What FC Cincinnati needs to do to beat CF Monterrey in Champions Cup

MONTERREY, Mexico – Through the few flaws, the sight of a familiar goal-scorer undoing the club, and being shut out at home, FC Cincinnati's Thursday defeat to CF Monterrey had its usefulness.

Monterrey narrowly escaped TQL Stadium in CONCACAF Champions Cup Round of 16 play with a Brandon Vazquez goal providing the lone score in the 1-0 match. Monterrey wasn't a pressing threat to extend its lead in the two-match, aggregate-score series, though, and therein lies the value of the game: FC Cincinnati gave itself more than a fighting chance in the series.

The club has the opportunity to score an upset in Thursday's decisive second leg at BBVA Stadium in Northern Mexico.

Thursday's match (10:15 p.m. ET) will determine which club advances to the Champions Cup quarterfinals. That team will face the winner of the all-Major League Soccer Inter Miami CF-Nashville SC series, which concludes Wednesday in Fort Lauderdale, Florida.

More: 10-man CF Monterrey outlasts FC Cincinnati in Champions Cup | Replay

More: CF Monterrey's Brandon Vazquez: I wouldn't celebrate a goal vs. FC Cincinnati

"Feeling good about the group," FC Cincinnati head coach Pat Noonan said during a Wednesday news conference. "It's pretty much the group that has us in the position that we're in but the performance from the first leg was really strong. I've already mentioned it but the disappointment just in the score line and kind of what that means for the second leg and the challenges that we'll face against a difficult opponent, so I think it's important how we navigate a 90-minute game and understand the need for a goal but the need to be defensively very strong so we can . . . . get a feel for what the game's going to look like."

FC Cincinnati played some of the biggest matches in its history in 2023, including hosting a U.S. Open Cup semifinal as well as three MLS Cup playoff matches. The games in the Monterrey series are comparable in importance, and bigger in terms of the opponent's significance in the world's game. So, a win against "Rayados" might qualify as the most important in FCC's growing history.

While FC Cincinnati enters Thursday's contest playing catch-up against Monterrey, the 1-0 deficit is hardly insurmountable, especially in the historically wonky CONCACAF region, where the Champions Cup is apt to produce some surprises.

Monterrey probably has the momentum in the series via its weekend victory over Matazlan FC, but they didn't exactly blow the doors off that club. With some starters removed early in the contest, Rayados scored two first-half goals and held on for a 2-1 win.

Meanwhile, FC Cincinnati struggled to find the back of the net again in a scoreless MLS draw with D.C. United that marked the club being blanked on home sod for the third time in four competitive outings at TQL Stadium in 2024.

In the context of FCC's regular-season, the lack of goals is a problem the club has plenty of time to find solutions for. The Champions Cup is here and now, though, and Cincinnati will need at least one goal to have any hope of staying alive in its first-ever continental competition.

How FC Cincinnati can advance

The objective is simple for FC Cincinnati at Monterrey: Win, or go home and focus on the MLS regular season until the midsummer Leagues Cup.

There are a few considerations as far as Thursday's score line goes. For instance, if FC Cincinnati leads 1-0 after 90 minutes, the series would be tied at 1-1. Normally, the team with more goals scored on the road would hold the tiebreak advantage. This is known as the away-goals rule, but seeing as both clubs would have an equal number of road goals, they'd have to break their tie in extra-time and, if necessary, penalty kicks after that.

The away-goals tiebreaker doesn't apply in extra time. Also, 1-1 is the only score that would produce extra time. If Monterrey gets on the board Thursday, FCC would need to win the match inside the 90 minutes.

"We understand the score line but we have to go win a game," Noonan said. "If that's in the form of one-nil, then we get into the extra period and position ourselves to navigate that. If it goes into penalty (kicks), when we get to that stage, we'll navigate that. But we understand if it's a scoreline other than one-nil, then we need to win the game (outright) and we'll advance. It's pretty straightforward but it won't be as simple once the game starts and how we get there."

