NEW YORK — The University of Kentucky is about 680 miles from Rutgers and has eight more NCAA championships in men’s basketball. But the Wildcats’ dismal NCAA Tournament performance should serve as a cautionary tale for Rutgers heading into next season.
Like Rutgers, No. 3 Kentucky featured two freshmen who are projected NBA lottery picks (along with several other freshmen who are projected as future pros), yet they were stunned in the first round by No. 14 Oakland on Thursday.
Oakland’s best player, Jack Gohlke, dropped 10 three-pointers on the Wildcats and turns 25 years old in December. He’s in his first year of Division 1 basketball after spending five at Division 2 Hillsdale in Michigan. He redshirted as a freshman, then played for four seasons before transferring to Oakland and taking his COVID-related fifth season.
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“I know they have draft picks and I know I’m not going to the NBA, but I know on any given night, I can compete with those type of guys, and I know our team can compete with those type of guys,” Gohlke said. “That’s why I was so confident going into it, and that’s why I say we’re not a Cinderella because when we play our A game we can be the best team on the floor.”
Kentucky — coached by John Calipari, who is suddenly on the hot seat — features two projected top-five picks in guards Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard, along with fellow freshmen and Camden natives D.J. Wagner and Aaron Bradshaw.
What does all this mean for Rutgers?
It means that the days of elite freshmen — guys like five-star prospects and projected one-and-dones like Dylan Harper of Don Bosco Prep and Ace Bailey of McEachern (Ga.) — leading teams deep into the NCAA Tournament appear to be finished.
In the one-and-done era, only two teams that relied heavily on such freshmen — Kentucky in 2012 with Anthony Davis and New Jersey native Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Duke in 2015 with Jahlil Okafor, Justice Winslow and Tyus Jones — have cut down the nets.
“The era of taking these young freshmen and trying to play against older players is over,” said Jay Wright, who won two national titles and reached four Final Fours at Villanova. “I think [Calipari] did a phenomenal job with these guys all year, getting them to be as successful as they were. You can see they’re playing against grown men.
“The guys on Kentucky will be far better pros than any of these guys on Oakland or any of these guys in the tournament. But they’re not as good college basketball players. At this point in their career, they’re not as disciplined.”
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In today’s transfer portal and NIL world, it’s fine to have an elite freshmen or two, but teams had better complement them with experienced veterans who have been through their share of college battles and can compete physically with older players who are stronger physically and mentally.
Look no further than UConn, which features projected lottery pick Steph Castle, the Big East Freshman of the Year. He’s an integral part of UConn’s bid to become the first team since Florida in 2006-07 to win back-to-back NCAA championships. But he’s also surrounded by veterans like Rutgers transfer Cam Spencer and East Carolina transfer Tristen Newton, a first-team AP-All America selection.
“I think, No. 1, you’ve got to insulate big-time freshmen like Steph Castle around the core of returners to your program every year and then supplement with the portal,” UConn coach and Jersey City native Dan Hurley said. “So you can’t miss on high school kids, you can’t miss on player development. You’ve got to do it in a strategic way.
“And Jaylin Stewart is another freshman that right now is helping us as a freshman but has a chance to be a star as a sophomore. So there’s a timing and a planning that comes — the way that you construct and architect your roster. And it’s got to be a mix of portal, high school players, insulated by also a core of returners to your program.”
Rutgers coach Steve Pikiell and his staff will be watching the portal after the departures of Cliff Omoruyi, Mawot Mag, Antonio Chol, Antwone Woolfolk and Derek Simpson. Omoruyi is drawing interest from several high-major teams, including St. John’s and Rick Pitino.
The Scarlet Knights can, and should, win their share of games with Harper and Bailey. The duo has made clear their desire to contend for a Final Four and national championship in what figures to be their lone year at Rutgers, followed by an army of NBA scouts.
“I want to go out there and go get a national championship” at Rutgers,” Harper said in December on ESPNU. “The class we have is very special.”
But one look at the entire landscape of this year’s tournament shows that the days of freshmen making big impacts appear to have gone the way of the pay phone and the land line.
“It’s not just the SEC, it’s across the board,” ESPN’s Seth Greenberg said Saturday on air, adding that “very, very few” freshman “are having an impact on college basketball today.”
After pointing out the transfers impacting UConn (Spencer and Newton) and fellow No. 1 seed Houston (LJ Cryer), Greenberg rattled off several other top teams’ lack of reliance on youngsters.
“Purdue, they’re not messing around with freshmen,” he said. “Arizona, they’re not playing any freshmen. Tennessee, no freshman. [Gonzaga], no freshmen. Marquette, no freshmen. Michigan State, no freshmen.
“Know what everyone’s doing? Building their roster through the portal and they’re getting older and they’re staying older through the portal.”
Greenberg pointed out that No. 12 James Madison, which throttled No. 5 Wisconsin, 72-61, Friday night at Barclays Center, starts five seniors, four of whom are fifth-year guys, and No. 12 Grand Canyon, which beat No. 5 Saint Mary’s, also relies on older players.
“Look at the makeups of the rosters of the teams that are winning in college basketball today,” Greenberg added. “They’re older, they’re more mature, they’re tougher, they’re more physical.
“One-and-done is great. The new one-and-done is the transfer portal.”
Of course, next year will be a fascinating test case, for Rutgers, and for Kentucky and Duke, which both bring in huge recruiting classes filled with five-star prospects. Duke will feature Cooper Flagg, the projected No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, and Khaman Maluach, the projected No. 3 pick. Most observers would be shocked if they don’t have an impact right away on the college game.
“We’ve got an unbelievable group coming in,” Calipari told reporters in the wake of his latest March loss.
The same could be said for Rutgers, but the Scarlet Knights and their fans should note Kentucky’s cautionary tale this season.
“They’re 18 years old, and they’re in this era where everyone’s telling them how great they are,” Wright said. “‘Just show up in college, and you’re going to win.’ It doesn’t happen that way. And the more that guys stay in college because of the NIL, it’s going to be tougher for young teams like these to be successful.”
In other words, somewhere out there is another Jack Gohlke waiting to make his mark in March.
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Adam Zagoria is a freelance reporter who covers Seton Hall and NJ college basketball for NJ Advance Media. You may follow him on Twitter @AdamZagoria and check out his Website at ZAGSBLOG.com.