betway
Smith may expose Argentina weakness
With 18 different tryscorers at the Rugby World Cup so far, there are arguments to be made for many of New Zealand’s squad scoring against Argentina.
But of all the contenders, scrum-half Aaron Smith’s price of 10/3 with bet365 stands out as he seeks to add to the hat-trick he bagged against Italy in the pool stage.
The 34-year-old had been an infrequent tryscorer for the All Blacks but has seen an uptick in production recently, scoring seven tries in his last 12 Tests.
Argentina have given up tries to scrum-halves in each of their last two games, while Smith went over in New Zealand’s win in Mendoza earlier this year.
Updated by
Last Updated: 14th March 2024, 07:22 AM
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