MLS-Liga MX bragging rights

MLS would like you to think of Leagues Cup as the event that determines whether it or Liga MX, the top flight of soccer in Mexico, is superior. But as the fledgling tournament builds history and awareness, many correctly look to Champions Cup, the more-storied club tournament of North and Central America, and the Caribbean, to decide which leagues are superior.

So far, the Champions Cup is providing mixed results to indicate which league is superior.

On Tuesday, Philadelphia Union and Orlando City were trounced in the second legs of their respective series. Pachuca thumped Philadelphia, 6-0, and Orlando was barely competitive in a 4-2 loss against Tigers UANL, CF Monterrey's crosstown rival. The 4-2 scoreline wasn't that close, either.

Monterrey and Cincinnati are the only other MLS-Liga MX head-to-head in the Round of 16.

MLS will have at least two clubs in the quarterfinals, but that's only because of two all-MLS Round of 16 matchups. Meanwhile, Liga MX has two clubs through to the last eight, a third coming via an all-Mexican Round of 16 matchup, and possibly a fourth if Monterrey bests Cincinnati.

Basically, MLS will have strong contenders in the quarterfinals. If Lionel Messi's Inter Miami outlasts Nashville, there are only good options for Messi's next opponent, which would be Monterrey, the powerhouse and current Liga MX leader, or FC Cincinnati, the Supporters' Shield holder.

But MLS could still really use a strong showing and a win from FCC to even out Tuesday's lopsided Liga MX wins.

"We're not playing for (league) pride," Noonan said. "We're playing to win a game and like I said... that'll be very difficult based on what we weren't able to do in the first leg to be in a better spot. But it's tough to come play against top Liga MX teams and win. We've seen the history of how we (as MLS) fared in the competition and last night certainly wasn't a good representation of the league in terms of the results. You never want to see score lines like that where we're (MLS) on the wrong end of it. We're always hoping for good results for our league in this competition and hopefully we can find a way to get a good result (Thursday) but it won't be for pride. It's with an expectation to go and play well and advance in this competition."

The game

Kickoff: 10:15 p.m. ET, Thursday | BBVA Stadium; Monterrey, Nuevo León, Mexico.

Broadcast: FS2; ESPN 1530 (radio)

All-time series: CF Monterrey leads the all-time series against FC Cincinnati after winning the clubs' first-ever meeting in the first leg of this Champions Cup Round of 16 series.

Cincinnati.com prediction: CF Monterrey 3, FC Cincinnati 1.

FC Cincinnati

Record (MLS): 1-0-2, five points. (2-1-0 in Champions Cup).

Goals for (all competitions): Eight.

Goals against (all competitions): Two.

Head coach: Pat Noonan, third season as head coach

Projected starting XI: Roman Celentano, goalkeeper; Luca Arellano, left wing back; Ian Murphy, center back; Matt Miazga, center back; Miles Robinson, center back; Yuya Kubo right wing back; Obinna Nwobodo, midfielder; Pavel Bucha, midfielder; Luciano Acosta, midfielder; Corey Baird, forward; Aaron Boupendza, forward.

CF Monterrey

Regular season record: 7-0-4, 25 points; first place in Liga MX (3-0-0 in Champions Cup).

Goals for (all competitions): 29.

Goals against (all competitions): Eight.

Head coach: Fernando Ortiz

Projected starting XI: Esteban Andrada (GK), Érick Aguirre (right back), Víctor Guzmán (center back), Héctor Moreno (center back), Jesús Gallardo (left back), Jesús Corona (midfielder/winger)), Jorge Rodríguez (midfielder), Maximiliano Meza (midfielder/winger), Germán Berterame (forward), Brandon Vazquez (forward).

This article originally appeared on Cincinnati Enquirer: What FC Cincinnati needs to do to beat CF Monterrey in Champions Cup