Defiant, Depleted Twins Bullpen Has Been a Saving Grace to Open 2024 Season

In 2023, the Minnesota Twins bullpen ranked 21st in Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR), generating just 3.2 fWAR over 556 1/3 innings pitched. Star closer Jhoan Durán led the unit, generating 1.6 fWAR. Take away the debatably All-Star-worthy closer's production, and the team would have dropped two spots, to 23rd, behind the National League pennant-winning Arizona Diamondbacks and just in front of the much-less-accomplished Chicago White Sox (eek!). Despite generating little fWAR last season, the unit possessed redeeming qualities.

Last season, the Twins bullpen was MLB's second-hardest-throwing unit, generating an average four-seam fastball velocity (vFA) of 95.3 MPH. The only team ahead of them was the Washington Nationals, who famously don't care how hard their pitchers throw ball four. The Twins bullpen also ranked favorably in these statistics:

• Strikeout Percentage (K%) - 25.2% (8th)
• Difference Between Strikeout Percentage and Walk Percentage (K-BB%) - 16.1% (8th)
• Batting Average Against (AVG) - .228 (8th)
• WHIP - 1.25 (7th)
• Left on Base Percentage - 73.3% (10th)

The strikeouts were great; they helped the team escape some tough spots. That said, when opposing hitters did make hard contact against relievers, the results were disastrous for Minnesota's chances of winning games; they frequently blew one- or two-run leads. This phenomenon is evidenced by the 'pen ranking 17th in Win Advancement (+WPA), generating just 47.63 last season. At the same time, the bullpen did an impressive job of not advancing losses, ranking 10th in Loss Advancement (-WPA) last season. The 2023 Twins bullpen was a fickle bunch, including Durán, which is why it wasn't surprising when the front office elected to spend a significant portion of its limited resources to improve the unit this past offseason. 

During the four months between Game 4 of the ALDS on October 11, 2023, and pitchers and catchers reporting to Fort Myers on Valentine's Day, the Twins signed, claimed, or traded for MLB-caliber relievers Josh Staumont, Ryan Jensen, Justin Topa, Daniel Duarte, Zack Weiss, Jay Jackson, and Steven Okert. Entering Spring Training, Jensen and Duarte had been removed from the 40-man roster and retained on minor-league deals. Staumont, Topa, Jackson, and Okert were expected to figure into the team's Opening Day eight-reliever bullpen. Unfortunately, Staumont and Topa suffered injuries during camp, joining Durán and Caleb Thielbar as veteran arms unable to contribute for the time being.

Among the multitude of additions made this offseason, the only players contributing to the parent club are Jackson, Okert, and Duarte. The three offseason additions joined returning arms Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart, Jorge Alcalá, Kody Funderburk, and Cole Sands to create the first iteration of the Twins' 2024 bullpen. Now, this group of arms is an unconventional cohort, and you would be hard-pressed to find a casual baseball fan able to name any of the hurlers who comprise it. That said, this isle of misfit arms has been the saving grace of the World Series-hopeful club. Primarily due to needing to mop up Bailey Ober's career-worst outing last Sunday, the club's bullpen ranks only 12th in fWAR, generating 0.1 fWAR. Yet, the group is thriving in nearly every other meaningful category.

Since the Nationals began caring about how hard they throw ball four, they have presumably developed performance anxiety, allowing the Twins to take the top spot in vFA this season. On average, Minnesota's pen arms hit 96.4 MPH with their four-seam fastballs. Similar to last year, the bullpen has been able to reside toward the top of the league in many advanced metrics:

• K% - 29.6% (5th)
• K-BB% - 18.5% (9th)
• AVG - .139 (2nd)
• WHIP - 0.89 (4th)
• LOB% - 100% (2nd) 

The unit is also getting hitters to hit the ball softly in the air, evidenced by its ranking second in fly ball rate (FB%) and seventh in the percentage of balls in play that were hit with soft speed (Soft%). The team has been able to keep the ball in the ballpark, and while this is an encouraging sign, the numbers are likely skewed, having played most of their games in Kauffman Stadium, one of the least home run-friendly ballparks in MLB.

Veterans Stewart, Jax, and Okert have shined in one-inning roles. However, Jackson, Alcalá, Duarte, Funderburk, and Sands have done an admirable job pitching multiple innings in close games. When starting pitcher Louie Varland struggled to get through four innings against the Milwaukee Brewers this past Tuesday, Alcalá and Jackson tossed four scoreless innings, almost helping the Twins construct a late-inning comeback win. Then, when fifth starter Chris Paddack weaved in and out of danger through four innings pitched against Milwaukee the next day, Duarte took the wheel for two innings, giving up a solo shot to Brewers rookie outfielder Jackson Chourio. Duarte's efforts led the way to a Twins comeback and allowed Stewart, Jax, and Okert to mow through the Brewers order in the game's final three innings and pull off a 7-3 victory to split the series. 

Despite losing the home opener to the Cleveland Guardians on Thursday, young relievers Funderburk and Sands kept the Twins in the game during the later innings, giving up zero runs in 3 1/3 innings of relief. The Twins' grouping of inexperienced high-velocity bullpen arms, Alcalá, Jackson, Duarte, Funderburk, and Sands, has been tasked with pitching multiple innings, preserving leads, and not letting games get out of hand to provide the offense with an opportunity to make a comeback.

The four of them have answered the call, providing high-leverage relievers Okert, Stewart, and Jax the opportunity to thrive in single-inning spurts. With the offense sputtering and most of the starting rotation struggling to pitch four innings, the bullpen has been a saving grace for the Twins early this season. With veterans Staumont, Topa, Thielbar, and Durán set to return relatively soon, the unit should become even more formidable as the season continues.